Who do you trust – a politician or a scientist?

Despite the increased scientific understanding of climate change, and confidence in the science’s conclusions about climate change, public confidence in the science seems to have weakened somewhat in Australia and some other countries since 2008.

That is an extract from Professor Garnaut’s update to his 2008 review.

Professor Garnaut points to the fact that the scientific community is increasingly confident when it comes to the science of climate change. Still many Australians and politicians are not convinced.

Fact: The last decade was the hottest on record.

January 2000 to December 2009 was the warmest decade on record. Looking back to 1880, when modern scientific instrumentation became available to monitor temperatures precisely, a clear warming trend is present, although there was a levelling off between the 1940s and 1970s.
In the past three decades, the GISS surface temperature record shows an upward trend of about 0.36 degrees F (0.2 degrees C) per decade. In total, average global temperatures have increased by about 1.5 degrees F (0.8 degrees C) since 1880.

Fact: Glaciers are melting.

Lonnie Thompson, a glaciologist at Ohio State University, said there is strong evidence from a variety of sources of significant melting of glaciers - from the area around Kilimanjaro in Africa to the Alps, the Andes, and the icefields of Antarctica because of a warming climate. Ice is also disappearing at a faster rate in recent decades, he said.

Fact: Sea level are rising.

High quality measurements of (near)-global sea level have been made since late 1992 by satellite altimeters, in particular, TOPEX/Poseidon (launched August, 1992), Jason-1 (launched December, 2001) and Jason-2 (launched June, 2008). This data has shown a more-or-less steady increase in Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) of around 3.2 ± 0.4 mm/year over that period. This is more than 50% larger than the average value over the 20th century.

Fact: Ocean acidity is rising.

Ocean Acidification is not a peripheral climate issue, it is the other CO₂ challenge. The world's leading marine scientists are warning us that our current rates of carbon emissions are making our oceans more acidic. This is happening so fast that it poses a serious threat to biodiversity and marine life.
Left unchecked, Ocean Acidification could destroy all our coral reefs by as early as 2050. It also has the potential to disrupt other ocean ecosystems, fisheries, habitats, and even entire oceanic food chains.

These are the scientific facts.

But if you believe a politician the world is “more likely to be cooling”.

Senior Liberal Nick Minchin says the globe is more likely to be cooling than warming and has slammed the Government's key climate adviser, Ross Garnaut, as "on the Government's payroll".

During a time of war a leader who wanted to appease the enemy would be called a traitor. It is about time we asked who is paying these people when the scientific evidence is so overwhelming. Whose interests are they supporting?

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Stealing from our kids

Submitted by John Pratt on March 30, 2011 - 12:37pm.

We need a social contract for the 21st century that seals the common desire to create a sustainable industrial metabolism. We must resolve, once and for all, to leave our descendants more than a legacy of nuclear hazards and climate change. This requires empathy across space and time. To promote this, the rights of future generations should be enshrined in the German constitution.

Leading German climate scientist Hans Joachim Schellnhuber talks to SPIEGEL about the lessons of the Fukushima disaster, the future of nuclear energy in Germany and why our society needs to be transformed. "We consume as much oil in one year as was created in 5.3 million years," he warns.

While we continue to steal from the future is it any wonder why our kids are struggling with depression?

High rates of suicide, drug use, binge drinking, casual sex, and other high risk behaviours are an indication of broken family and community relationships

Tim Flannery supports price on carbon

Submitted by John Pratt on March 29, 2011 - 7:07am.

We wish there were a cost-free way to reduce emissions, but there isn't. And a carbon price is a core element of effective climate policy.
The constraint of a carbon price can be a powerful driver to innovation. As this debate continues in Australia, we hope to play our role in helping further understand the perspective of all Australians and help dispel some of the myths and explain some of the facts.
Our politics, politicians and charismatic commentators will no doubt take much of the attention but quietly, in the background, the climate problem is here and is only getting bigger and more important each day.

I ask all who are taking part in this debate to listen to the scientists, not the politicians.

