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Who will be the next Prime Minister of Australia? A woman, and it will be sooner than you think!

In Crikey’s Your Say section today, I read the following from Gary Morgan:

Gary Morgan, executive chairman of Roy Morgan Research, writes: Re. "Turnbull's weasel words to the nation" (yesterday, item 16). Read what we have been saying for months. There is no hindsight in what I said yesterday:

Last week’s massive falls in the Australian share-market have frightened Australians. Now 49% are expecting bad times for the Australian economy over the next year -- the highest number since the recession of 1991-92.

Only 26% of Australians say that now is a "good time to buy" major household items -- the lowest mark since 1991-92. This is especially worrying for Australian retailers given the importance of the Christmas shopping season to their profitability and continued viability.

This week’s Rudd Government stimulus package is a good start, but more is needed now. It is imperative for the Federal and State Governments to stimulate business with tax cuts otherwise both unemployed and "underemployed" will jump from its already high 1.319 million.

In addition the Reserve Bank must cut interest rates another 1% at each of its next two or three monthly meetings. It was a mistake for the Reserve Bank to continue to raise interest rates from last November, as we said in our paper -- Reserve Bank turns up the heat on Australian workers." (Released November 9, 2007) "

These important measures will prevent the "World Financial crisis" sending Australia into a painful recession. Kevin Rudd needs to provide real leadership or risk leading a one-term Government -- the first since "Depression-era" Prime Minister James Scullin.

Malcolm Turnbull did say months ago interest rates should not have been put up -- unfortunately he didn’t say why -- "underemployment" needed to be added to the unemployed! The media at the time showed their bias using "Sins of omission". Turnbull has not however so far acknowledged the Howard Government misled the electorate on unemployment and "underemployment" -- he needs to and "take the flack" -- then the debate on how to fix the economy is "on"!

Our thoughts are well documented in my paper given September 10, 2008 -- which you should have published; unfortunately Crikey joined the other media showing bias using "Sins of omission". You need to look at what Hayden did when Treasurer, too late to save Gough but the saving of Australian business.

I immediately phoned Mr Morgan, and received his permission (for which Webdiary thanks him) to reprint his speech of 10 September 2008. (Note, for reasons of length five graphs, and an addendum containing comments on and links to various Roy Morgan papers has not been included. See here for the full address.)

 

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Australia?
A woman and it will be sooner than you think!
by Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman Roy Morgan Research
Wednesday, September 10, 2008

I appreciate the opportunity of presenting this paper today – it is timely as Australia is heading for a crisis which Australia doesn’t need to have – a lot has happened since the November 24, 2007 fall of the Howard Government!

Firstly, apologies from two guests I invited – Hugh Morgan (ex-RBA Board Member) and John McInnes (Director of Roy Morgan Research) and acknowledgement of the help given by Hugh Morgan, and Roy Morgan CEO, Michele Levine – who doesn’t agree with all my opinions!

In the July 5, 2007 Roy Morgan Unemployment release, 14 months ago, we reported unemployment had fallen sharply, it was down 1.6% to 5.6%. I said:

“With the latest Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate falling sharply from 7.2% to 5.6% it is obvious that the new IR laws, combined with the mining boom, are having a significant effect on bringing many more people into the workforce — the ‘hidden and underemployed’ are getting jobs because of greater flexibility in the work place, good for them and good for Australia! More people entering the work force should keep the dollar high and lessen the need for the RBA to increase interest rates next month.”

A year later on July 5, 2008 I presented my Victoria Day Council 2008 La Trobe Lecture (presented in Queen’s Hall, Parliament of Victoria). I did a lot of research for this lecture and learnt a lot I didn’t know. And YES, a lot has happened since Victoria was founded on July 1, 1851 and Australia over 200 years ago - unfortunately a period full of conflicts.

In this period, four major conflicts resulted in the pointless deaths of millions of people all over the world.

  1. Napoleonic Wars,
  2. The American Civil War - fought over slavery,
  3. The First World War, and
  4. The Second World War.

Reasons for these wars were complicated – economic access, greed, power and the gap between rich and poor. The outcomes were horrific and all involved the underlying themes of oppression, race and religion.

All had a defining impact on Victoria and Australia, either directly or indirectly, via influence from the homeland England.

The issues debated in Australia over 200 years are the same as those debated today – race, religion, education, tariffs and trade protection, immigration, taxation, ‘Labour Market’ reform, ‘booze’, etc!

The consequence of our history is today Australia, after more than 200 years, is governed under a cumbersome democratic process, something we all support although in many ways inefficient in obtaining needed economic changes due to significant changing circumstances – a democratic parliamentary system ‘held to ransom’ by minority interest political parties just as at Federation by Alfred Deakin and his protectionist colleges and racist media friends!

There is little doubt if we ‘started again’ government of Australia and our States would be nothing like it is today SIMPLE!

In the Foreword to my La Trobe Lecture (published August 19, 2008) I outlined the significant contribution NSW Governor Bourke had made in 1827 when he was then Acting Governor of the Cape of Good Hope. At Bourke’s suggestion, the UK Colonial Office in 1829 (Duke of Wellington, UK Prime Minister) introduced a Colonial Law that the press should be controlled not by licences issued or withdrawn at a Governor’s discretion, but by the due processes of the law. This major UK Colonial Legislation had long and far reaching consequences in all British Colonies establishing a free press virtually secured by statute.

Despite freedom of the press and a democratic Australia I would suggest only five significant Federal Government Parliamentary reforms have occurred in Australia since Federation in 1901, namely:

  1. Free university education (Whitlam Government)
  2. Floating of the dollar (Hawke/Keating – supported by the Coalition)
  3. Significantly cutting tariffs (Whitlam in 1974 then the Hawke/Button Plan)
  4. GST (Howard/Costello)
  5. ‘Labour Market’ reform and Work Choices (Howard/Costello)

My business colleague and friend, John McInnes, has suggested I also include ‘Dividend imputation’ and ‘Compulsory superannuation’ (Keating followed by Costello’s removal of the tax on superannuation), and my friend Peter McLennan has suggested I include ‘Medicare’ (Whitlam).

I propose to focus on the Howard/Costello ‘Labour Market’ reform and Work Choices because:

  • The ‘reforms’ are being revoked by the Rudd Government, and
  • Australia’s future viability in the global arena depends on having the kind of flexible workforce that Howard Government real work place reforms were designed to deliver.

Let me make the point: For Australia to remain competitive with the high minimum wages we all highly value, Australia must have a flexible workforce.

The crucial need for Australia to have ‘Labour Market’ reform was the main reason Australia needed the Howard Government for another term and be re-elected at the last Federal election. It is now more obvious with the Global economical downturn. There is no doubt that Australia today would be best served with strong experienced economic management something completely lacking in the Rudd Government.

Why was the Howard Government defeated at the 2008 Federal Election?

Leading up to the 2008 Federal election the Howard Government was consistently behind in the weekly Morgan Poll because they were tired and lacked an understanding of the electorate’s desire for change – in fact they were mostly behind from 1998 – they won the 2001 and 2004 elections due to ‘unpredictable’ circumstances – September 11 and Mark Latham!

The latest Roy Morgan ‘State of the Nation’ Report shows clearly that over the last 10 years the Australian electorate had become more socially progressive, more environmentally engaged, open to new ideas and accepting of differences. There is no doubt that after 11 years of governing the ‘conservative’ Howard Government was gradually becoming more and more out of touch with its increasingly ‘progressive’ electorate.

