Webdiary - Founded and Inspired by Margo Kingston

Bill Avent and Michael de Angelos, I am here to tell the pair of you that I have forgotten more than both of you combined can remember.

Think about it...

Yep – Kath and Kim are a sheer delight, one that I came to rather late but I was hooked. Not too sure though what they have to do with Keating or even Howard, but there we go. (I adore Dame Edna as well and never miss a new show.)

I'm sure Keating has got over Howard defeating him. It is ten years after all and he's built himself an impressive business career. I also must admit I'm pretty friendly with the Keating family, so I am prejudiced but still admire the one family member I've had the least to do with – the former PM. (I am actually scared of him!).

They did report that he locked himself away in a dark room for nearly ten days after his defeat in the blackest mood, and yes – it was being defeated by Howard of all people that caused him the most grief. But he got over it quickly and you must be aware that of all previous Prime Ministers, Keating has been the one to make the least public comments.

When he does, he's spot as far as I see – but again, that's my opinion.

We could debate the media's role in Keating's demise forever. As I say, it's in the cuttings file and there on record.

Of course you remember the Howards at Kirribilli House because it was more recent, but it's not the fact that it was mentioned, it's the way something is reported. Howard had, by the time Kirribilli House became a sore point, committed far worse sins – Tampa, the Iraq War etc.

I point out the Zegna suit charade as an example because at the time it was being used by a dozen Canberra media pundits to justify their view that Keating was an elitist of some sort , the Nationals' odious Bill O'Chee was the politician that year handing out the Zegna Woolgrowersi awards. And always at these awards, the Nats are the only political party represented.

O'Chee of course achieved eventual fame with his ignorant call that Aboriginals should have done as his family had – built up wealth over the generations by buying property and creating wealth for themselves. Little Bill apparently had no idea that indigenous people could not own land and were paid sub-standard wages. A perfect example of a Nationals poltician.

The view that Keating is "up himself" is one that I can see others would view. It's just another example of Australia's awful tendency to dismiss anyone with any semblance of class or style, or in Keating's case, intelligence as well.

But these are personal views in the end and I'm an admitted Keating fan. And that was reinforced by his interview on the 7:30 Report last night. Every limited Keating performance is a sheer delight.

What a loss to the theatre of parliament, and the very idea that Costello was some sort of replacement makes me weep.

The final proof will be, as I say, in the publishing bomb of the year, Costello's memoirs.

No, my memory is one of the few parts still functioning. People don't decide en masse a person is "arrogant." They are drip fed it.

So many "scandals" and so little time. The Thai teak table at the Lodge. Remember that one? A scandal of earth-shattering proportions despite it only costing $17000 (in donations and chosen by a panel who always decorated the joint). But Keating copped the flak in an endless media barrage while Howard's ginormous costs in commandeering Kirribilli House, redecorating it (in ghastly fashion) to Janette's taste, the stocking of cellars etc. just got mere mentions and not until the later years.

And clocks – yes, another repeated fact that indicated the Captain Wacky title was deserved. As for the Zegna suits. I well remember that charade and for very very good reason.

Every year I attend the woolgrower's awards where usually Count Zegna flies to Australia in person to present them. They aren't the type of gala events that make the news except for The Land .The Count is the largest purchaser of Australia's fine wool and keeps hundreds of small growers in business. That wool returns to Australia in beautiful suits and really, Keating should have been applauded by the Nationals as a fine example and advertisement for their industry but no, they joined in with the abuse. Never once did we hear about another MP's suit – probably bought off the rack at DJ's or Myers and stitched up in China.

As I said, if one had the time the cuttings library holds the proof of the ferocity.

Keating is not an arrogant man. He could be stubborn and terrifying and certainly abusive to journalists in early morning calls, as many on the receiving end will testify, but as charming and smooth as silk 12 hours later. No, not arrogant but passionate.

And let's not even mention the piggery non-event that the Nine network & the awful Laurie Oakes became fixated upon and made a meal out of . I think there was even a special Opposition Minister for Keating's piggery. It all came to nothing of course but compared with the relatively unscathed manner in which Peter McGauran has not only escaped his devastation of the horse industry but received applause for eventually solving the mess he created – the contrast could not be clearer (nor the dreadful treachery the Nationals deal out to their own constituency and the bizarre manner in which those afflicted keep voting for them!).

But Costello never boring? You are pushing credibility on that one.

I was there – as probably everyone else was at the time. But I think my memory is far better.