Don't listen to Bob Brown

Submitted by Alan Curran on March 29, 2011 - 9:56pm.

John Pratt, Some good news about the Greens in NSW, MLC David Shoebridge, who was re-elected, said the results were a victory. ''We have seen a Coalition landslide here in NSW, all other players literally decimated,'' he said. ''Against that, the most progressive party in NSW politics has not only held on to our vote but grown our vote to a historic high.'' However the good news is that they failed to win any more seats, even Pauline Hanson won a seat.

''Ultimately it was about a hunger for good government (the Libs) and a belief that the Greens were not an alternative, and never will be

Senator Brown said it was a return to the John Howard situation in Federal Parliament ''where both houses were controlled by the conservatives''. That’s the best news NSW has had for years and showed that the Greens did not pick up any votes from Labor.

THE former Greens MLC Ian Cohen said the party's support for a boycott of Israel may have contributed to disappointing results in Balmain and Marrickville.

The Greens' federal leader, Bob Brown, said the boycott would certainly be looked at in the debrief. ''I'm picking up from the electorate that it was a matter of concern,'' he forgot to say so was the Carbon Tax.

Senator Brown said the Greens would look at why they didn't perform better in Marrickville and Balmain, Neither Ms Byrne nor Mr. Parker fronted the media to explain why voters defecting from Labor appeared to have voted Liberal rather than for the Greens.

If a Federal election was called next week, the Greens and the Independents would be trashed.

Active listening

Submitted by Jay Somasundaram on March 29, 2011 - 5:51pm.

I ask all who are taking part in this debate to listen to the scientists, not the politicians.

My policy, John, is to listen to everybody, but to digest and analyse what they say rather than accept it as gospel.

Scientists provide one set of perspectives, economists other sets, the industry another set and members of the public a fourth. Politicians act as a melting pot, putting it all together - an important role

Justin's recent post on the ethics of our climate science czar is a case in point. (Thanks Justin, excellent find).

Britian conservatives consider a carbon tax.

Submitted by John Pratt on March 21, 2011 - 8:34am.

Political debates about how to respond to climate change are raging around the world. British prime minister David Cameron says he wants to lead 'the greenest government ever' and his government is currently considering a UK carbon tax over and above its participation in the European Union's ETS.

Interesting talk on Radio National Breakfastthis morning by John Gummer, a former UK conservative politician.

Australia is far from leading the world on climate change and the current stance by the Liberal Party is out of step with the rest of the world.

Good taxes and war chests

Submitted by Jay Somasundaram on March 21, 2011 - 6:30pm.

Those who think all taxes are bad don't understand economics. The cigarette tax saves lives. There is broad agreement that the mining tax is good - it slows down an overheated part of the economy.

I have two problems with the Labor carbon tax. Firstly, it is lunacy not taxing imports (and rebating exports). The tax is a way of sending price messages. Sending price messages to domestic produces while ignoring other countries is absurd. They need the message as much as our firms do.

Secondly, the idea of taxes and rebates based on very complicated formulas is going to create a huge administrative cost. Complicated calculations end up in incorrect answers and the wrong price messages.. And a grand war-chest for the elections. Watch the formulas getting manipulated to favour marginal electorates.

Au contraire

Submitted by Scott Dunmore on March 22, 2011 - 6:52pm.

"The cigarette tax saves lives."

Sorry Jay but you didn't put much thought into that did you? For starters most of the cost of a packet of fags is excise (with GST on top) though I'm not going to split hairs on that score; "a tax by any other name would smell as bad" especially if you are a smoker. Now despite what the medical profession would have you believe, lives aren't saved ever, they're merely extended and one must ask is this a good thing. (You've got to remember that medicos are in the same business as the rest of us, namely selling our services and if someone presents with an inoperable lung cancer for instance there's not as much money in it as keeping someone alive for an extended period of time.)

