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The Washed Up
by David Markham

After an allegedly humorous piece I provided on the eve of the ACT election, I was invited to put forward my thoughts after the election.   

So what happened?  The result appears to have been a draw, which confirms my suspicions about the excitement of the electorate.  Apparently we will have an assembly with 7 Labor, 7 Liberal and 3 Greens, although the vagaries of the Hare Brained electoral system may still produce some surprises.  I assume that Jon Stanhope will remain as Chief Minister, as the idea of a Liberal/Green coalition does me head in, guv’nor.

Some commentators have described this as a terrible result for Labor.  I do not see it this way, particularly if one is considering the repercussions for federal politics, of which I suspect there will be none.  My research (yes, I did some) shows that in the five ACT elections between 1992 and 2004 inclusive, Labor’s average percentage of the vote was about 37.5, the same as this time.

While their vote was down substantially on Saturday, it is arguably Labor’s vote in 2004 that was unusual, not this time.  The 2004 ACT election was held one week after the federal election.  I have always been convinced that Labor got some rebound votes, particularly from regular Greens or Independent voters, after the Coalition had won both Houses nationally a few days earlier. 

This time those voters went back to the Greens and others.  There is also little doubt that there is a degree of antagonism in many quarters to the Chief Minister himself, or that his government had made what Sir Humphrey would have described as some ‘courageous’ decisions. 

Although the Liberals may profess themselves happy with the result, they also lost votes, down about three per cent.  Like Labor’s, their vote was normal in an historical sense, if one sets aside the huge personal vote that Kate Carnell used to garner. 

So there you have it – situation average in Canberra.  ‘Go for Coe’ is now one of my electorate’s members of the Assembly.  It strikes me as a bit odd that the Liberal voters in this electorate pretty much preferred the candidates alphabetically.  Next time I may change my name to A.A.A. Aarons and stand for them.

A postscript – Kevin07 may, or may not, have been witty.  But, listen to me, IT MUST STOP NOW.   We have had Go for Coe, Zed Instead, and, my personal favourite, Vote Vogt (which they didn’t).  Enough already.