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What is Climate Change?John Pratt’s recent post very clearly pointed out a major problem in the Climate Change debate – the parties simply indulge in name calling rather than identify and debate the real issues so as to come to a consensus. To overcome this, I’ve set out below what I think is the chain of logic in the debate. I’ve separated what is generally agreed, from the assumptions. I’ve numbered and highlighted what I believe are the eight assumptions made by climate change proponents. Deniers (or sceptics) are those who disagree with one or more of the assumptions. What becomes immediately obvious is that there is more agreement than disagreement. Nevertheless, it has been said that a chain is as strong as its weakest link, and laying the issues out clearly explains why so many people are so cautious about the emissions trading bill. The Problem The earth’s temperature fluctuates. Several periodic fluctuations are immediately noticeable, such as daily and seasonal cycles. There are also several longer term fluctuations. Short term fluctuations such as daily fluctuations are quite large, and can easily mask long term fluctuations, which are more subtle. (i) We are currently experiencing a small but steady long-term increase in temperature of .02 degrees Centigrade per decade. Many factors cause these fluctuations in temperature. One of the causes of temperature fluctuation is the effect of the atmosphere in trapping heat. Atmospheric carbon dioxide (Carbon) is one of several factors that increase the trapping of heat by the atmosphere. Atmospheric Carbon has fluctuated over the life of the planet. Atmospheric Carbon is currently in an upward phase. Atmospheric Carbon is one stage in the carbon cycle, with Carbon being both released and absorbed into the atmosphere by many sources. Many systems have an ability to achieve stability –an increase in one dimension creates a countervailing force to return to stability. (ii) Human activity (industrialisation) has caused a net increase in atmospheric Carbon. (iii) Human activity causes more than 50% of the temperature increase. There are both benefits and disadvantages to a warmer climate. (iv) The disadvantages of a warmer climate hugely outweigh the advantages. The Solution(v) Global warming is the most important problem facing humanity. (v) The best solution to global warming available to us is to minimise atmospheric carbon. Climate change is a global issue. The world’s climate affects everybody. It needs a global solution, since one country’s actions will affect others. Currently, industry has been getting a free ride, by releasing excess CO2 into the atmosphere rather than treating it as a pollutant, to be controlled. If industry is to manage co2 release, it will increase manufacturing costs. (vi) These increasing costs are an opportunity to transform industry with new solutions, creating jobs and opportunities. A global carbon trading scheme was considered the best economic framework for controlling atmospheric carbon. However, particularly after the financial crisis, world countries were unwilling to put in place a trading scheme. (vii) By Australia going it alone, achieving reductions greater than globally agreed, it can, by setting an example, ultimately make a difference to world climate. (viii) Such changes would not only not adversely affect the current Australian economy, but benefit it in the future.
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Onward and Upward
Justin Obodie: "Thank's for the clarification Paul. But how does one come to terms with the many millions/billions of dollars made fraudulently by the banksters at the expense of the wider community?"
If the legal definition of a crime has been committed, there's laws in place to deal with such things.
There's no such thing as a bad borrower, only a bad lender. Society in this case is the lender. Society employs "our" public managers (politicians), if those employed can't do the job, society should find people that can. No different to a decision any individual may need to make.
Crime isn't any different to any other enterprise. In that it has some people more successful than others. What you put into it is probably what you'll get out of it.
I don't think it would be wonderful. I also don't think such characteristics are the best way to riches. The ever growing prison population leads me to believe the odds are firmly stacked against those that wish to try.
The only thing any individual can do is attempt to change what he/she doesn't like. For the sake of my own sanity I accepted long ago that I probably won't ever change many things I don't like. It doesn't stop me trying, I'm just not down on myself if I fail.
There's no excuse
Justin Obodie, whilst I respect what you're writing (and agree in world terms), I'm writing about today's healthy western world citizens. I accept I should've made that clearer. We do get out of life what we put in to life.
Moral Hazard
Thank's for the clarification Paul. But how does one come to terms with the many millions/billions of dollars made fraudulently by the banksters at the expense of the wider community?
It would appear effort has very little to do with their success, rather crime, deception and political bribery.
Wouldn't it be wonderful if we could lie and cheat our way to riches while the powerless punter has to foot the bill?
