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"After the slaughter, sickening jubilation"

 

© Steve Bell 2008

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That's all folks.

I guess it is this sort of response, and others in similar vein that demonstrate the point I was making. Threads on Iraq and the Israeli Palestine issue on WD can go nowhere as objective analysis is subordinated to the anti US paradigm. And the same criticism I would make in regard to the sites whose position is rigidly right wing which makes discussion on the problems in the ME there equally intellectually moribund.

The hope that Saddam would one day fall and another General less inclined to rule by terror would take his place is nothing more than a pipe dream. Most likely his murderous sons would now be in power.

And for anyone to believe that Saddam had peace in mind is not borne out by his record. Once the sanctions were lifted, and eventually they would have been since they were leaking so badly anyway with some 100 countries involved, was he going to change his spots? Was he going to be a peace loving leader in the region. Highly unlikely. He may not have had WMD when he was overthrown, but any belief that once off the UN hook and back in business, he would not have geared up very smartly again is naive. People like Saddam Hussein do not change their spots, not ever.

No one likes to see the carnage in Iraq, least of all me. And I am not an apologist for the US, any more than I am for those Iraqis killing their own people in suicide bombings and revenge attacks.  

What I hear here is people saying, because these people over there will only mass murder each other if we take out the dictator holding them together through terror, then we should always just leave them to their fate.  We cannot expect them to act with humanity toward each other, (because history tells us they can't) so don't risk upsetting the apple cart for fear of what it might unleash.  Basically true, and OK so long as you don't have to live there I suppose.

That would mean  the likes of Milosovic should have been left to sort out the problems he had with those pesky Albanian Muslims as he saw fit. And Bosnia showed us how he solved such problems. Send in Mladic for a start. Round up all the men and boys. He and Saddam made a good pair.

It seems to me the world just has to accept that there will be genocide in many parts of the world, and let things be.  

But clearly my views are not welcome here as I can see you are all getting uptight, and a tad personal. So perhaps I had better leave you all to it. Over and out.  Time to move on and not to the likes of TB's site either.  Thanks but no thanks.   

Richard:  Jenny, of course your views are welcome here.   Conversations may get heated on some topics, people are going to disagree, but I do wish you wouldn't take this as meaning your opinion isn't wanted.  Perhaps we all need to take a deep breath and count to ten.

Nonetheless Richard

Nonetheless Richard, putting any position here that does not completely agree with the paradigm obviously irritates and just leads us all in circles, circles we've been round maybe a hundred times. There is just no point to that. 

I am asked in one reply if I have never been.. but been what is not clear.

Just for the record I never believed the invasion of Iraq would achieve peace, stability and democracy there, for the reasons Father Park observes from the history of the region.  There is just no way democracy can be installed by force in the ME, and even where it supposedly exists, it is tenuous in the extreme. Think Pakistan.

I think the US could probably have secured oil supplies from Iraq without its war, if one accepts that it was only about oil and nothing else. Just suck up to Saddam again for a year or two, offer enough incentives and it would eventually have been business again. The country was leaking oil by the truckoad out the back door anyway, some 8 billions dollars worth during the FFOP. Use for instance the 600 billion spent so far on the war removing him to buy favours instead. That is par for the course in the region. 

Same with Iran. Stop the posturing, eat humble pie, stroke the national pride a bit, lift embargos and let them do what they want in regard to nuclear development, bombs or whatever. They will anyway. In the meantime work like hell to remove dependency in the West on what is in any case a declining resource as quickly as possible. Time we all lived a bit more simply anyway. We do not need even half of what we have.

War is a terrible business and if we really want to avoid it, then we must do so for as long as we can, and we can do so, provided the price is not going to be too high as it would have been with Herr Hitler.  I go along with that.  I think we should have as much peace in our time as possible, and we should let the grandkids of today sort out how to achieve peace in their time, for themselves, as our fathers did. Accept that we will have to allow the dictators to commit genocide and not intervene by force. We do it all the time anyway.  In doing so we have probably avoided a lot of other wars this past hundred years. Terrible for the victims, but what can any of us, any country really do? Endless talk fests in the UN? I guess so. 

I am just glad I was born in this country and have never had to live under a dictator or in a situation of war. I feel sorry for the millions who never know a day of peace and safety, and struggle in appalling poverty to survive, no matter who or where they are. I think it appalling that in the world one person can have a billion or billions in the bank, while a kid dies of starvation in Africa. My conscience would not allow me to do that. Just as I am appalled that anyone could publicly cut off the head of another human being on a video.

