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21st century climate blueprints: References


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  4. Lenton, T.M., et al., 2008. Tipping points in the Earth system. PNAS, 105, 1786–1793 _ http://www.pnas.org_cgi_doi_10.1073_pnas.0705414105/; http://researchpages.net/ESMG/people/tim-lenton/tipping-points/. http://www.pnas.org/content/105/6/1786.abstract; Easterling and Wehner, 2009. Is the climate warming or cooling? Geophys. Res. Lett. 36, L08706 (http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2009GL037810.shtml); Eby, M., et al., 2009. Lifetime of Anthropogenic Climate Change: Millennial Time Scales of Potential CO2 and Surface Temperature Perturbations, J. Climate, 22, 15 May 2009; Dakos, V., et al., 2008. Slowing down as an early warning signal for abrupt climate change. PNAS, 105, 14308–14312. (http://www.pnas.org_cgi_doi_10.1073_pnas.0802430105/. Slowing down as an early warning signal for abrupt climate change ); Stipp, D., 2004. The Pentagon’s Weather Nightmare: the climate could change radically, and fast. That would be the mother of all national security issues. Http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2004/02/09/360120/index.htm.
  5. Zachos, J.C, et al., 2008. An early Cenozoic perspective on greenhouse warming and carbon-cycle dynamics, Nature 451 (7176): 279–83; Royer, D. L., 2006. CO2-forced climate thresholds during the Phanerozoic. Geochim. et Cosmochim. Acta, 70, 5665–5675; Royer, D.L. et al., 2004. CO2 as a primary driver of Phanerozoic climate. GSA Today, 14, 4–10; Royer, D.L., et al., 2007. Climate sensitivity constrained by CO2 concentrations over the past 420 million years. Nature, 446. doi:10.1038/nature 05699; Beerling, D.J., Berner R.A., 2005. Feedbacks and the coevolution of plants and atmospheric CO2. PNAS, 102, 1302–1305; Berner, R.A. 2004. The Phanerozoic Carbon Cycle: CO2 and O2, Oxford University Press, New York; Berner, R. A., 2006. GEOCARBSULF: A combined model for Phanerozoic atmospheric O2 and CO2. Geochim. et Cosmochim. Acta, 70, 5653–5664; Berner, R.A., Vandenbrook, J.M.,Ward, P.D. 2007. Oxygen and evolution. Science 316, 557–558.
  6. de Menocal, P.B., 2004. African climate change and faunal evolution during the Pliocene-Pleistocene. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 220, 3–24; Dowsett, H.J., et al., 2005. Middle Pliocene sea surface temperature variability. Paleoceanography, 20, PA2014; Haywood, A., Williams, M., 2005. The climate of the future: clues from three million years ago. Geology Today, 21 (4), 138–143.
  7. Anderson, K., Bows, A., 2008. Reframing the climate change challenge in light of post-2000 emission trends. Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. London, doi:10.1098/rsta.2008.0138; Global Carbon Project (http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/). Hansen, J.R. et al., 2006, Global temperature change. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. 101, 16109–16114. Hansen, J.R., 2007. Climate change and trace gases. Philosophical Transactions Royalk Society London, 365A, 1925–1954; Hansen, J., et al., 2008. Target CO2: where should humanity aim? http://arxiv.org/abs/0804.1126.
  8. Gingerich, P. D., 2006. Environment and evolution through the Paleocene — Eocene thermal maximum. Trends Ecol. Evolution 21, 246–253; Sluijs, A.,et al., 2007 Subtropical Arctic Ocean temperatures during the Palaeocene/ Eocene thermal maximum. Nature, 441, 610–613.
  9. Walter, K.M., Smith, L.C., Chapin, F.S., 2005. Methane bubbling from Siberian thaw lakes as a positive feedback to climate warming. Nature, 443, 71–75.
  10. Chen, J.L., Wilson, C.R., Blankenship. D.D., Tapley, B.D., 2006. Antarctic mass rates from GRACE. Geophysical Research Letters 33, L11502; Frederick, T.R. E., Krabill, S. Martin, C., 2006. Progressive increase in ice loss from Greenland. Geophysical Research Letters 33, L10503, doi:10.1029/2006GL026075; Hanna, H., Huybrechts, P., Janssens, I., Cappelen, J., Steffen, K., Stephens A., 2005. Runoff and mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet: 1958–2003. Journal Geophysical Research, 110, D13108; NASA 2006. Greenland ice loss doubles in past decade, raising sea level faster, news release, 16 Feb. http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/ Nasa News/2006 /2006021621775.html; National Snow and Ice Data Centre [NSIDC], 2008. http://nsidc.org/NSIDC, 2008, http://nsidc.org/news/press/20080325_Wilkins.html; Steffen, K., Huff R., 2002. A record maximum melt extent on the Greenland ice sheet in 2002. Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado at Boulder, CO 80309-0216); Steffen, K., Nghiem, S.V., Huff, R., Neumann, G., 2004. The melt anomaly of 2002 on the Greenland Ice Sheet from active and passive microwave satellite observations. Geophysical Research Letters, 31 (20), L2040210.1029/ 2004GL020444; Steffen, K. and Huff, R., 2002. A record maximum melt extent on the Greenland ice sheet in 2002. Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado at Boulder; Velicogna, I., Wahr, J. 2006. Measurements of Time-Variable Gravity Show Mass Loss in Antarctica, Science, 311.
  11. Rahmstorf, S.R., 2006. A Semi-Empirical Approach to Projecting Future Sea-Level Rise. Science, 315, 368–370; Church, J.A., White, N., 2006. A 20th century acceleration in global sea-level rise. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L01602, doi:10.1029/2005GL024826, 2006. http://www.pol.ac.uk/psmsl/author_archive/church_white/GRL_Church_White_2006_024826.pdf;
  12. Bryden, H.L., et al., 2005. Slowing of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 25N. Nature 438, 655–657.
  13. Rising natural disasters and insurance costs between 1950 and 2006: Values in $billion. Source: http://www.draeger-stiftung.de/HG/internet/SD/pdf/charts_hoeppe.pdf; Webster, P.J., Holland, G.J., Curry, J.A., Chang, H.R., 2005. Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment, Science, 309, 1844–1846.
  14. IPCC 2007 SPM-2. http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/Report/AR4WG1_Print_SPM.pdf; http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2008/07/aerosols-chemistry-and-climate/;
  15. Raupach et al., 2007. Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions. PNAS June 12, 2007 vol. 104 no. 24 10288-10293. http://www.pnas.org/content/104/24/10288/suppl/DC1;
  16. Glikson, A.Y., 2008. Milestones in the evolution of the atmosphere with reference to climate change. Aust. Journal Australia Earth Science, 55, 125–140
  17. http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=d97echlg1&show_article=1 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_air_capture; Lenton, T. M., N. E. Vaughan, N.E., 2009. The radiative forcing potential of different climate geoengineering options. http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/9/2559%20/2009/acpd-9-2559-2009.pdf

