Beijing — Thousands of Buddhist monks and other Tibetans clashed with the riot police in a second Chinese city on Saturday, while the authorities said they had regained control of the Tibetan capital, Lhasa, a day after a rampaging mob ransacked shops and set fire to cars and storefronts in a deadly riot. Conflicting reports emerged about the violence in Lhasa on Friday. The Chinese authorities denied that they had fired on protesters there, but Tibetan leaders in India told news agencies on Saturday that they had confirmed that 30 Tibetans had died and that they had unconfirmed reports that put the number at more than 100.
The news from China is again of rioting and death.
This unrest comes just a week after ten Australians were caught up in a hijacking in China.
This report from The Age on 6th March 2008:
Ten Australians were caught up in a dramatic hijacking in a popular Chinese tourist city yesterday when a man boarded their bus armed with explosives and kept the terrorised tourists captive for several hours.
The Chinese hijacker, who had threatened to blow up the centre of Xian, was later killed by a sniper, the Xinhua news agency reported.
The 10, who escaped unharmed, were all travel agents on an educational tour of China.
The threat of unrest in China is growing. With the Olympics just over three months away the security of athletes and spectators must be of concern to all. China has spent billions to make sure the Olympics are a success but recent events are putting a question mark over the decision to hold the event in China.
Inflation is on the increase and again likely to cause even more security problems. As the Voice of America reports:
Chinese officials say inflation in China is at its highest level since 1996, at 8.7 "How will the authorities respond to this? Are they going to increase subsidies and try to cover up the problem until the Olympics because they don't want to be embarrassed by demonstrations going into the Olympics. Or will they react with a stick and treat demonstrators harshly?" he asked.
In 1988 and again in the mid 1990s, inflation rates in China were around 20 percent, causing protests in several areas. Many political analysts say high inflation contributed to the public anger that sparked the massive pro-democracy demonstrations in Tiananmen Square, which the government crushed in June 1989.
In China, food accounts for about a third of most people's spending, and for the poor, it consumes half their incomes.
percent. The level is worrisome, but even more disconcerting is a 23.3 percent jump in food prices last month, which caused the overall increase.
The country's statistic bureau says pork prices are up more than 63 percent, compared with this time last year. Fresh vegetables are up 46 percent and cooking oil is up 41 percent.
Not only are the Olympics under threat; the world and Australia in particular is relying on continued growth in China to protect the global economy from the recession in the US.
The big question is – can the hardliners continue to keep this very diverse country from breaking apart?
Anti-Western protest stir a patriotic nationalism in China.
Chinese all over the world are protesting against the West. We should be careful not to stir the sleeping dragon.
Just like Australia was proud and came together at the Sydney Games, the Chinese will rightly be drawn together during the Beijing Games. We forget about our record concerning our indigenous population. We should cut some slack for China. For every finger we point three come back to us.
China's President, Hu Jintao meets Taiwan's next V.President.
First Rudd's visit, now a meeting between China's President and Taiwan's new Vice President. It's all happening in China at the moment. A step in the right direction, I am sure the two Chinas will benefit from a closer relationship and step away from a possible conflict.
Terrorism at the Beijing Olympics
Terrorism at the Beijing Olympics is a real threat to all who attend.
Its hard to be different in China.
Big questions for China, as over a billion people come to grips with their diversity. Let's hope the coming out of China will be a peaceful process.
Clinton calls for Bush to boycott opening ceremony.
As pressure mounts for a boycott of the Olympic opening ceremony it will be very interesting to see if Mr Rudd will refuse to attend.
Olympic flame and Olympic spirit extinguished.
As protesters around the world meet the Olympic torchbearers it is not only the flame that is extinguished. The Olympic spirit too has been lost.
The decision to hold the Olympics in China must now be regretted by the IOC.
Life in prison for holding up a placard.
It is not only China that is ignoring human rights. The Burmese government is also afraid of protesters.
The support China gives to the Burmese military junta is helping to keep another totalitarian government in power.
People in China are asking for religious freedom.
China is finding it increasingly difficult to keep the lid on ethnic tensions. The threat of violence will only keep the peace for short intervals; eventually the built up tensions explode.
Time to speak out about the repression of activists.
China is ignoring its promise to improve human rights and the IOC is going against the Olympic charter.
Is the disregard of human rights the price we are willing to pay to see a successful Beijing Olympics?
A bill to stop GWB from going to the Olympics.
World leaders are still thinking twice about going to Beijing's opening ceremony.