Toward the end of the Howard Government’s last term they had completely lost credibility with the electorate having:

  1. Lied on ‘children overboard’
  2. Lied on the reason for sending troops to Iraq
  3. Lied about their knowledge regarding the AWB’s Iraq dealings,
  4. Lied on the true unemployment estimate, and
  5. Lied by saying “nobody would be worse off under Work Choices”

The above situation could have been overcome if Howard, Costello and their team had all ‘understood’ and ‘confronted’ each issue “head-on”.

Fortunately for the Howard Government ‘Children overboard’, Iraq and the AWB issues were no longer ‘top of mind’ before the Federal election campaigns started. However as election time neared things became much worse for the Howard Government than a few ‘lies’ as both Howard and Costello ‘blindly’ refused to:

1. Accept the fact that the “true” unemployment number was much higher than stated by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), and

2. Refused to honestly accept and explain the significant advantage to Australia of lower ‘over award’ payments resulting from a less regulated ‘Labour Market’ under Work Choices.

Despite good economic management by the Howard Government for 11 years nobody should ‘underestimate’ the crucial role of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) November interest rate increase and the devastating timing of that increase (slightly more than 2 weeks before the November 24 Federal election) on the final downfall of the Howard Government.

It is important to realise that both sides of politics had agreed in writing with the RBA that the RBA’s prime consideration must be fighting inflation – nothing can be worse for a country than rising unemployment and rising inflation.

On November 9, 2007 with a fragile international economy, particularly in America, I pointed out:

“For the RBA to be raising interest rates despite these pressures, and in the face of rising unemployment, points to an institution that has lost its way due to the Howard Government’s poor direction. Given everyone’s concerns for the 2008 global economy, the RBA risks losing credibility with decisions that are too hasty – there was no reason to raise interest rates this week – irrespective of whether during an election campaign or not!

Before the Federal election the Howard Government did not articulate adequately or accurately the absurdity of using the European 1950s method currently used by the ABS to measure employment and unemployment – a person who works for an hour or more in a month is classified as employed! So there is no recognition of the underemployed – those wanting to do more work nor is there recognition of the large number of unemployed middle managers masquerading as consultants.

What is worse Costello should have demanded the RBA interest rate decision was based on using the ‘true’ unemployment and under-employment estimate so it was made clear to the RBA that putting up interest rates was ‘political’ and definitely not needed.

Yes, the ABS employment measurement was known by all including those at the RBA to be wrong and misleading!

At a ‘first look’ the November, 2007 ABS ‘artificially low’ estimate of unemployment looked good for the Howard Government (ABS November, 2007 unemployment estimate 4.5%, while Roy Morgan real unemployment estimate for July to September 2007 was much higher at 5.8%  - the subsequent October to December, 2007 Roy Morgan real unemployment estimate was even higher 6.1%).

When the RBA believed the ABS November 2007 unemployment number and acted on it by raising interest rates – then the consequences were dire – a Rudd Labor Government GAME SET MATCH!

Immediately on winning the Federal Election an ‘out of touch’ Rudd Government advocated increases in Government spending, a more regulated ‘Labour Market’ coupled with RBA unnecessary interest rate rises. Australia was soon on its way to the recession Australia ‘didn’t need to have’. What is even worse today we are being told by the RBA Australia is heading for much higher unemployment, higher inflation, and not necessarily lower interest rates despite a much lower dollar! DO WE LIVE IN THE REAL WORLD?

Last Friday, September 5, 2008 I made the following point with the latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating release:

“The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating has rebounded strongly off its 17 year low, rising 9.2 points to 99.3. The rebound is a result of Australians anticipating the Reserve Bank would finally end its rigid high interest rates policy and start listening to what the community has been saying. “I have consistently said that the Reserve Bank must cut interest rates – which are at 12-year highs – the Reserve Bank must understand that real unemployment in Australia (as measured by Roy Morgan) is much higher than the official ABS figures suggest. (The “Fantasy of full employment” was explained in Michele Levine’s March 14, 2008 address to the National Press Club “Almost 1.5 million Australians looking for work or looking to do more work”.

“The Reserve Bank must quickly cut interest rates further if they want to avoid putting more Australians out of work and plunging Australia into a recession we don’t need.”

Would the L-NP have been re-elected if they had ‘honestly’ reported unemployment (and underemployment); and had undertaken the detailed micro-economic segmentation analysis required to understand which segments of the community were driving spending and borrowing – and kept the RBA accurately appraised of these economic factors? YES.

Australia is a ‘high basic wage’ country needing to survive in a global economy – Australia can only survive with a ‘both ways’ flexible ‘Labour Market’ including casual workers.

I said earlier the L-NP Government loss was not due to a ‘referendum’ on Work Choices – however a referendum on Work Choices now would be a good thing.

Work Choices - Why not now Liberal Opposition policy?

Roy Morgan surveys before the Federal election clearly showed that workers on AWAs were MORE satisfied with their jobs than others (we published this more than once) – and Roy Morgan surveys showed there were about as many electors who were strongly in favour of Work Choices as there were those strongly against it.

Unfortunately the Howard Government lied re: Work Choices by claiming "nobody would be worse off under Work Choices".

So as not to expose this “lie”, the Howard Government never admitted there were large numbers of people wanting to work or do more work (underemployed) – 1.5 million in FACT!

See Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan Research, address “The Fantasy of Full Employment" National Press Club, March 14, 2008.

For the Howard Government to win the Federal election they had no alternative but to tell the electorate the truth - some people (probably many more than they would have admitted) were always going to be "worse off" under "Work Choices" (as they should have been) –there are far to many obvious employment rorts (still the case with many Federal, State and Local Public Servants) – both sides of politics are well aware except it seems the Liberals who go to Canberra – YES Canberra is Australia’s greatest disaster!

Why should State Government attendants at “public places” get $45+ an hour on Sunday and $18 an hour Monday to Friday – is there a real reason? Why is there a building industry ‘Monday roster day off – is it needed for the building workers to finish their weekend cash jobs?’ and what about the unionised airport valet drivers receiving over award pay rates when people do most of their travelling!

The Liberals needed to debate why "Work Choices” worked – with Howard "leading the charge". And to do this Howard should have had three TV debates – if he had he would be PM today - Howard, like Fraser in 1983, was given poor advice (in Howard’s case from Crosby Textor) SIMPLE!

The only people who still “don’t understand” that the Howard Government didn't lose the election because of Work Choices are the Canberra Liberals - the ALP have research reports conducted before the Federal election which showed what I have stated is a fact!

So what happens now with a Rudd Government increasing Government spending and taxes and no Opposition, again SIMPLE.

Since the Rudd Government was elected on November 24, 2008 there have been no new policy initiatives to stop the ‘Recession we have to have’! Instead, there has been continuous debate in the media over who should be the Leader of the Opposition – A DISTRACTION!

Things have changed and the Rudd Government needs to immediately take pressure off wage demands and allow the deteriorating non-mining private sector to start recovering – all 2008 Budget tax increases need to be cancelled and all further Government spending increases including that on infrastructure must be cut – the alternative is doom!

While the Liberal leadership issue continues to provide a distraction there is little doubt that despite low consumer confidence, rising inflation (caused by overseas factors and higher wages), rising unemployment and a deteriorating economy the Rudd Government will be returned.