Sadly that's how the system works these days and it stinks.
Why say you Paul?
Garbage in - garbage out
Holy shit! the steady state theory of human effort, equity and equilibrium.
Sadly Paul you're thinking of a world the has never existed.
By April 1945 Nazi Germany had murdered at least 6 millions souls of Jewish faith.
Paul, using your above theory does that mean they got what they deserved?
And, are you not familiar with the term "innocence"?
The reality is that for some life is bloody easy, for others not so - and too often it has little to do with ability and eveything to do with opportunity.
Opportunities are hard to find/create in dungeons, and gas chambers lad.
Enjoy your freedom for much of it is at the expense of the innocent.
Think about it.
The future and me
I don't know for certain where my children or their children for that matter, will be in the future. I don't own a crystal ball. My responsibility and my time is now, it's not in some distant future.
Hopefully any future generations will seek and achieve their goals. Hopefully any future generation will also understand nobody will or even can live their lives for them. I hope most of all they don't waste their lives blaming others for the disappointments and set backs that will surely come their way. Most of all I hope they don't use the problems of the world around them as coverage for their own inevitable failures, and as an excuse as to why those failures can't ever be addressed.
People get out of this world exactly what they put into it. It's not easy, it's never been easy, and it'll never be easy. Take out of that whatever you want.
Thou shalt inherit the earth
If You Be My Bodyguard
China isn't succeeding though, well not in "green technology", hence the need for subsidies. Making people give up trade secrets probably isn't the best way to turn this around.
It seems to me your "new way of economics" is a lot like the present European way. And we all know how thats turned out. China should stick to what has worked, and most definately shouldn't change that formula.
The strangest thing is that China would want to sell any breakthrough product to the same people they're locking out of this particular market. It just doesn't make any rational sense.
My educated guess is they don't expect any breakthroughs, and they're certainly not acting as if they do. A protected industry ALWAYS means protected people. Who are the major investors, I wonder.......
Enlightenment
Where ya gunna live, Paul M, when the lights go out? Doubt if your Oz property holdings will be any use then. Don't know where your main place of abode is, but I wouldn't mind betting that it won't be quite as comfy then as it is now.
But never mind, who cares? Won't happen in your lifetime, and your kids will always be ok inside the Secure Dome or whatever that dystopic place will be utopically named...
Why change a winning formula?
John Pratt, industry subsidies always hurt competition. Industry subsidies aren't designed for "better outcomes", they come about to protect the "locals". Restricting competition in the green technology industry isn't going to result in a better industry or product produced.
Industry subsidies don't equal good economic policy. Every dollar given to an industry (usually loss making) comes as a direct cost to somewhere/someone else. I think a government can spend money better than at a pick a winner crap shoot. I'm sure China like everywhere else as many pressing public needs that could do with a few extra "public" bucks.
China is at where it's at because of its use of comparative advantage. That advantage is its large low cost pool of labor. China has successfully complimented this advantage with a host of positives such as less business restrictions (compared to most competitors), positive infrastructure spending, and taking a very positive stance toward business and investment in China.
Generally, China has succeeded because it's the opposite of everything industry subsidies represent.
State capitalism is hard to beat
C'mon, Paul. I agree that state subsidies are usually a bad idea. BUT:
China is succeeding because the state required foreign companies to team with local companies, and pass on their technology.
Just as the East India Company was successful because the British navy ruled the waves.
Just as much of US foreign policy is about ensuring access for US companies.
Naughty Chinese spend up on green technology
As China takes real action on climate change and soars ahead of the rest of the world, the US says it is unfair. Just because the US refuses to act responsibly it should not be surprised when others act courageously.
Capitalism, Chinese style
This article in the NY Times is an in-depth study of how China mixes state power and capitalism. And the article only talks about the Green industry. Visionary strategies such as this are probably going on in every major sector. Yes, they are breaking the rules, but the West has been stacking the deck for decades. They say that the name of the game is not to get caught. That is not true. The real game is to ensure that even if caught, one still comes out ahead.
Elsewhere, here is what Putin is up to. We are definitely seeing the development of multiple threats to US hegemony. Australia may be backing the wrong horse.