From Berlin to Beijing a call for an peoples boycott.
Senator Andrew Bartlett is drawing parallels with the Berlin Olympics and the Beijing Olympics.
It is worth noting that the Fundamental Principles of Olympism, part of the Olympic Charter adopted by the IOC, include the following:
The Berling Olympics
Boycott the Berling Olympics?
Why not? The commies led a boycott of the 1984 Los Angeles Olympics, after all.
And pinkos have no qualms about boycotting Israeli academics because they're, you know, "racist".
They should be delighted to boycott the Berling Olympics.
A nice touch would be if every time China won a medal, it was announced as a win for Tibet - seeing as Tibet is China apparently.
European leaders will boycott olympic opening ceremony.
As more of the world's leaders think twice about attending the opening ceremony of the Olympics, our new Prime Minister must make a choice between business and support for human rights.
New PM
John Pratt: "As more of the world's leaders think twice about attending the opening ceremony of the Olympics, our new Prime Minister must make a choice between business and support for human rights."
Can you imagine our Kev saying anything to the Chinese on his forthcoming trip, I know he speaks Mandarin so he will know what "P*** O**" means when he hears it.
As for Kevin's water plan which he should have ready by 2011 (that's three years away), with the way Labor works at both at State and Federal level we will be lucky to see anything by 2015.
*Genocide Olympics" campaign.
This article in the New York Times is by Ilan Greenberg, an adjunct fellow with the Asia Society. China promised to improve its human rights law in its effort to win its right to hold the Olympic games it is time the world held China to its promise.
135 people dead and 1000 injured in Tibet.
The ABC is reporting that the death toll is rising in Tibet. The Tibetan people have a right to exist, the world will not have a better chance to effect change in China than it has now in the lead up to the Olympics.
China has not lived up to its promise to improve human rights and the world should now voice its disapproval and shift the games to another country. Even if it means a delay.
Yugoslavia - economic superpower of the Third Millennium
Dylan Kissane, concerning how "China and Japan are rising" and how in "only a decade's time" this new epicentre of power will force a re-alignment of economic and security dependency in the region, I'd take that sort of thing with a grain of salt, actually.
I mean, in some respects, China is now more or less where Japan was in the 1930s, challenging the US and other powers in the Pacific, and in other respects where Japan was in the 1960s, her economic growth about to "overwhelm" the west and the USA in particular.
And it's very interesting to look back to the 1960s and 1970s in particular to see what was being said then about Japan's economic growth then.
Have a look at this:
Annual average growth rates of real GDP (%)
Country 1950-1960 1960-1970
Total Per capita Total Per capita
Japan 8.0 6.8 10.6 9.4
USA 2.9 1.2 4.6 3.2
UK 2.7 2.3 2.8 2.1
West Germany 7.7 6.6 4.6 3.6
France 4.4 3.3 5.7 4.6
Belgium 2.7 2.0 4.5 3.9
Netherlands 4.6 3.3 5.3 4.0
Sweden 3.6 2.9 4.3 3.5
Italy 5.5 4.9 5.2 4.4
Source: Kevin Allen and Andrew Stevenson, ‘An introduction to the Italian economy’, 1974, p49, Barnes & Noble Imports.
ISBN is 0064901564
Not only was the United States's growth in GDP in the 1960s being surpassed by Japan at a phenomenal rate but by just about everyone else, too.
This was largely because US growth was over an enormous economic base - and more importantly, because the growth of countries like Japan and Germany was over a much lower base, so their growth rates were impressive.
Despite that, Japans growth continued to surge well into the 1970s as you can see.
Moreover, USA growth in the 1960s was much lower than recent levels of growth in the USA.
For example, US gross domestic product (GDP) growth, adjusted by Reuters for international comparisons, was seen at 4.5 percent in 2004 before slipping to 3.9 percent in 2005.
So, it's clear the USA economy is not failing at all.
Moreover, look at the sorts of predictions that were made about Japan in the 1970s overtaking the USA economically.
This from the World Bank 'World Tables' for 1971, as published in Richard G Lipsey's Positive Economics, Fourth Edition, Harper & Rowe, July 1975, p 715.
'At the growth rates of the last two decades, many industrial countries were catching up to the American level of per capita national income," says Lipsey in 1975.
He then presents a table of figures which shows the USA with an average annual growth rate of just 2.2 per cent, being rapidly out-paced by Japan with a whopping 8.6 per cent, West Germany at 5.0 per cent, Italy at 5.1 per cent and Yugoslavia at 5.1 per cent amongst others.