Prime Minister Rudd is a ‘good’ person – unfortunately he is not capable of change – if he were he would have acted in December 2007 with a demand for less government and lower taxes!

So if the Rudd Government were returned it would only be a matter of months before Julia Gillard then becomes the first woman Prime Minister of Australia. With her stated ‘economic beliefs’ Australia would soon be heading down the “NZ path” with a highly regulated, more inefficient, work force. It would not be long before Australia started “withdrawing” from the great China and India revolution with spiralling wage inflation and a completely crippled economy!

Can or will Julia Gillard change? She is clever – and she would be under a lot of pressure from Martin Ferguson and Bill Shorten, both with experience and know what is ‘right’!

If the current Liberal leadership issue is resolved then the situation would quickly change. Who should be the Opposition leader – Nelson, Costello, Turnbull, Bishop, Hockey or someone else? With Turnbull, Bishop or Hockey and full support from the others, would they win?

YES – but the new leader must begin now campaigning on a ‘Work Choices’ free ‘Labour Market’ - Work Choices or Work Free with AWAs and ‘unfair dismissals’ maintained - the WA election was a vote against Union Power - something completely ignored by the free press, Governor Burke would be ‘turning in his grave!’ FREELY.

So who will be the Liberal leader? Definitively not Nelson or Costello – unfortunately unlike Howard (who was a poor Treasurer in the Fraser Government) they have shown they are incapable of change.

I would like to think Turnbull or Hockey, both clever and ‘top’ debaters but neither can come to terms with the wrong ABS unemployment estimate – they will both have an opportunity tomorrow with the release of the August ABS unemployment estimate!

So it will be Julie Bishop – she supports Work Choices and like Sarah Palin is “fresh air with no baggage”!

And the best thing for the Liberals is for Barnaby Joyce and his National colleagues is to go it alone – the Liberal vote will go up not down. Thank you.

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the welfare state is at an end

I can only gather, from what you say, Paul Morrella, that   what you think was "so good " about the last 10 or so years, and will now go, is ... welfare?

er-um,um, maybe I don't quite see eye to eye with you there.

On the other hand, you say:A pile of cash will trump a national card for free shit every minute...."

I have no idea what you are talking about in that whole paragraph.  Can you transcribe it into English?  If you can make sense of it yourself, of course.

Changes and getting to them

F Kendall: "Paul Morrella, in that in the last 15 years people evidently became more indebted than they have ever previously been; housing became virtually unaffordable for large swathes of people, particularly the young; household budgets required both parents to be employed; more children were put into longer and longer hours of care by uninterested strangers; infrastructure deteriorated; education became more expensive ....can you explain why you seem to regard all this as "so good"?"

Actually the biggest earner from "debt" is government. That money, believe it or not, is recycled back from something called taxation. If people who couldn't afford a loan are in trouble, it's because the "good times" were indeed the "good times". I mean, how else was a loan possible? Curious, isn't it?

Now, of course, you have the problem of that "revenue" not being there from this day forth (that affects prices and values). What do you do? Tax the "rich"? Doubt it, they've choices, Australia makes up 2% of the world's market - nobody really needs be there. Which means, of course, you'd never get it if you tried. And they're losing like everyone else. A world economy brings all together.

The next step, and of course, the only step is to cut spending, which just happens to affect those more reliant on government (the wealthier you are the more you seem to want to avoid them). This is the problem, and I'd be most grateful for your solution.

No doubt so would be the unfortunate Australian Government.

Hint: The welfare state, as people know it, is at an end.

Best of luck

F Kendall, the only time one should ever truly worry about the offering of a loan is the day it's not offered.

If I were a shareholder in the Australian Government, I'd knock you down getting to the escape hatch. I read numbers, and I'm very rarely wrong - in this case, I'm not wrong.

Not only will Australians not be getting anything "extra', they'll struggle to hold on to what they already have (always look in the second drawer marked secret).

A pile of cash will trump a national card for free shit every minute of every single hour of every single day of the week. It's not nice, it's not democratic, it just is. The net gainers and the net takers outweigh in Australia, the same as most western nations. It can't last, and the fantasy is at an end (you just don't know yet). At least it will be by the end of 09.

If I were a person with limited ability, without respect, and little hope, I'd become a politican. Shit employment, though, at least the pay is stable - if not on the poor side.

The problem has been that these people (politican types) have always been there, in the good times, and now in the bad. With way too much say. And not much else.

What you make of this, is of course, all down to you.

Very curious indeed

Paul Morrella, in that in the last 15 years people evidently became more indebted than they have ever previously been; housing became virtually unaffordable for large swathes of people, particularly the young; household budgets required both parernts to be employed; more children were put into longer and longer hours of care by uninterested strangers; infrastructure deteriorated; education became more expensive ....can you explain why you seem to regard all this as "so good"?

Bad omen

Ernest William: "The American universally flag waving attitude is "Never give a sucker a fair break"."

If you look around the table, and you can't see a "sucker", you know you're it.  I doubt any except those who are there would like to be the government in this present climate.

The lab rat, bunny, crash test dummy etc are the most undervalued amongst us. Without such people (knowingly or otherwise) laying themselves upon the alter of sacrifice, could so much of what we have today ever come into being?

A quick glimpse of Australian political history on wikipedia is very enlightening. Australia basically has been government for large blocks by broadly termed conservative governments. These blocks appear to be broken (short term) by broadly termed socialist governments at the end of a particular cycle. It's really very curious.

Politics is about winning, of that there's no doubt. However if one was to pick a recent time to lose or at least not win, it would have to be 2007-08-09. You get back in life 99% of what you put into it. There's though that 1% undefined, unexplainable thing called luck. Sometimes the very small difference between the hero and the "sucker".

Somebody will take the blame (deserved or not), that's the way life is. I think Australia has found its bunny. Maybe in a small way Australian voters knew it would be this way? Maybe they sensed the cycle? Perhaps that's the reason the political history looks the way it does? Certainly the history does point to a certain harbinger of doom quality to the election of these "center left" governments. Very curious indeed.

Take a photo of today because it'll never be as good

The present Australian Government has made a number of errors, errors that will probably result in it being removed at the next election. This cycle isn't a good one to be the "government" in any country in the world.

The first and by far the worst error was during the campaign. They feed into a feeling of "entitlement". Things, unfortunately for most people, around the world will never be as good as they were during the recent fifteen year golden period. Those days for most are well and truly numbered. Irrespective of how you rate the present government, it'll never score with figures anything near equivalent of the previous one. That's just the world environment. One should never raise expectations one can never meet.

The realization of this silly campaign method has directly lead to a number of very poor financial decisions. Rather then attack in the budget the government messed up by falling for its only silly lines. The Australian Government had a once in a lifetime opportunity, and they fluffed the lines. The surplus should've been used for a major tax overhaul. This would now be the perfect stimulus - the one they so desperately need, and now have next to no hope of finding. In their desire to hurt the previous government, they've effectively killed themselves. There isn't any way now of finding a second chance, hence the problem cannot be rectified.

It will be all downhill from here.

Unemployment is a lagging indicator. The majority of people seem blissfully unaware of what next year will bring. It seems highly unlikely any such (blissfully unaware person) will escape without taking on major damage. Of course, people being people will blame all bar themselves. In our present democracy, government fills this role nicely (this will reflect in poll figures). Unfortunately for Mr Rudd, he's now the government.