When the game is up
Ben would like people to think this way without doubt. Ben however will face the same problem that has befuddled all who've tried before him. The very simple law of mathematics.
For example: If today the Dow is 10 000, and the Dow was 10 000 exactly three years ago, has value remained stable? The simple answer is no, because the currency has been devalued. If one point of the Dow is worth say $1 now, and it was worth $1 three years ago, $10 000 would need to buy the equivalent now as it did then. Clearly with the US dollar devaluation (more is worth less and that includes paper dollars), that's clearly not the case.
The USA has attempted to devalue the dollar for the last forty years. Every devaluation is quickly followed by calls for another devaluation, and so on, and so on. It hasn't worked in forty years, so when will it work?
It wasn't a weak dollar that made the USA an exporting economic powerhouse, and it won't be one that makes it so again. A two bottle of whiskey a day alcoholic won't cure the disease by only drinking one bottle a day. Not dealing with the problem will never solve the problem.
And that is Ben's and all his fellow fraudsters only magical trick. There's just no ace in the deck to turn this monetary slight of hand around. None whatsoever.
Consistency the new black
Jay Somasundaram,the new politics of the situation is the hugely bizarre inconsistency of massive spending intended to stimulate growth. Growth which "we" are apparently being asked to curtail. It doesn't make much sense, does it?
Paying for externalities isn't a one way street. Externalities are paid for in monetary terms, through the various taxation systems around the world. You may have a problem with the amount, however that's a different argument.
The Pacific Islander example is an appeal to emotion. Ignoring the validity of the argument (highly doubtful), it's a moral argument. A moral argument and economics don't mix, and you may ask why? The reason is that morals generally depend on who's doing the preaching. Is the coal industry "bad"? Well how about the education industry? Isn't it this industry that teaches the "evil coal mine engineer"? Do you see or can you imagine the absurd lengths your position can be played out?
Now my next bit may be a little off topic, however I don't think concerning oneself about western middle-class wealth is all that important. I certainly don't think a rush to curtail it is needed. In my opinion and it's shared by a number of people, we are undergoing a transition of this segment of wealth with Asia. Over the next twenty years the western middle-class will contract whilst the Asian middle-class expands. The ramifications of this both economically and culturally are fairly straight forward.
Is research reliable?
An interesting article, showing that the peer reviewed journal process has a major flaw - by picking and publishing only sensational findings: research-reports-are-often-beyond-belief
The article is about medical research, but the same principles apply to climate science.
The Grapes of Wrath - revisted
And this compliments of those "small groups of dominant men":
The end game is being played out as we breathe - unfortunately unproductive financial capitalism has totally divorced itself from industrial capitalism to create a fairy tale world of its own, underpinnded by ever increasing amounts of debt - and delusion.Sooner or later all that debt will have to be written off, or inflated out of existence; take your pick. But in the real world of capitalism if one can't pay their debts then the liquidators are brought in, and the share and bond holders have to cop it on the chin - not the poor bloody taxpayer, their kids and grand kids.
You see, when you think about it, using Ben Benanke's logic all we have to do is print money and inflate our way to prosperity.
It would follow, using such logic, that all we have to do to pay for carbon taxes is print the required amount of cash and be done with it. No need to argue about the price of carbon - price it at $1,000,000,000 if you wish and print the cash to cover it.
It also follows that if we need cash to declare war on, conquer and occupy Mars then all we have to do is print the cash to cover the costs.
In Ben's world it is as easy as that.
The new brave world of dumb
Jay Somasundaram
Are you saying the things produced with carbon emissions are not beneficial to society? Every action causes a reaction, and I don't think consequences have been given due respect. Unfortunately looking at how many people organize their lives, I'd say this particular lack of consideration seems most popular.
You could of course simply write a black and white response, appealing to nothing more than emotion and faith. Again, unfortunately looking at many people, I assume they're quite comfortable with such a presentation of a position.
In a truly free market (none exists) the price will reflect all externalities good or bad. Think of the role weather plays in crop prices for example. It also assumes all share equally in information.