Now what I don't get is how politicians can be so stupid (although I've come to believe it's a pre-requisite for the job). Smokers contribute more brass to government coffers than the whole of the health care budget so the idea that smokers are a burden on society is total bullshit, they should be encouraged, not meant to feel like lepers. Further, it's the non-smoking bludgers that aren't pulling their weight; the bastards live longer, drawing a pension into their eighties and beyond and taking longer to die.

It's a simple statistic Jay, 90% of an individual's life-time health care costs will be incurred in the last two years of their lives, doesn't matter whether it's heart disease, lung cancer, or what.

With an ageing population more and more workers who could be employed in productive work are required for nursing homes and hospices and yet euthanasia is still opposed. Should be mandatory.

The Queen's English

Submitted by Jay Somasundaram on March 23, 2011 - 6:18pm.

Scott, I empathise with virtually all of your views. You are probably right, that the current level of tax is discriminatory, penalising a minority. However, I can't say that even with further thought, I wish to change my phrasing. I was using idiomatic English to raise a broader, quite different point (that taxes are not necessarily bad). For example, saving a life is common parlance despite your somewhat valid logic.

Lighten up

Submitted by Scott Dunmore on March 23, 2011 - 9:27pm.

Jay, it was all a gentle piss take. However you've been around long enough to know my views and no one is going to refute my logic.

The problem humanity faces is the nature of humanity itself.

"We have met the enemy and it is us" Pogo.

Ouch!

Submitted by Jay Somasundaram on March 24, 2011 - 5:14pm.

Masterfully done, Scott. Lesson to me not to take life too seriously.

Hmmm...

Submitted by Scott Dunmore on March 25, 2011 - 1:08pm.

It's a trait of mine Jay to be uncomfortable with praise (unless you're talking about my steak and kidney pies,) but it did get me thinking about myself. What am I still doing here?

"Lesson to me not to take life too seriously". Advice I could take.

'Dreaming when dawn's left hand was in the sky

I heard a voice within the tavern cry."

"Awake my little ones and drain the cup

Before lifes liquor in it's cup be dry""

Despite all I believe for the future I still concern myself with injustices and wrong-headedness. What does it all matter? And yet it does.

sadly....

Submitted by Paul Walter on March 22, 2011 - 12:55am.

Jay, you say you value in a tax scheme used for market signals, including for rationally valid social reasons, as with tobacco. Yet on this you seem to want to dismiss Labor's revised effort at deaing with a real world issue, however imperfectly, without quite being sure whether the accountancy is a big factor or under control. It's still aways off - let's see if they come up with something concrete in figures and economists like Quiggin analyse and what conclusions are reached.

I think the first issue may relate to trade agreements, protocols and long term defence arangements, particularly AUSFTA.

Think about the real world (pulls sad face).

Confessions of a dumb blonde

Submitted by Justin Obodie on March 16, 2011 - 4:46pm.

Fiona, iJustin has been dying his hair grey for 20 years now. I was born a beautiful blonde with an ever so delicate IQ, however since I've been dying my hair grey I've felt far more intelligent. I reckon if I had done the dying thing when I was a kid (many suggested it - often) then iJustin could have been a real homo geniarse.

Paul, if you ever decided to have me for dinner iJustin would feel comfortable in accepting your invitation old mate, but just to be sure I would like you to know that mangy wombats taste like shit, we ain't called vombatus for nuffink.

However, I've been told that the wandering albatross is delicious, a sort after delicacy in fact, can Scott come as well - just to be sure.

Eats, roots, shoots and leaves

Submitted by Scott Dunmore on March 17, 2011 - 11:55am.

Not much of a dinner iJustin, you'd need two of me to make a pie and this stringy old bird would need broiling for 6 hours minimum.

Guess who's coming to dinner

Submitted by Justin Obodie on March 17, 2011 - 2:40pm.

That's OK Scott, I'm sure that Alan or Geoff would be only too happy to take your place. I'm sure that Paul will welcome them, as the gentleman he is, with grace - amen.

Denial, a big river to cross

Submitted by Paul Walter on March 16, 2011 - 9:49am.