There's a magic unemployment figure that destroys all governments (hard to say what it is). I wouldn't mind betting that Australia reaches this figure by the end of next year. One thing certain is that the official economic projections are anything but based in reality. It would seem "hope" has taken root. The next stage of course is "despair'.

The role of a good opposition is to remove a poor government. The present Australian Government has supplied the rope, and placed their own neck in the noose. The present Australian opposition need do no more than kick away the chair.

Labor liars good, Liberal liars bad

The Greens are thwarting an inquiry into who leaked 'details' of Kevin Rudd's account of his 'phone conversation' with Geroge Dubya about G20:

BOB BROWN: No, those inquiries into issues like children overboard have had national importance - whether or not an electorate was deceived on the way to an election by the Prime Minister of the day. This isn't in that category. This is whether or not President Bush had the intelligence or knew about what G20 was for goodness sake. Well, President Bush can answer that if he wishes to.

There obviously does need to be some tightening up in the Prime Minister's office but for an overloaded Senate inquiry system which is looking at much more important issues like the state of childcare, car manufacturing and of course, climate change in Australia.

Yeah, sure Bob. Now, if it had been John Howard on the other hand...

Crikey!

This, from Crikey  today, is a real hoot.

Bernard Keane is spot on too:

Yesterday the Opposition asked the Prime Minister four times about who leaked the call. The number doesn’t matter so much as Rudd’s attitude in response. Each time he recited the same non-answer, although once he pretended that the question was actually about the approach he would be adopting toward the summit this weekend and gave a lecture on the importance of the G20.

Rudd didn’t even care when the Opposition moved a censure motion. He had Stephen Smith respond. He sat there silent. What sort of leader hides behind his Foreign Minister? What sort of leader hides behind Stephen Smith?

Andrew Robb called it a disgrace and was chucked out of the chamber for it. But he was dead right.

This mini-saga is all about the Prime Minister’s ego. It was about his ego when his office leaked the story, designed to puff him into an international leader. And it’s about his ego now, in his unwillingness to acknowledge the role his office played in the story despite the fact that every refusal to answer the question gives it away. All Rudd need do is declare that yes, his office provided background for the story and, on reflection, that was not perhaps the smartest thing to do. But that would involve admitting a mistake -- something Rudd seems to be incapable of doing.

Messes with that careful image of control, see.

There is no reasoning there

It seems to be that, as is usually the case, people accept what the media tells them as fact.

Sad - because only bad news sells newspapers.

Among our contributors I believe we have a decent spread of the extreme capitalists and the extreme opposite - and the in between.

We may criticise the PM or any of our politicians for their actions and behaviour because they are public figures and have to handle that, whether it is constructive of not.

My take on Kevin Rudd is that he handles it pretty well and the general public seem to agree, even when his actions on the world financial crisis is almost copied by the largest economy in the world.

The latest accusation is simply over-the-fence conversation that begs for traction, and it is sad for the democratic principle of the "free" press.

In our small community, as in all such places, goss is the daily bread of the bored and battling majority.

As I understand it, the facts are that Kevin Rudd, while meeting with people he obviously trusted or wished to converse with, received a phone call from George W. Bush.

Whether that happened is not in contest but, surely the ultra-conservative Malcolm Turnbull would see that as a plus for the PM.

So, the media tells us: only three people knew what was said during that phone call: Kevin Rudd and his note-taker, and George W. Bush.

So, what was actually said is only factually known to those people, all of whom, including the US. Ambassador, have denied the alledged offensive section of The Australian's accusations.

Kevin Rudd has only vigoursly denied the offensive material without going into the details of that conversation. Why be selective?

Hiding behind Stephen Smith?  Fair dinkum.

With two censure motions passed against him in the Senate, Howard never defended himself - he had Costello, Downer, Abbott and others to do that for him - and so it should be.

Does any thinking and reasoning Australian believe that the accusation against Kevin Rudd endangers our country, our economy, our dignity or our standing in the world of politics?  Factual reports dispute this.

Any legal eagles in this forum may agree with the old saying that he lawyer who represents himself has a fool for a client.

This type of orchestrated drama was known in the RAN as the gen, in the US Navy as scuttlebut, and to our citizens it is known simply as gossip.

Be careful of the wounded tiger - the media is feeling the effect of the Wall Street meltdown and is still democratically free to print whatever they like under the guise of an opinion.

We are a part of this global financial distress, which originated with the US capitalist system and, while any political ideology may vary between country to country, I hope that we never become part of that military/corporate that has controlled  America since WW 2.

Kevin Rudd needs a suit of armour against the "New Order".

Why divide our nation in this time of crisis? Do the ultra-conservatives really want to change our federal government now?

Why?

Let us remember the behaviour of the inherited Howard "New Order" and hope that they realise their responsibility  if only to their constituents.

Digressing momentarily, I have noticed the habit of the Federal government of replying to the "Dorithy Dix" questions by giving accolades to the person who asked the question.

What I want to know is, as Tanya said, she had visited the electorates who had "asked her to do so". 

Forgetting the behaviour of the Howard era, does Tanya or any of her fellow government ministers require a request to investigate the problems in that electorate or not before taking action?

Howard made an art of looking after electorates who would appreciate his assistance. Is the new federal government guilty of the same?

We keep hearing about the Turnbull "New Order" demanding that we do whatever is opposite to whatever  the government is doing. All is fair in love and war - how about a nation crippled by forces beyond it control?

The American universally flag waving attitude is "Never give a sucker a fair breaK" .

NE OUBLIE

Reasoning

Ernest William, how can you possibly think that America is listening to Rudd on economic matters? He has no idea what is happening here in Australia and is coming up with kneejerk reactions like the ABC bailout.

Bailouts

It must be terribly frustrating for the toilers in the engine room of the Australian Broadcasting Corporation not only continually to hear they are being bailed out but to have to report it knowing it doesn't apply to them. Then again, I suppose most of them don't need childcare.

America did not copy Australia

 Ernest William Graham: "My take on Kevin Rudd is that he handles it pretty well and the general public seem to agree, even when his actions on the world financial crisis is almost copied by the largest economy in the world."

 Er, no Ern. The USA did not copy Australia:

In September, Mr. Paulson went to Congress and urgently pressed for authority to spend as much as $700 billion to unclog the nation’s financial pipelines by buying up unsellable securities from banks and other financial institutions.

But by the time Congress approved the bailout law in early October, Mr. Paulson and the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben S. Bernanke, were already shifting to a strategy he had actually opposed: buying equity stakes directly in American banks, a move that was reminiscent of European -style nationalization.

As recently as a few days ago, Treasury officials insisted that they still intended to buy up the troubled assets. But by late October, it had become clear that Plan A had become little more than a sideshow.

“Illiquid assets looked like the way to go,” Mr. Paulson told reporters at a news conference on Wednesday. But as economic and financial conditions declined so rapidly, he said, that he had to change gears. “I will never apologize for changing the approach and the strategy when the facts change,” he said.

The change in strategy has had only limited impact on the frozen credit markets. The biggest improvement has been in the willingness of banks to lend to each other, a change that largely caused by the willingness of both the United States and European governments to guarantee bank deposits and interbank loans.

Really, I don't think that Mr Paulson takes advice from the government of Australia.