Figure 1.

Top: Atmospheric CO2 and continental glaciation 400 Ma to present.

Vertical bars mark the timing and palaeo-latitudinal extent of ice sheets. Plotted CO2

records represent five-point running averages from each of the four major proxies:

stomata leaf pores, phytoplankton, Boron, pedogenic carbonates.

Middle: Global compilation of deep-sea benthic foraminifera 18O isotope records from 40 Deep Sea Drilling Program and Ocean Drilling Program sites updated with high-resolution records for the Eocene through Miocene interval.

Bottom: Detailed record of CO2 for the last 65 Myr. The range of error for each CO2 proxy varies considerably, with estimates based on soil nodules yielding the greatest uncertainty. Also plotted are the plausible ranges of CO2 from three geochemical carbon cycle models. (After figure 6, http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/Report/ AR4WG1_Print_Ch06.pdf)

Figure 2. One realization of the globally averaged surface air temperature from the ECHAM5 coupled climate model forced with the SRES A2 greenhouse gas increase scenario for the 21st century. Easterling and Wehner (2009). Geophys. Res. Lett. 36, L08706 (http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2009GL037810.shtml

Figure 3. Map of potential policy-relevant tipping elements in the climate system, overlain on global population density. Subsystems indicated could exhibit threshold-type behavior in response to anthropogenic climate forcing, where a small perturbation at a critical point qualitatively alters the future fate of the system. They could be triggered this century and would undergo a qualitative change within this millennium We exclude from the map systems in which any threshold appears inaccessible this century (e.g., East Antarctic Ice Sheet) or the qualitative change would appear beyond this millennium (e.g., marine methane hydrates). Question marks indicate systems whose status as tipping elements is particularly uncertain. Lenton, T.M., et al., 2008. Tipping points in the Earth system. PNAS, 105, 1786–1793 _ http://www.pnas.org_cgi_doi_10.1073_pnas.0705414105/
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