Even the United Kingdom was keeping pace with US growth.
The inevitable outcome? The years in which the US would be overtaken by the top five competing economies are listed as follows:
Yugoslavia???
Rising China
Eliot: "Dylan Kissane, concerning how "China and Japan are rising" and how in "only a decade's time" this new epicentre of power will force a re-alignment of economic and security dependency in the region, I'd take that sort of thing with a grain of salt, actually."
Both the articles cited in that comment were published in a security studies journal and not an economics journal. Thus, the conclusions relate to future Australian security and (in the main) the strategic alliances that Australia should pursue. As a result, a growing Chinese economy - while significant for many reasons - is not why I concluded that China would overtake the US in the region in the next decade.
I considered six factors which historically have been associated with powerful states: military expenditure, number of military personnel, military expenditure per military personnel (to help account for R & D and new technologies), domestic iron and steel production, energy consumption and the proportion of the total population that is urbanised. The economic growth rate was not explicitly considered and mentioned only in passing as an enabler:
I agree with you that extrapolating GDP growth rates is a poor predictor of future international power. I have many friends in the former Yugoslavia who I am sure would smile at the notion of a 21st century Yugoslav hegemon. Note, though, that my argument for China and Japan emerging as a 'new epicentre' of power are not based on GDP growth rates or on either state overtaking the US in economic terms. My conception (like yours) of what makes a state powerful and what constitutes a 'major power' or 'great power' is somewhat broader than Mr Lipsey's World Tables.
Reporting to headquarters
Kevin Rudd is making a trip to China on April 19.
There are two apparent purposes for this:
Perhaps Kevin will bring up the matter of human rights and Tibet then?
Talk's cheap
Not me. I've always seen it as a ramshackle empire. That's why it's going to fall to pieces as its economy becomes more and more decentralised, more connected to international markets and planning becomes too complex for Beijing to manage centrally. All those massive state owned businesses are probably power centres in themselves and they'll be chomping at the bit before long. It'll make the break-up of the USSR look like the amicable rivalry of interschool ladies hockey by contrast.
"That includes Bob Brown who does speak the truth but knows in his heart it will be fall on deaf ears. All he can do is keep saying it and hope one day things will change."
Talk's cheap. And given enough time, Bob will cover every base with his blather. But he'll never have to do anything. Nothing.
A Fatal Mistake
People often assume China is one giant homogeneous country that acts as one, rather than a series of provinces with powerful leaders without whose co-operation the central government would be mincemeat. That went for Mao who sought their co-operation and got it and it goes for the current mob.
If anyone thinks that using China's current abuses will be an excuse to attack Rudd, they must be dreaming. That includes Bob Brown who does speak the truth but knows in his heart it will be fall on deaf ears. All he can do is keep saying it and hope one day things will change.
Fantasy is the rule of the day in much of the world, as Dick Cheney demonstrated in Iraq just a few days ago when he declared the invasion a complete success while a bomb killed 30 people in a market. Same same China but the people are far more practical. Why would those powerful rulers of the provinces want the country to break up into anarchy? What's in for them? These aren't an ideological bunch – far more practical.
I also believe the Olympics are going to be a bit of a washout but mainly because it's heading that way anyway. The last great one was actually here and it's been downhill all the way since. An orgy of corporate excess that people are just becoming very tired of – a bit like that silly thing in Melbourne where those noisy cars go round in circles for a few days.
The neo-Comm agenda for a new century
Dylan Kissane says:
I was reflecting on this overnight. A 'switch to China' combined with the much-longed-for 'collapse of the USA' would have lots of benefits for Australia.
Take for example the recent decline in the value of the US dollar.
That alone could eliminate our pesky, irritating film industry for example, making its current competitive advantage in shooting major block-busters like the Superman series and other major location epics, or annoying, labour intensive animated features about Penguins totally void.
And American produced television will be much more attractive on international markets.
Then, why build Ford Falcons here when Ford will now be able to do do them heaps cheaper in Detroit? Or Mexico?
Why grow fruit here?
Then there's the withdrawal of USA power from the western and south Pacific - something the Left un-intelligensia have been praying for 60 years.
Now it's a possibility.
The Yanks have always favoured China over Japan and India, anyway, so having the USA out of the way will open up all sorts of opportunities for new (or revived) rivalries between the three burgeoning Asian superpowers.
Perhaps more wars over the Himalayas, Taiwan, the Kurile Islands, Korea, etc.