Form over Substance

 Is it a sign of our times that the debate isn’t about whether the “leak” is factually correct or not, but who sanctioned the leak?  If the conversation is not true, then Kevin Rudd is behaving incompetently in not denying it. In that Kevin Rudd quickly denied a part of the conversation suggests that the rest is true. The conversation therefore shows that Australia has elected a competent leader, and the US an incompetent one.   It is in Kevin Rudd’s, the Labour Party’s and Australia’s interest for the information to be known (e.g. Australia will be treated with more respect by the G20).  The information is embarrassing to the US (and its lame duck president). So what? They shouldn’t have elected and re-elected him. Also, the US is quite clear that it puts its own interest above that of other countries. Do we need to kow-tow to them?  Should Kevin Rudd have been more subtle in letting the information out? It seems to me that it is the opposition who are blowing it up more and more. I presume that they (and the media) have checked whether Kevin Rudd broke any security legislation, so as far as I can see, all they are doing is showing that they aren’t ready to play with the big boys. No wonder Kevin's toying with them. 

Thinking and reasoning

G'day Jay,

Sound reasoning and a pleasure to read.

They're going to get tired of that before long

"What sort of leader hides behind Stephen Smith?"

A cowardly poseur?

Who has the biggest ego?

Bernard Keane: "Turnbull’s problem is that his own ego, which is every bit as colossal as the Prime Minister’s, might be getting in the way of sound political strategy."

Ah, but the question is, Eliot, "Who has the biggest ego?"

Lately, I am finding it hard to separate the two.

Grammar

No, Kathy Farrelly, your question should be, of the two, "who has the bigger ego?"

To answer the question you originally posed: I do.

I may be a blonde, but...

Point taken, Malcolm B Duncan.

But I still don't understand what this has to do with my grammar (the dear old soul passed away a couple of years ago).

You may be blonde, but...

Kathy, it would appear Malcom B Duncan has yet to come to terms with your superlativeness.

BTW

What the fuck is the G20?

G20

I'm not certain, Justin Obodie, but I think that the abbreviation has something to do with G-strings (about which you will have to do your own research). Anyway, unlike the numeration system for the thickness of stockings – the denier, where the smaller the number the finer the fabric – it seems that the larger the G number the more attenuated the, ummm, substance.

I hope this helps. More to the point, perhaps, go figure.

A 'G' for Everyone

There's a G3, a G4, a G7, a G8, a G8+5, a G11, a G14, a G15, a G20 (which superseded a G22), another G20, a G24, a G33, another G33 and a G77.

Gee willakers...

Geeeeeeee

Not quite, Dylan Kissane - there is at least one cuckoo in that nest. Nevertheless, you illustrate my original point rather well.

Planned obsolescence in the auto industry

Now, here's a politically expedient, but otherwise pointless, waste of money:

Australia's car industry has welcomed the Federal Government's $6.2 billion investment plan to take the sector to 2020.

In a package announced this morning, the industry will get $3.4 billion under an Automotive Transformation Scheme between 2011 and 2020.

The $6.2 billion package will include a boost of $1.3 billion to the Green Car Innovation Fund, to encourage companies to manufacture low-emissions vehicles and move to consolidate component manufacturing.

And then, in 2020 if not before, one or other of the major local manufacturers will fold up shop anyway.

Might not have the $6.2 billion been better spent retraining and redeploying the labour, which is only going to end up on the junk pile anyway in a few years time?

Motor industry jobs bailout costs $100,000 per worker

Annabel Crabb on the car 'plan':

This is a key skirmish in the war on unemployment, in which the Government's strategy is to buy motor industry jobs at the rate of nearly $100,000 a pop, at which prices you'd be better off getting nationalistic pensioners to knit 'em instead.

Fund raising ideas

KEVIN RUDD will cash in on his first anniversary as Prime Minister by hosting a Labor fund-raiser likely to be one of the largest and most lucrative in Australian political history....

Meanwhile, in Canberra...

Kevin Rudd (on intercom - bzzzzzzz): "John, could you pop in here for a moment."

John Faulkner: "Sure. What's up?"

Kevin Rudd: "This fucking memo about a fund-raiser at Kirribilli House. Are you serious?"

(pause)

John Faulkner: "Well, we've got to raise funds, Kevin. I think it's a great idea."

Kevin Rudd: " Ten-seat tables, each with a federal minister in attendance, for $15,000 a pop! Are you out of your tiny mind!?"

(pause)

John Faulkner: "Um, well...You know, it's the big end of town we're looking at...."

Kevin Rudd: "At Kirribilli House, John? After everything that's happened! After everything that's been said about that sort of thing??"

John Faulkner: "Um. But, if we're having the event in Sydney, I thought..."

Kevin Rudd: "You thought, did you? You thought?...."

John Faulkner: "Sorry, Kevin."

Kevin Rudd: "Sorry, indeed. We cannot do that sort of thing. Do you understand?

John Faulkner: "Well, sure. Sorry, Kevin....."

Kevin Rudd: "Move it to the Sydney Convention Centre immediately."

John Faulkner: "Immediately,"

Kevin Rudd: "Thank - you."

(bzzzzt)

The Government is to blame

Governments make decisions, nobody else. If those decisions go badly they've nobody to blame except themselves. That's the price of leadership.

The bank guarantee is a mess - it'll get worse still - hopeless and stupid policy. There wasn't ever any justification for making such a guarantee. All those involved should be dismissed. It's caused a terrible situation that should never have been allowed to happen. Take note the Aussie was battered over the weekend.

The best thing an opposition can do is act like a government in waiting. Sure, pass government programs, if your competitor wishes to hang himself, sell him the rope.

They also should outline their alternative policy and leave it at that.  Allow people to get comfortable with the fact you may well be the next government. Most importantly start providing reasons why you are up for the job. Things are going to get a lot worse before they get better, that's for sure.

Australian banking system was on the brink of collapse - Rudd

Paul Morrella: "Governments make decisions, nobody else. If those decisions go badly they've nobody to blame except themselves."

Not if they can help it:

"PRIME Minister Kevin Rudd, vowing to "level with the Australian people", last night indicated the Australian banking system was on the brink of collapse two weeks ago.

Mr Rudd said confidence in local banks was fading as institutions in other countries were given government guarantees."

Conflict of interest

ABC news revealed today:

Federal Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull says he acted on advice when he moved money out of a property fund days before redemptions for the fund were frozen.

This is the person, some two days after Kevin Rudd announced the "bipartisan" - without quibbling - financial assistance, screamed foul! Was it because he did not know, as Kevin did not know, the unintended effect on privately managed funds?

The fund that is referred to is actually not a fund of the kind that has been in controversy, it's not a mortgage fund or a cash management trust," he said.

If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck and looks like a duck - its a duck!

"You take advice from your financial planners, you invest in things, you dispose in things.

But - you do NOT take advice from the Treasury, the RBA, the Finance Minister, or the APRA! Turnbull/Bishop say you can't trust them. Struth.

"That fund ... had declined significantly in value and we were advised to dispose of it. I still have investments in a fund that is frozen.

I can understand that - isn't that what the investors in those managed funds are complaining about? They didn't get that opportunity, Mr. Turnbull - your friends in that area of investment froze the funds of the small investors "for their own good".

Did any more millionaires "dispose before the froze"?

NE OUBLIE.

Saying the wrong thing

Wow ! I agree with Paul Morrella now. First Eliot and then Paul!

But to qualify that, Malcolm Turnbull and his Opposition spokesmen are doing a lot of huffing and puffing at the moment about Rudd and Swan and none has proposed an alternative to what is the probably the worst financial calamity to be visited upon us in our lifetimes.