I'm sorry you choose to ignore my summary of "our new politics". I earnestly believe that not only is much of this "stuff" intellectually bankrupt, it lacks to of the most important ingredients of success for individuals, groups, and ideas (policy). I'm referring to discipline and consistency as the key ingredients this new politics lacks, and because of this deficit more bad than good will come from it. I think we're entering a particular dangerous period.
Ps During the last two years the western world has undergone an orgy of government cash splashing. The amounts and methods (such as printing) are at such levels it can't be compared to anything previous. It would have seemed unimaginable only a few years ago. Millions of taxpayers have watched their taxes evaporate and become large debts (stealing from the future). Most of these taxpayers will receive the honour of replacing it or losing something else.
Much of this "new politics" agreed to these measures, and not only that, they claim it as a "success". And what was the number one reason given for this unimaginable largess? The theory was to artifically stimulate consumption back to previous levels, apparently creating growth and all the good stuff that rolls from that such as employment.
Now correct me if I'm wrong, however isn't this what taxes on air and all the new and shiny regulations will be attempting to arrest? Honestly, I don't know if I should be doubled over laughing or crying.
External or internal dumbness?
The disgrace
Jay Somasundaram"The economics of carbon emission are quite simple. Free markets fail in the presence of Externalities".
Economic externalities occur in any market, fair market or otherwise. Economics externalities are either good or bad, and even in that simple definition it more often than not comes down to a personal view. I've no idea why you believe an occurrence of economic externalities (there are often a number of them) automatically signifies a free market failure?
This opinion is the type of self righteous, disrespectful, pap, I give you more respect than ever holding. That type of opinion isn't something held or would ever be held by any person or organisation left or right wing. It can only be held in "our new age", heterogeneous sludge of self advancement politics.
Its only ideology is the unoriginal one stolen from somewhere else, for the no other purpose than helping out on the day. New left or right, I've no idea (and don't care), what they call this intellectually putrid garbage.
This "new politics" doesn't even off slight consistency and honesty. The mass contradictions are an absolute insult, and if one was to live a life the way this politics is formulated, one would be considered totally shameless embarrassment.
And that's probably would the self serving cretins and desperate grifters of this politics will claim when the inevitable happens, and failure is upon us all. One thing with utter failures is they always blame failure they cause on every single person except themselves.
It's anything but surprising these clowns not only won't debate, they won't even mention a number of truths and negative possibilities. Pathetic.
Waffle and market failure
Paul, I'll answer the first issue you raise, and ignore the rest, since I seem to have hit a hot spot. To be honest, the best way I can describe it is as an aristocrat, used to the innate superiority of his position, that` when seriously challenged, can only splutter.
You are quite right that externalities can give be either beneficial or harmful to society. Are you saying that current carbon emission levels are beneficial to society? Per your previous post, that is a climate science issue, not economic one - a different debate.
Ps.On a purely technical note, beneficial externalities also cause market failure. Free market theory is that markets automatically create the right volume of goods at the right price. With beneficial externalities, the amount of goods produced is below optimal, since the price does not reflect the full value of the goods.
Economic house of cards
This report in Nature shows how the global economy is based on a fallacy.
The global financial crisis we are currently experiencing is only the beginning.
As energy becomes more expensive what we have witnessed so far will be like a walk in the park.
How much will coal cost if we add a carbon price or carbon sequestration?
More global rubbish
"Jay ,I agree with you that Global warming is the most important problem facing humanity."
Wrong again Alan, the single most important problem we face is the ever expanding biomass of humanity. We are the most verminous species ever to have evolved.
A real debate
John Pratt, Australians are really greedy not only do we emit four times more C02 than the average Chinaman, we have exported most of our dirty manufacturing industry to China while we continue to consume at an alarming rate.
The size of Australia and it's relatively small and sparse population are things that should be taken into account. Australia is also geographically isolated from the rest of the world, and even within its own borders.
Economics and Climate Science should be debated as separate issues. Economics should'nt over ride all considerations, and I've never claimed it should. I want people to decide these issues after due consideration is given to all the goods and bads of any changes. I even see it as a bit of an obligation for my part.
Personally, I'd doubt more than ten per cent of people have any idea at all about what these economic changes will mean for them.
Real debate
Paul, we had a real debate on Afghanistan. All it did was create more hot air.
