Webdiary - Founded and Inspired by Margo Kingston

After twelve years of Webdiary, it's time to hang up the green eyeshades.

The International Energy Agency is not a bunch of green tree-huggers. The following Executive Summary from their new report is a significant input to other debates here and elsewhere. Headlines: "Oil could hit $150 a barrel soon if investment in the Middle East and North Africa fails to rise with demand" : "If fossil fuel infrastructure is not rapidly changed, the world will 'lose for ever' the chance to avoid dangerous climate change." : "Delaying action is a false economy: for every $1 of investment avoided in the power sector before 2020 an additional $4.3 would need to be spent after 2020 to compensate for the increased emissions."

Back in March 2008, I put down my prediction that later that year the oil price would reach $145 and bring an end to world economic growth. Now we're back at $90, will it happen again?

We've just been informed that the site will be migrated to new hardware sometime in the next 7 days - the exact date is pending. This will incur some downtime, and may result in unforeseen issues with the site. If you notice anything wrong with the site over this period please let me know at gm-at-webdiary.com.au

Mark Lynas has posted on the Guardian a fascinating and depressing first person account of the final Heads of State meeting. How do I know China wrecked the Copenhagen deal? I was in the room

The following editorial will be printed today by 56 newspapers in 20 languages, mostly on the front page. "... both the Sydney Morning Herald and Melbourne Age dropped out of the project after climate change convulsed Australian politics, demanding, they felt, a more localised editorial position." Write and tell them they were wrong.

Fiona & Richard are both in need of a break, and I'm in London, still. So, we'll close the comment boxes for a while and have a break. 

A quarter or two where the GDP manages a dribble of growth isn't "out of recession". If I'm right about the likely oil price reaction to any sustained return to growth, we possibly never will be.

Stats and financials for June and the financial year

May stats & financials

The UK's Sustainable Development Commission has released a major new report: 'Prosperity without Growth?: the transition to a sustainable economy' which proposes twelve steps towards a sustainable economy and argues for a redefinition of "prosperity" in line with evidence about what contributes to people’s wellbeing.

Abbreviated report submitted from a motel in Lightning Ridge, where unexpectedly have free WiFi broadband access (enabling me to use Skype from my iPhone for the first time to compensate for Vodafone having no coverage here - how the world moves on, eh?)

JULY UPDATE: Now we have many dead Australians and the belated pandemic declaration it's probably time to re-open discussion on this one. PS note that no-one knows how many swine flu cases there have been globally, as very few countries actually test everyone with flu symptoms to find out whether they have H1N1 A. Nearly everyone's case numbers are an underestimate.

November site stats & financials.

Then the Gods of the Market tumbled, and their smooth-tongued wizards withdrew; And the hearts of the meanest were humbled and began to believe it was true; That All is not Gold that Glitters, and Two and Two make Four -- Rudyard Kipling, 1919

The US National Intelligence Center releases its quadrennial scenario for the next twenty years. Grim reading.

"If you give me $1, I promise to give you 15¢". The SMH can't understand why people aren't taking up this outstanding offer. I think I can ...

Fox calls Ohio for Obama.

October stats & financials

September stats

August stats

July stats

Yet another story today about how genetically engineered algae can produce much more crude oil per acre than biofuels. But how do the numbers stack up?

If the mainstream science is wrong, we need to reduce GHG emissions even more than is currently planned. Simple really. Now let's get on with it.

According to the Sydney Morning Herald's handy illustration on road closures for today, the Papal flotilla will sail across the Opera House forecourt, and then the motorcade will drive down the centre of the bay into Circular Quay. Should be worth watching them try ...

June and Financial Year stats

Back in February, I wrote that "oil prices will continue to rise until they have suppressed demand back to match supply", and forecast a headline barrel price of $120 in June and $145 at year end. Now it's June and $139.69, what's next?

The Stockholm Network’s Carbon Scenarios describe 3 plausible futures resulting from 3 different approaches to climate policy at the international level. Worryingly, none of the scenarios provides a policy which achieves climate ‘success’ as defined by the UK, EU and UN (a greater than 90% chance of no more than 2°C warming above preindustrial levels).