Let's face it - neither Kevin Rudd or Turnbull had a clue six months ago that this was about to descend upon us ( although if they listened to me they would have). However, despite my foresight, and their lack of it, I or indeed they, really don't know if whatever we do to get out of this is going to work.

One thing is for sure, there will be mistakes made and many will suffer. Nor is the UK a place to look to for helpful advice having been as guilty as the USA in perpetuating the housing bubble and is about to suffer far worse than we will from plunging property values.

And it's all about to get worse, much worse if you believe Ed Harrison (for the faint of heart - that is a link to the "naked capitalism" blog).

Frozen funds leave retirees in cold

In The Australian (editorial) today:

THE new business week has begun with billion of dollars of savings frozen in some of the nation's largest financial institutions. As pressure mounts to extend the guarantee of bank deposits to managed funds, the Rudd Government finds itself on the horns of a dilemma, largely of its own making.

On the one hand, it could extend the guarantee to appease the mortgage and cash fund managers and their clients. However, doing so might precipitate unforeseen effects that would impact adversely on other parts of the sector and the wider economy.

On the other hand, it could rebalance the sector by paring back the bank guarantee and/or impose a charge for all deposits guaranteed, not just those of more than $1 million. In Britain, the guarantee level is £35,000 ($89,310) and in Italy €103,000 ($210,000). Such amounts are more in keeping with the $100,000 limit initially proposed by Malcolm Turnbull. While protecting the savings of many householders, the individual amounts involved would be less likely to skew the markets by drawing the funds of major institutional investors away from other investments.

Economic consultant Nicholas Gruen summed up the Government's dilemma on the ABC's Inside Business yesterday: "It's got a large core banking system and it's got a largish shadow banking system, and basically what's happening is that we've learned the lessons of the Great Depression with the core banking system and we've really not done anything much with the shadow banking system." While designed - in Kevin Rudd's words - "to help unclog the arteries of the global financial system", the bank guarantee has had unintended consequences, as many Australians, especially superannuants and people on fixed incomes, have found to their cost.

In advising people facing hardship after having their funds frozen to contact Centrelink, Wayne Swan sent out an unfortunate message last week. For decades, Australians have been told to take responsibility for their own retirement, and not to rely on the taxpayers. Those caught in the freeze have invested responsibly in good faith, and the vast majority are not wealthy. The Treasurer said his comments reflected six years' experience as the Opposition services spokesman. But retirees who pride themselves on their independence would have found the suggestion they seek welfare help insensitive to say the least.

The chief executive of Perpetual, David Deverall, is right when he says it is in everyone's interest that the funds sector reopen as soon as possible. The head of fixed income and multi-asset portfolios at Schroder Investment Management Australia, Simon Doyle, says the problem warrants more thought. Mr Doyle believes an extension of the guarantee to mortgage trusts and other funds is probably not appropriate, as such investors accepted higher risks than those who kept their money in banks. However, he says a solution has to be found that limits the damage to the savings pool outside the banking system. Lowering the banking guarantee threshold is one possibility.

Should the Government amend its legislation, consideration of the most expert advice available, with thorough attention to all possible consequences, is crucial. It may opt to brave out the issue, at least for now. But small investors, predominantly retirees with modest resources who are victims of the actions of larger investors, could prove an unforgiving constituency come the next election if the freeze and uncertainty continue for an extended period.

Frozen funds

Kathy, never at any stage could any significant proportion of depositors withdraw their money from these funds any more than could bank customers. That's the way it works and in the meantime they are still being paid from the earnings and repayments of the the bundled mortgages they hold. What are you asking for; that all mortgagors sell their houses?

I'm sure Paul Morrella will agree.

Higher return = higher risk

On the other hand, Kathy Farrelly, think about this from Bernard Keane in today's Crikey:

The demand by cash management funds and mortgage trusts that they also get a government guarantee is one of the more shameless try-ons in an era of particularly refined rent-seeking. Why don’t we guarantee all listed companies while we're at it? It would be heartlessness of titanic proportions to dismiss the concerns of shareholders about their investments.

At least finance industry peak body IFSA could have tried to construct a case that the bank guarantee was a significant problem for its members. But beyond the politically-motivated claims emanating from News Ltd, no one has produced any evidence of how much the flight to quality by investors is motivated by the guarantee and how much by the fact that exposure to equity and property markets is a seriously bad idea at the moment. Plenty of money has been flowing out of the sector for months.

Which also begs the question of why we should feel any sympathy for investors with their funds frozen. News Ltd has continued its now well-established practice of citing examples of wealthy individuals who have failed to get something others have got and demanding our sympathy for them. On Saturday The Australian tried to drum up sympathy for "self-funded retiree" Don Reid, who had had his AXA funds frozen and was blaming the government. Yesterday Glenn Milne introduced us to Greg Russell who invested "a large portion" of the sale of his business on mortgage funds, which were now frozen.

When so many other people in the last twelve months have bailed out of investment vehicles with exposure to the stock market and property markets, you wonder why these people had failed to do the same. Hadn’t they noticed the brewing financial crisis and stockmarket collapse?

Or did they just not like the idea of taking a lower return on a safer investment? One imagines that if these people received supernormal returns on their investments, they wouldn’t be offering the excess to the taxpayer. But they expect the taxpayer to come to their aid when they have to deal with consequences of their own financial decision-making.

Emphasis added.

A bad policy

Bernard Keane also had this to say on Friday:

The egos of Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull – the two supermassive black holes at the centre of the Australian political galaxy – are tearing apart the political unity needed for Australia’s governing class to effectively address the financial crisis.

Two weeks ago, when he announced the unconditional banking guarantee – a bad policy made necessary by growing pressure on banks and the government – Rudd should have been more honest in describing what he was doing. It was a rushed decision, made in the midst of a global financial meltdown, and the chances that it was perfect were zero.

That’s the point of taking time to develop policy – to work out all the consequences that can’t be understood at first blush. Oh the irony of Kevin Rudd now being criticised for failing to do the thing that he’s been getting bagged for all year – taking his time to work out what to do.

Ain't it the truth!

Richard: Kathy, for copyright purposes I've cut short the paste and inserted a link.

Out of the frying pan and into the fire.

 Whether one feels sympathy for people with their funds frozen is really not the point here.Though, I have to say, that I  do feel sympathetic. Not all these people are greedy and rich, as many will have you believe. Some may have been foolish or ill advised, but they do not deserve to have their funds frozen.

The fact is, the government acted irresponsibly, by announcing an unlimited guarantee on all bank deposits.

It was simply bad policy.

 Why have other countries been more conservative in their guarantees?

"In Britain, the guarantee level is £35,000 ($89,310) and in Italy €103,000 ($210,000). Such amounts are more in keeping with the $100,000 limit initially proposed by Malcolm Turnbull. While protecting the savings of many householders, the individual amounts involved would be less likely to skew the markets by drawing the funds of major institutional investors away from other investments" (The Australian)

I hold no brief for Turnbull, (another megalomaniac) however,  in my opinion he was right in this instance.

Kathy don't be a dill

These sorts of funds have been freezing their withdrawals off and on for months, it had nothing to do with the government.

And the government are holding firm in the face of the lunatics demanding government guarantees for what amount to gaming casinos dressed up as "mortgage funds".

Many have gone broke over the past few years so why would anyone bother to put their money in them still.