The economics of carbon emission are quite simple. Free markets fail in the presence of Externalities. Those who emit carbon without paying for it are stealing to make a profit. We also currently have a number of economic structures that are profoundly skewed because of misplaced attempts to pacify our collective conscience without damaging industry.
The advantage of free markets is that they don't need babying. They rapidly respond to market forces. Businesses that whinge when they get nasty shocks are not the type that can survive in the wild.
Global rubbish
Jay ,I agree with you that Global warming is the most important problem facing humanity.
Now please tell us how we are going to convince China and India to cut down their pollution. Go to China and see the crap they are spewing into the atmosphere, so what ever we do here will be nothing.
However the following sounds like the rantings of Bob Brown, If industry is to manage co2 release, it will increase manufacturing costs, these increasing costs are an opportunity to transform industry with new solutions, creating jobs and opportunities. How is increasing costs going to create jobs?.
Your item (vii) By Australia going it alone, achieving reductions greater than globally agreed, it can, by setting an example, ultimately make a difference to world climate.We will also be the laughing stock all around the world.
Remember how Rudd and Penny Wong told us that the sky would fall in if we did not do what they wanted in Copenhagen, the only thing that happened was they both lost their jobs.
Climate change and pollution are different
We should be careful in mixing climate change and pollution. Carbon trading will only have an indirect effect on smog and river pollution. Most pollution is a national or at best a regional issue, while carbon trading is global (in the former, the harm is locally confined).
I suspect that it is the middle class that worries about pollution, and a sub-set of the middle class (the intellectuals for want of a better word) who worry about climate change. China (and India) have a growing middle class who are becoming more vociferous about pollution.
Australia lags the world
Alan, China is already way ahead of us.
China's first solar thermal power plant began soliciting tenders on Wednesday as the country's efforts to diversify its clean energy sources gathered pace.
Per capita Australia is among the worst polluters.
When we get out Per capita pollution down to the levels of China and India then maybe we can feel proud of ourselves. Until then we have a lot of work to do.
We should be hanging our heads in shame.
Blinkers off
John, China's first solar thermal power plant began soliciting tenders on Wednesday as the country's efforts to diversify its clean energy sources gathered pace.
That's nice of the Chinese, but why did you not mention that they are still bringing online 1 coal powered power station per week.
By the time they have built their first solar thermal power they will have built 50 coal powered stations. Not very well balanced I would think.
Having spent 2 weeks in China in September, I can tell that when I looked out my hotel window at midday I could not see 400 meters because of the pollution.
As I look out of my window in the eastern suburbs of Sydney I can almost see to the Blue Mountains the air is so clear.
John, get out into the real world and take Bob Brown with you, it might just open your eyes to the fact that as long as China and India keep on doing what they are doing we might as well be p*****g in the wind.
Take a trip to China (on Qantas) and have a look, whilst you are there have a look at their polluted rivers.
Australia the clever country?
Alan, I know China well, having lived there for two years. The point is that Australia emits 18.9 metric tons of C02 per capita while China emits 4.9.
Australians are really greedy not only do we emit four times more C02 than the average Chinaman, we have exported most of our dirty manufacturing industry to China while we continue to consume at an alarming rate.
When you point the finger at them, remember, when you point the finger three fingers point back.
Carbon pricing will be a long way from "good"
Climate change is being used simply as an excuse for a broad based consumption tax. Take a look at the first worlds deficits. Take a look at the rate of net taxpayers in first world nations. The numbers I'm afraid, aren't lying.
A broad based consumption tax on energy (read everything) will hurt those that are pushing for it the most. This tax will also not only not address the original problem, it'll worsen the problem.
Economics without bias, makes for easy economics. It's built upon one simple truth called mathematics. The mathematics of any such tax are nightmare reading. If you believe me on any one thing, believe me on this one.
Cost of pollution is not a tax
The use of fossil fuels causes the release millions of tons C02 pollution.
This pollution is causing the planet to warm. The warming is already increasing the price of food. and will cost even more as we adapt to more severe weather and rising sea levels.
It is not a tax to make people pay for their pollution it is simply user pays.
The people who pollute the atmosphere should pay for that pollution.
The same as we pay the garbage man to remove our rubbish.