On the subject of happy pills and ecology, it's interesting to observe the wave of hostility directed in some quarters toward that great renaissance man and self-proclaimed scientific thinker and climate change "sceptic", Cardinal George Pell, after his attack on a scientist called Ayres at a senate committee hearing a few days ago.

"For whom doth the Pell Toll?

It Tolls for Thee".

What is Prozac?

Submitted by Justin Obodie on March 15, 2011 - 9:36pm.

Even though Prozac passed FDA approval, the drug continues to be a threat because the dangers of Prozac are extremely understated by health care professionals. Most of the populace does not comprehend the extent of adverse reactions that are linked to Prozac. "By December '95 there had already been reported 35,230 adverse reactions to Prozac - including hallucinations, aggression, hostility, assault, manslaughter,and suicide - resulting in a total of 2,394 deaths"

Now that's a real man's drug...

A healthy diet (lots of fruit and veg) and exercise is a far better way to deal with depression and anxiety than selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors - SSRI

And if that fails just get pissed like normal people.

Happy pills that fuck with one's brain chemistry have the potential to be real killers.

They don't even work

Submitted by Jay Somasundaram on March 17, 2011 - 6:13pm.

Anti-depressants don't really work, current meta-studies indicate that except perhaps for the severely depressed, anti-depressants are as effective as placebo.

Old fashioned luvin' on the other hand, definitely works, and is fun to boot.

Anxiolytics, on the other hand, (think barbiturates) do have an (immediate) effect, if that is your thing. I suspect they are less harmful to your body than getting pissed, but like a lot of these things it really depends on the dosage and frequency.

Happy pills versus the kool-ade

Submitted by Paul Walter on March 16, 2011 - 9:36am.

Gawd, now I am the"castrating father/ brother"?

Justin, thanks for trying to bring a little comfort into my day. Whatever else one may say, one never doubts your sensitivity.

Ten years I've been taking them and I still havent grown two heads, turned green or become an axe-murderer.

Mind you, if I ever invite you round for dinner, just think of Hannibal Lecter, hmmm?

Earthquakes could be linked to climate change

Submitted by John Pratt on March 12, 2011 - 8:00am.

All over the world evidence is stacking up that changes in global climate can and do affect the frequencies of earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and catastrophic sea-floor landslides. Not only has this happened several times throughout Earth's history, the evidence suggests that it is starting to happen again.

What a start to the year - cyclones, floods, and two major earthquakes.

Is it possible that climate change could cause earthquakes?

As sea levels rise millions and millions of tons of water are on the move, who knows if they are the straw that breaks the camel's back and trigger off large earthquakes.

Funny you should say that

Submitted by Paul Walter on March 14, 2011 - 4:17pm.

Funny you should say that, John. Was wondering the same thing. Reading somewhere, the rupturing of the original Lake Agassiz, a vast lake formed by the melt at the end of the ice age, was due to "isostatic rebound" of the earth's surface as its elasticity had it spring back after being covered and pressured by billions of tons of glacier ice.

Earthquakes could be linked to Greens jumping up and down

Submitted by Alan Curran on March 12, 2011 - 8:28pm.

John Pratt , Well it did not take long for you to blame the earthquake in Japan on climate change.

It looks as though you have beaten your leader Barmy Bob to it.

It is frightening when you think that people who make statements like you have, actually are allowed to vote.

Don't forget the Super Moon on March 19th. it will probably cause all sorts of climate change.

An open mind

Submitted by John Pratt on March 13, 2011 - 11:02am.

Alan, I didn't say earthquakes are linked to climate change.

I just said that other are thinking there may be a link.

I find my mind works best when it is open.

A socialist plot

Submitted by Paul Walter on March 15, 2011 - 10:37am.

Like a parachute, John?

Amen to that.

Alan, that is not a "giant moon", that is a large meterorite about to land on top of us, right about now, just like the dinosaurs , In fact (loud permanent silence, in the wake of a huge whummpppph...).

Bugger it, let's go nuclear

Submitted by Richard Tonkin on March 11, 2011 - 8:17pm.