Marilyn don't be a dill

The policy was a bad one, as many, including Bernard Keane, have said. The government should not have said that they would guarantee unlimited deposits for banks in the first place.It was a knee-jerk reaction!

Colonial First State, the wealth management arm of Commonwealth Bank, has become the latest and biggest fund manager to block investors withdrawing money following the government's guarantee of bank deposits.

Colonial has frozen daily withdrawals from $3.3 billion worth of funds that have significant investments in mortgages.

It brings the total amount of money locked up within investment funds to more than $24 billion.

Marilyn: "These sorts of funds have been freezing their withdrawals off and on for months, it had nothing to do with the government."

Not on the scale as is happening now, Marilyn. The government has exacerbated the problem.

But so what, Kathy?

It may have been a bumbled announcement but in the end, the way it was done doesn't make a difference.

These are trying times. No-one really knows if what is being proposed world-wide will actually work or how deep a depression it is going to be (and it is coming). Except, of course, Malcolm Turnbull, who speaks as though he has the solution but isn't ready to let anyone else in on the secret.

Bernard Keane's assessment of Rudd and Turnbull is rather silly. Rudd is certainly a control freak, but that's also why he is PM today and was able to beat the biggest control freak of them all, John Howard, but at least he's a Howard with an intellect and some sympathy for people.

Turnbull is acting like he's all ego and little else, nor does his status as having made a lot of money - most which came by selling out in the infamous dot.com boom at just the right time is an indication of great brilliance.

Malcolm is acting like a petulant child who is angry Rudd won't let him play in his gang, or even be the leader of that gang. His front bench are still in shock at losing. They'll need two terms in Opposition just to be fit to govern again.

The dancing bears at News Ltd are fixated upon Turnbull no matter what the polls say, including their own Newspoll tomorrow that will say that Rudd is still miles ahead of Turnbull as preferred PM.

As usual my prediction has come true - the Liberals allowed a dill like Howard to lead them over the precipice just because he wanted to beat some sort of record which no-one else gave a stuff about. Anyone who thinks the rabble that comprises the Opposition will soon be clambering up out the valley of doom they are currently in, is dreaming.

A bumbled announcement?

Michael: "It may have been a bumbled announcement but in the end, the way it was done doesn't make a difference."

Some other opinions from The Australian in cut and paste today.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24567772-20261,00.html

The Wall Street Journal Asia editorialises on the PM's error that created, rather than prevented, capital flight

WORLD leaders scrambling to rethink financial regulation may pause to consider Australia, where a poorly conceived policy has gone from beggar-thy-neighbour to beggar-thyself in two weeks flat. On October 12, Prime Minister Kevin Rudd announced that the Government - read: taxpayers - would fully insure $1.2trillion in deposits held at eligible financial institutions such as local banks. The move was meant to cut the risk of capital flight to other countries that had adopted or expanded such guarantees in preceding days. Rudd's move had an effect, but not the one he intended. Depositors big and small immediately moved funds from uninsured to insured savings vehicles. The Rudd Government backtracked on Friday, capping the deposit guarantee at $1million and including foreign banks with branches in Australia in the program. It's an embarrassing reversal for Rudd and may have been prevented with a little forethought. While the Opposition Liberals had proposed a $100,000 cap when the idea for deposit insurance first surfaced this month, Rudd unveiled his proposal with no advance warning and no formal debate. Perhaps Rudd felt global events warranted swift action. But now, having insured in haste, Canberra is forced to repent at leisure. At least Rudd is providing his peers across the world a valuable lesson: A financial panic doesn't suspend the law of unintended consequences.

But as Tim Colebatch points out in The Age, the PM still hasn't fixed the problem:

AUSTRALIA cannot afford mistakes in economic policy. Kevin Rudd made one with his hasty, sweeping pledge to guarantee all bank deposits for three years. That mistake was understandable in the circumstances, but the Government's failure since to admit it and fix it is inexcusable. Rudd's aim was to avert a potential threat to the banks; instead, he overdid it and created a real crisis for the non-banks. The reason 14 of the 20 biggest mortgage funds have frozen their deposits is because the Prime Minister - with the Treasurer away in Washington, and without even talking to the heads of the Reserve Bank and the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority - dramatically tilted the playing field against them. The Government had to concede its mistake and back down. Instead, on Friday it dug itself deeper into trouble by reaffirming that any bank account holding up to $1 million would be guaranteed free of charge. The threshold is so high as to be meaningless. Rudd is either getting bad advice or not listening. There is only one way out, which Rudd in Opposition did very well: eat humble pie, admit error, fix it and move on.

John Stanford at ABC.net.au Unleashed on the guarantee:

THE Government has committed the same mistakes that caused the global financial crisis in the first place. It failed to identify the risks of its course of action. It failed to price the risks anywhere near correctly. It relies uncritically on credit ratings. On top of all this, it has given a tremendous advantage to the Big Four banks. These banks have fully guaranteed debt of all types with only a low fee to apply in one month's time. They have been granted open slather by the Government not to pass on in full cuts in official interest rates. They are allowed to swallow up smaller banks, thus reducing competition.

Richard:  Hi Kathy.   I don't want to sound like a nag, but could you do us a favour and keep your extracts a bit briefer. And indenting quotes (that box that resembles my brainwaves with a hangover) would help me (and readers) see who said what.

The spider and the fly

It is generally understood that the Liberals have a standard policy of destabilising, whether it be the incumbent government, the Australian people, or any legislation which may intend to spread the wealth of the nation equitably.

They have simple methods including interrupting a speaker unnecessarily, overbearing and trying to silence a person with an opposing view, like in TV debates, or, when in government, installing a Speaker who will only follow the conservative ideology, or, when in opposition, continually screaming out above the government speaker, and even the Speaker of the House.

However effective those tactics may be they shame the citizens who voted for them, even as they demean our parliament. In the Howard fashion, they will do these things and then claim the others did it.

Today I watched a tape of Lateline from last night and my perception was that one of the most repulsive exponents of the ",New Order's", tactics, namely George Brandis, was really the "moderator", and the others present like Leigh Sales (a wonderful journalist but hardly a referee) and Labor's Senator Stephen Conroy. With all of the Brandis bluster, taking control of the interview and not allowing his opponent to put his point of view, one thing kept popping up in my mind with respect to the Turnbull back flip on his promise to support the Bill, as it was introduced and without quibbling at all.

Now - is this a case of The spider and the fly?

According to Brandis, only two (2) days after the Bill passed Parliament, Turnbull and his mob suddenly discovered a flaw and has since made a symphony of "they should have known". Fair Dinkum.

At its best consideration that had to mean that Turnbull and his robots actually knew of these faults when their Senate passed the Bill, or does that criticism only apply to the government, the RBA, the Treasury, and all the rest of the organisations involved by the government?

IMHO the only other explanation, which is even a worse nation destabilising political bastardry, is that they did know before the Senate vote - but did not inform the people of Australia, the media, the regulators, business interests, the Treasury, the RBA and certainly not the elected government!

Is that what some people consider appropriate for an alternative government?

This spider and the fly tactic would have been orchestrated by their known barristers, lawyers and political opportunists.

So here we are, during the worst financial crisis the world has faced since the Great Depression, which was caused by the very people the Coalition represent - the extreme capitalists - doing their worst to unsettle the government, and to divide Australia in a time of a world wide war on financial disaster and despite their promises not to do so.

So much for the Turnbull attitude to bipartisanship, honesty, promises, quibbling and putting their own selfish interests above the welfare of our nation and our people.