Keating was absolutely demolished by the media in one of the greatest undemocratic attacks upon a PM (since the Menzies era) and the most vicious partisan use of the media by its owners for personal gain.

It would be interesting to go through the cuttings files – if one had the time, as the proof is there in print. It's completely apart from whatever one thought about his policies ( which I personally believe were the best and his defeat Australia's greatest set-back for decades)

Packer's Nine network was relentless, as was Murdoch's News Ltd. "Arrogant", " Arrogance", on and on it went until every man & woman and dog including people I know were repeating the word about the man.

"But he's sooo arrogant" was the response I repeatedly heard when talking about Keating. Asked to give examples – they usually couldn't but they knew for sure – he was just "arrogant.' Yet the one man that should really apply to – Peter Costello has escaped the title.

The rest of your assessment of Costello though is pretty spot-on. He isn't leadership material. And Howard – who history will regard as the most useless and possibly the worst PM to date, could take every chance he wanted, every risk as he must have been as surprised as others at his luck. He had nothing to lose.

My prediction : just as I was correct (on here and elsewhere) – that Howard would leave a devastated Liberal Party with no clear leader and Rudd would have a convincing win, as I was right about Latham's bestseller : Costello's book will be the publishing flop of the year.

Ian M (ed): Michael, you use hyphens between words a fair bit. It would help advance publication of your comments if you could develop the habit of putting spaces fore and aft of them when using them as parentheses – as I do here – as distinct from their use in hyphenation as word-joiners.

Eliot Ramsey: "Well, now the recession genie is out of the bottle. So, watch Swann veer panic-striken the other way..."

And what's going to happen when China turns off the printing press?

And what's going to happen when the hedge funds, and private equity, come a smashing and grabbing? Feeling confident?

Paul Morrella: "The Australian Government completely abandoned any pretence of fiscal policy responsibility in the budget."

Well, that was because the "Inflation genie was out of the bottlle" and we needed an independent reserve bank to ram it back in. Remember?

And since Australia was the main beneficiary of the Chinese economic boom, the last thing we needed to worry about was some silly "credit crunch" on Wall Street, which didn't matter anyway because the American economy was "worthless" as you know. And we could say it in Mandarin.

So, on went the brakes, big time.

Well, now the recession genie is out of the bottle. So, watch Swann veer panic-striken the other way...

It will be like one of those Laurel and Hardy flics where the boys struggle frantically over the wheel of a run-way T-Model Ford...

What, I wonder, is this inviscerating in the House people are on about? What does it mean? According to my understanding, the word inviscerate relates to the noun viscera — the body's internal organs — and the verb form means to supply sustenance to those organs. And looking it up, I find it listed also as an adjective, alternative to visceral, meaning internal. That makes sense. But I find myself unable to make sense of the idea that anyone can be described as inviscerating in the parliament. I shall await enlightenment on that.

Unlike some around here, I have no strong feelings about Costello. I would certainly have preferred him as prime minister over Howard. Whatever he is, and whatever drives him, it will be interesting to read his own take on his career in politics. I am sure it will be very different from mine. I see his career as a series of quite cunning calculations, few of which, as fate would have it, quite came off.

As deputy to Downer, whom no one in his right mind could ever have expected to be prime minister (consider Hewson's words: "You're just not leadership material, Alex — never were, and never will be — you know it, and I know it.") Peter thought he was in a prime position to take over leadership of the party when the befuddled, gaffe-prone schoolboy finally fell over. He shouldn't have to wait too long, he thought.

Such was not to be the case, however, because now the noisy Hewson stepped up. But he turned out to be just another false hope. A deluded electorate was prepared to give Keating a chance, now that he was out from under Hawke's thumb, to return his party to the ALP ethos. So when Hewson failed and faded into oblivion, Costello was still in prime position. Except that somehow, mysteriously, Howard rose again, pretty much from nowhere, to lead a desperate Liberal Party. He promised to hand over to Costello before too long but, guess what, surprise surprise, Howard lied.

Some say Costello should have spat the dummy and mounted a challenge from the back benches. They fail to take into account two things. One is that the Liberal party is not the ALP, and doesn't operate like the ALP. The other is that unlike Keating, Costello is totally calculating, no risk-taker, quite lacking in spontaneity. Such a move was not a realistic option for him.

Costello had his good luck, and his bad luck. He was lucky enough to be treasurer through a resources boom, and able to take credit for rising affluence when all he had to do was manage the inevitable. He was smart enough to grow out of his image as a second-rate Keating imitator in parliament to the point where he could be perceived as a credible prime minister, but unfortunately for him his colleagues failed to have the ticker to dump Howard before it was too late.