Gillard and Obama look like following through from the Cheney/Howard stageplay.. the bottom-line is that they must in order to prevent India from becoming reliant on Iranian oil. So with our yellowcake being zapped into reactor fodder, passing equally radiant barges returning from the subcontinent to live out their 20l000 years half-life under Australian sands, what the hell, let's go nuclear. It's carbon free and using it will end the regime of those who currently rule this planet.

Richard - you may wish to read this first...

Submitted by Justin Obodie on March 12, 2011 - 11:52am.

Nuclear Expert: "Fukushima Has 24 Hours To Avoid A Core Meltdown Scenario"

Atlas Shrugged

Submitted by Scott Dunmore on March 13, 2011 - 6:51pm.

Nothing to do with Ayn Rand's simplistic inanitey of course.

All of this stuff, from the floods and cyclone in Queensland to Christchurch and now Japan is never a question if but when. It gets better; the Americans years ago built a nuclear plant.... wait for this, right on top of the San Andreas fault.

Paul, I'm on blood pressure pills, stuff for cholesterol and I know about Viagra and Cialis but what's this Prozac? Is it as good as Purple Hearts or Speed?

Oh, brave new world

Submitted by Paul Walter on March 15, 2011 - 2:08pm.

Prozac is a world-famous anti depressive.

I thought eveyone over fifty took it, except pisspots and people who barrack for the right footy side. It has a very distant and indeterminate relationship to amphetimines, if that's you turn-on.

Just read a new post by Jennifer Marohasy, the climate change conservative, where she flies a kite concerning the relationship of earthquakes to full moons.

Addenda

Submitted by Scott Dunmore on March 15, 2011 - 6:06pm.

Yeah well what can you expect. She's probably blonde.

Two Melbourne blonds musing one night; (I don't know what colour Fiona's hair is, by the way)

"What do you think's closer, the moon or Sydney?"

"Hellooooo, can you see Sydney?"

Fiona: Neither do I, Scott.

Not sure about this

Submitted by Scott Dunmore on March 16, 2011 - 4:02am.

Eh, with respect Fiona have you tried looking in the mirror? because knowing does help when picking out a frock. Oh wait a minute you don't see Sydn.......

Forget I said anything.

Fiona: Not at all, Scott. My earlier comment was more obscure than I had intended. Having started with almost jet-black hair, I have been going grey for years, and also for years have used various hues to conceal the grey. Never, however, have I been blonde (sorry, Paul W).

Well that's a relief

Submitted by Scott Dunmore on March 16, 2011 - 5:07pm.

You had me going for a while there Fiona. I thought you really were a "blonde".

Handled my teasing with studied aplomb my dear.

Fiona: Nah, no study needed, Scott ;)

One adjective too many

Submitted by Scott Dunmore on March 17, 2011 - 11:51am.

Skite, I bet you put some thought into it.

Doris Day rides again

Submitted by Paul Walter on March 15, 2011 - 9:27pm.

Fiona, you are blonde too?

Scott, Marohasy looks blonde; a sort of pocket- Albrechtsen but a bit "softer". But could be suicide, "dyed by her own hand".

Sorry Fiona, I try, but once in a while it gets the better of me.

"except pisspots"

Submitted by Scott Dunmore on March 15, 2011 - 5:57pm.

Ah, that explains my ignorance.

Meltdown

Submitted by John Pratt on March 13, 2011 - 2:54pm.

Nuclear plant operator Tokyo Electric Power Co (TEPCO) says radiation levels around the quake-damaged plant have risen above the safety limit, and the government is warning that meltdowns may have possibly occurred at two reactors.

I think the nuclear option will be off limits for a while. Looks like this may be the world's worst nuclear accident we are witnessing.

Our hearts must go out to the people of Japan.

Fiona: I am looking forward to Mr Abbott's response, John.

Whose interests?

Submitted by Fiona Reynolds on March 11, 2011 - 3:42pm.

Oh I dunno, John Pratt - maybe Big Fossil Fuel?

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Who do you trust – a politician or a scientist?

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