There is just no leadership there, just courtroom posing for headlines - and at what cost to Australia?

NE OUBLIE!

The Opposition's job

Ernest William, surely it is the job of the opposition to destabilise the government and show up their flaws, and Rudd & Co have plenty of those.

Rudd and Swan's handling of the worst financial crisis the world has faced since the Great Depression is pathetic, they have no idea which way to turn.

As for Senator Stephen Conroy, he is a non-entity and could not debate his way out of a wet paper bag. For goodness sake Ern, stop defending the worst incompetants we have had on the treasury benches in years.

Due consideration

In your opinion then, Alan Curran, what should the current Federal government have done and more particularly - given the as yet unknown depth of the credit default swaps mire - what should it be doing?

I am sure that it (and we) would appreciate your considered advice.

Big mistake

It was certainly a mistake for the government to give an unlimited guarantee on all bank deposits. (Glen Stevens was not in favour of this, as leaked documents revealed.) Had the government put a ceiling of $100,000 on the bank deposits guarantee, as suggested by Turnbull, we would not have ended up with second tier cash management and mortgage funds freezing their customers' savings.

As a result many people are now left in extremely difficult circumstances. One chap who had sold his business was unable to access his money because it had been frozen. He was left with less than $200 in a bank account. It was necessary for this man to borrow $50,000 to cover BAS comitments, and to maintain his family's standard of living.

Wayne Swan's advice that people like this poor bloke should go to Centrelink and seek income support, is ridiculous and ineffectual.

Hear, hear

This is the first time I have ever heard anyone of the opposition party persuasion , no matter which party, put in writing the claim that it is their party's job to destabilise the Federal elected Government. Unbelievable.

Many politically interested Australians, including myself, have often claimed that we should remember that the government of the day has the power of the people to do something - all of the people.

However, it is pointless to concentrate on the opposition when they do not have that power.

Nevertheless, arguing against the elected Government to "keep the bastards honest" is fair game but not just for the sake of opposition to legislation which is popular with the voters, or in the national interest. That is merely demonstrating that they do not believe in majority government. Like the misused Senate of today.

I see this current world crisis as an issue more worthy of being a world war against universal financial distress,  than the shadow boxing of a war against terror, with terror, and for the sake of terror.

What the Turnbull version of the "New Order" has done is below contempt.

In an uncertain time like this when all governments, not just the Australian government, are taking immediate measures to protect their respective countries - and that is exactly what Rudd/Swan have done - it is necessary, and should be warlike compulsory, for the entire Parliament to be as one.

Like all responsible people, in a situation new to the great majority of our Parliament, Labor warned that there would be some trial and error (my words) and I respect them for that qualification.

After some media drop-kicks at the hard work of our government and our Australian prudential regulators (good news does not sell newspapers), some of the media are now taking a more responsible line and looking at the behaviour of the Labor government and comparing it to the Liberal/Nationals and indeed, the rest of the world.

Again a simple question for those so blinded by their political bias that they cannot see it: Does the Turnbull promise of absolute support for the Rudd/Swan Bill, without quibbling, only exist for the exact moment it is passed?

And a supplementary question: Since the Turnbull opposition, two days after their agreement, have used every low tactic of abuse of the Government, the Secretary of the Treasury, the Governor of the RBA, and APRA, under the mantra of "they should have known" - then why didn't THEY know when they voted?

They have just changed one Howard "New Order" for another - never apologise, never admit you're wrong, it is too honest!

NE OUBLIE.

Mung beans

Anthony Nolan: "Suffice to say that his constant refrain through many texts was that competitive, individualised economic arrangements around the production and distribution of the means of subsistence was contrary to what he called our "species-being". In other words the dominant mode of production is antithetical to what humans are when we are at our best."

Rousseau had an enduring, often unacknowledged influence on 19th Century thinkers, didn't he? Nowhere more obviously so than when marxists and others start talking about our "species-being", our "false consciusness" and our "alienation" and true humanity "at our best."

Ironically, such a standpoint is itself completely ahistorical and value laden in the extreme. It presupposes some Arcadian, pre-Historical, timelessly Ideal Human 'species", which is "unalienated" from "nature" and "therefore good".

A century and a half of ineffectual, sanctimonious moralising by marxisant wankers followed this "insight", their only otherwise historically significant legacy being the likes of Pol Pot, Mao Zedung and Stalin.

Six billion "alienated" souls wallowing in "false consciousness" while the bloke running about out in the Domain in the rain, raving about Engels is "correct".

The rest of it would fit easily into Manning Bar on a quiet night, boring the dickens out of the barmaid with their latest "theoretical perspectives".

Mungo beans more like

From the very little I know of you, Eliot Ramsay, I doubt you remember the Manning Bar of my time at the University. Whole place has been re-modelled but, in my day, as an undergraduate, it had an enormous long mirror behind it with an image of a topless female. She served behind the bar. She became a patient of Dad's and was one of the loveliest women I have ever met - and I've met quite a few lovely women. By all reckoning, going by the picture on the mirror behind the bar, she had magnificent tits. Apart from simple observation, a gentleman never tells.

Of course, those were the days when we had unisex toilets as well.

Marx was right

The fact that Soviet socialism collapsed under the weight of its own contradictions significantly before capitalism takes nothing away from Marx's critique of capitalism.

It remains, over time, the best critique based as it is on an understanding of the complex interactions between economy, politics and human subjectivity. Establishing the latter in Marx would take serious effort and a significant re-reading. Suffice to say that his constant refrain through many texts was that competitive, individualised economic arrangements around the production and distribution of the means of subsistence was contrary to what he called our "species-being". In other words the dominant mode of production is antithetical to what humans are when we are at our best.

Before anyone gets too excited by this renaissance of Marxism let me say that his solutions (revolutionary communism/socialism) were plain wrong. The USSR stands as a testament of that among other horrible, bloody and repressive regimes.

But his critique of capitalism - superb.

For a sophisticated and nuanced understanding of Marx within the context of modernity one cannot go past Marshall Berman's All That Is Solid Melts Into Air.

Dakota

Scott: "Just "Google" that did you Eliot? bit late now. "

Well, to link to a reference, yes. But the fact is, I'd heard it before that the Dakota people don't like being called 'Sioux'. One explained it's a bit like calling Inuit people 'Eskimos'.

What's your view of it?

Short answer

Unfortunately  Eliot I'm not au fait with indigenous North American affairs although I can imagine their indignation. White man's interpretation of course; for the Poms, niggers start at Calais (and the Scots aren't much better.) I do recommend "Bury My Heart At Wounded Knee" if you haven't already read it.

While I'm on this thread, I'd like to say that I have no problem with greed; an instinct necessary for survival. The problem with homo  (not so)  sapiens is that it got too smart for it's own good. (And that of many other species.) 

The shake out is underway

Scott Dunmore: "No Paul, its not a problem. In your own words, it's a correction."

And that's what it is.

It wasn't me complaining about "unlimited growth", and the need for intervention to stop it. It's been put on hold, and not an environment tax in sight. So economics did save your world.

Not even the ultimate one; that has yet to come.

Well, interventions are certainly making the situation much worse. If interventions continue, which I expect they will, the situation will worsen. We're certainly moving close to the "every man for himself" phase.

The situation for me presents a challenge, and one I look forward to. Adverse situations are the situations when we learn most about ourselves, and indeed others. They're also the situations where true opportunities begin their bloom.

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