Now they are floundering about all over the place, looking for a new messiah; and I predict that they will be for many years to come. Nelson has no hope of leading the Liberal Party to the next election. Turnbull, if he leads it, will lose, and unlike Costello, he is too full of himself to realise that Labor is in for a few terms yet. Whoever loses the next election will lose the leadership forever. Who else have they got? Tony Abbot? Well, it would be interesting…

Who will be the next Liberal prime minister? My guess is Chis Pyne. But not for a good many years yet.

The Australian Government completely abandoned any pretence of fiscal policy responsibility in the budget. We reap that which we sow. If commodities soften (money is moving out of emerging markets), and indeed banks do not pass on rate cuts, Australia has deep problems. It means a deflation spiral could well be under way.

You cannot talk an economy down, and give market signals as such, and then turn around signing a completely different tune (mixed signals is an understatement). The probable recession was avoidable. The probable recession should have been avoided. The Australian Government has nobody to blame but themselves for the situation.

The government actions to date have been completely irresponsible. Australia should indeed be concerned about their policy makers, both monetary and fiscal. I've personally got grave doubts they have the foggiest idea of what they're doing.

This is the thing from a couple of nights ago where Abbott was fawning all over Costello, to the very rafters ? How is it the only form of humanity that has no pride in itself is a politician. So treacly. Garrett tonight (Chinese pollution?) was hardly better.

Yecchh!

Eliot Ramsey: "I agree. I cannot stand Costello, personally. But he's absolutely inviscerating in the House. "

The only thing you got right was stating what the majority of Aussies think about yesterday's man: " I cannot stand Costello".

Inviscerating? Give me a break - the man is nauseating and full of dreadful puns. When one is attempting to bedazzle an audience with humour they really shouldn't chortle at their own bad jokes. And his audience numbers in the House? - more watched Humphrey the Bear.

Everyone should give this bozo a rest - it's a pure publicity stunt for a book that's going to bomb. And it's a bad publicity stunt. Latham did it much better and got a best seller on his hands.

And that was a book that many on here, and predictably the pathetic Canberra press gallery ( but not me!) said was going to devastate the Labor Party. The hullaballoo then - as I correctly predicted ( but happened sooner) was over in 3 months. I give Costello a month at the best.

Bye bye Peter.

Richard Tonkin: "Even if he could, would he have the "ticker' to fight the battle the whole way through?"

Perhaps not. But the fact is he's got the smarts, something really obviously lacking in Ruddland.

In fact, you might not need too much ticker to take them on. It's not like he'd be going one on one with John Maynard Keynes or Milton Friedman, is it?

I mean, I wouldn't take on Sonny Liston in a pub brawl, but I'd be fairly handy compared with Pee Wee Herman. You know what I mean?

Richard Tonkin: "Playing the Prime Ministership for personal gain is not  a good look."

I agree. I cannot stand Costello, personally. But he's absolutely inviscerating in the House. Actually, I'd be surprised if he'd want to be part of another Government when there's so much on offer in the private sector for him,.

End up running a bank or something, is my bet.

Still, Swan's probably not getting much sleep these days...

Richard Tonkin: " And once we've bought the paperback explanation, we'll be expected to "buy" Costello as Liberal leader."

Wayne Swan is near paralysed with fear I'd say that Costello could end up on the Opposition front bench.

Given that Australia is now plummeting into a severe, and probably long term, recession driven largely by Rudd-Gillard-Swan's hands-off, monetarist approach to economic management, the idea of Costello standing across from the Despatch Box day after day after day must be truly a disturbing thought.

Can't resist some parallels with this:

http://drhorrible.com/

Electing Costello as leader would be a disaster for the Liberals – although probably give the poor souls at least someone to rally around.

That was clearly demonstrated by Tony Abbott's declared love for the man and I'm sure his eyes almost became moist at the same time. (Was it true love for his fellow man in the Catholic sense or a tear of sheer desperation ?).

Those who delude themselves that they could have ever won with Costello as leader should think carefully – they never would have and never will. Again we see the sheer foolhardiness of the Liberals in investing their futures in the ambitions of one man – Howard, and allowing that to overcome all their reasoning. Sometimes winning isn't everything.

The Liberals need to face reality and abandon this idea that some magic formula or power will put them back in government at the next election.

Malcolm Turnbull is the obvious ,most intelligent and best choice. For some reason he isn't very likeable to the general public – but Howard proved that was not an obstacle. Put him in now and give him 3 or 4 years to build his profile.