Australia will be optimally positioned in the cross-fire zone to benefit from the geopolitical destabilisation of the pan-Pacific region. Like in 1942.
I think the neo-Comms are on to something.
Or perhaps just on something.
Dalai Lama threatens to resign as head of state.
This is what I call political leadership, a politician threatening to resign if his people continue with violence. Pity other leaders don't have the same convictions.
Why Rudd is not talking...
It's time to stand up for moral equivalence
Thank God we have someone of the integrity of Bob Brown to stand up to godless communism...
For example, this is how Senator Brown forthrightly confronted the Chinese President during his recent trip to Australia;
No nonsense, there.
At one point, Senators Brown and Kerry Nettle confronted the President face to face and tried to force a protest letter on him...
Oh, no wait. That was the other President, wasn't it?
Dylan Kissane says:
They'll be too busy gloating over the "demise" of the USA and the west to notice.
Actually, they're probably deluding themselves...
And stating the bleeding obvious from an economics viewpoint...
John Pratt is probably closer to the truth in pointing out that economic transformation will do for the "Chinese communist dictatorship" precisely what it did for it "Russian communist dictatorship" counterparts a few years ago. Tear it to shreds.
Large swaths of disunity in China.
This report from John Lee in this morning's Australian shows that many are suffering in modern day China. It is going to be a very hard task for the corrupt government to keep 1 billion people under control as the cost of food and energy continues to skyrocket.
We'd be chop suey in no time
"Perhaps China will be our new great and powerful friend?"
Naaaah. China's already North Korea's great and powerful friend.
Still, everyone's so excited about China "spreading her wings" and "overthrowing US imperialism" in the Asia Pacific Region and everything.
Then there are the benefits of tying our economy to theirs. Or, just having them buy our economy outright.
Who knows? Maybe they'll run the Pilbara with the same measured judgement and regard for local sensibilities as in Tibet?
It will be good to get the Yanks off our backs, finally. And then we can perhaps play China of against the Japanese.
That way, if they try to start dictating terms of trade, or how we should relate to our neighbours in the region and the like, we can appeal to both their profound senses of moral integrity and shared values and stuff.
Powerful Friends
Evan: "Perhaps China will be our new great and powerful friend?"
A couple of years ago I published an article in Security Challenges on this theme which concluded:
In the same issue of that journal Joseph Siracusa argued:
One world, two absolutely contrary views: so goes the discipline of international relations.
Eliot rightly points to some of the moral issues that will surely come to the fore should Australia choose to 'switch' to China. For the record, I didn't really consider such issues in suggesting that the government reflect on the merits of a Sino-Australian security alliance. Indeed, I noted that "whether the Australian people would accept such a move remains debateable" and the reasons it would be debateable include, obviously, the sorts of things Eliot mentioned.
However, I do remain convinced that Australia will one day soon have to start considering what the continued decline of the US and the relative rise of China means for its security strategies in the Asia-Pacific. Even someone as pro-American as myself can realise that - as much as I wish it would endure - American predominance in the region won't last forever.
No Worries!
Hi Dylan,
I don't think any human rights concerns will give the Australian government pause. Bombings of Cambodia, interference in South American nations, invasions condemned by traditional allies. Through it all Australia supported the US.
Then there is the Indonesian killing of Australian journalists. The abandoning of our own citizens to Guantamo.
I wish this kinds of things did give the Australian government pause. I see no evidence that they will.
I'm not America bashing - I see no evidence China would be better; the way they treat their own citizens inclines me to think the reverse.
Contemplating international relations can make me awfully depressed awfully quickly.
A people's war?
How can China call this a People's War?
It is obvious that the Tibetan people do not support the Chinese government and the invasion of Tibet.
The economic god
We are seeing the major problem with globalisation and economic growth as it rears its head worldwide. It doesn't work when you add people to the equation. It was clear China would collapse years ago as anyone with brain would have seen. Like all economic growth which devours resources rapidly in wanton uncontrolled fashion purely for the greed of the elite, it's unsustainable. This year's Olympics will be a big flop as pollution, dissent and security clamp downs, along with the collapsing social and economic situations, leave Chinese leaders with no options under the gaze of the world. Hail the economic god. Reality is proving it's a myth and, just like all gods, a total failure.
Surprise, Surprise
Human rights and an Olympic boycott
The ABC reports today:
It seems that guarantees about improvements in human rights have been ignored by the Chinese government. Maybe a call to boycott the Olympics might grab their attention.
New Friends?
Perhaps China will be our new great and powerful friend?