As for God, I think he would be rather ashamed of His creation of mankind. Not in my name I am sure He would be saying.

As for being defensive, folks,. I long ago stopped worrying on that score.  I just see no point in going round in circles. That is why I always hated driving a tractor. I am told former and banned WD posters are viciously slagging off at me, and no doubt others, on other sites and it does not bother me one iota. I cannot even be bothered reading them. If that's what turns them on, so be it. If they do anything, those sites, be they left or right, they tell you the true nature of  people you might have been dealing with when they posted here. And some of those natures are not very pretty. Yet they claim for themselves the moral high ground. Amazing when you come to think of it. But you always have the option of ignoring them if they return here which I do.

Now Justin. I do not include you there, but I will say that while I may be a lot of things, one word that could never be applied to me, is gutless. I do however admit to being a Christian.

Anyway, here's to you all and Richard, I am still awaiting your mailing address. Email me or you will never get to hear how old Henry should really be sung.

Mangled Hamlet

To intervene, or not to intervene: that is the question:
Whether ‘tis nobler in the mind to let others suffer
The mines and bombs of outrageous war,
Or not take arms against the likes of Saddam.

Ian, I gather you took some umbrage at me naming you “mind game player” and personal regard let alone manners dictate that I explain myself. Your last post has given me the opportunity. It’s only my perception but you appear to pose questions in such a manner as to indicate a personal position without ever stating it explicitly which then results in others falling into the trap of putting words in your mouth, (keyboard in this case of course,) whereupon you chide them. Perhaps you would care to explain your position; answer your own questions that others may answer you appropriately.

“They saw Hitler as very dangerous if possessed of a bomb, but only when Hitler took Germany into its final Gotterdammerung in 1945 was it established how dangerous. There can be little doubt that in defeat he would have taken as much as he could of Europe down with him.” and “Fortunately, he did not believe in E = mc², as it originated in the mind of a Jew.” at a glance appears contradictory especially as I have no doubt you are aware of Nazi Germany’s Deuterium oxide plant at the Vemork HE plant. (Luckily Kirk Douglas came to the rescue of civilisation but that’s another story.)

Would the citizens of Kuwait been any worse off under Saddam? I doubt it; ruthless and savage as he was he was, he was not capriciously so and Kuwait was no shining beacon of democracy in the darkness of the ME. An artificial state, along with others, created by the super powers to serve their own ends. While I was against that intervention, my main beef about it and subsequent interventions was the methodology applied to achieve the end (and in this case the needless slaughter of a hapless retreating Iraqi army, mostly young conscripts after the end had been achieved).. I have spoken to Iraqis about it and I well understand what one Hatham said of that war and subsequent sanctions. “ We hated Saddam too so why did they punish us?”

“I cannot see how the arguments applied re Iraq and Afghanistan by so many Webdiarists and others would not apply there as well.”

All too true and it’s the selective nature of the interventions that creates suspicions in peoples’ minds about the motives of the US. You could also have mentioned Burma.

Jenny, “As for God, I think he would be rather ashamed of His creation of mankind. Not in my name I am sure He would be saying.”

To borrow from Pogo, God may not be dead but he’s certainly unemployed.

Regardless, as long as I’m here you know where you can park your trailer.

Answers to my own questions

Scott: "Perhaps you would care to explain your position; answer your own questions that others may answer you appropriately."

Fair enough. Gulf War 1 should have ended with the occupation of Baghdad, the overthrow of Saddam's regime, the removal of war criminals like Saddam and Chemical Ali to the Hague, and the exit of the invasion force from Iraq. That was not possible in 1991 because (from memory) the Turks and Saudis insisted that if their territory was to be used by the US for staging the war against the Iraqi troops in Kuwait, Saddam must be left in power at the end of it, and Iraq must not be occupied.

So in answer to my own questions:

1. Under what circumstances would a military intervention as in Iraq be acceptable? A: If there was sufficient reason to believe that Saddam was preparing WMD, or if his rule of Iraq was judged by the UN (don't hold your breath) to be sufficiently bloody, or if he made any move (eg by invading a neighbour) to corner more of the world's oil supply.

2. Would a military intervention as in Iraq have been acceptable if instigated by the UN, with whatever justification? Even with just as much attributable death and destruction? A: No. If the intelligence said there would be huge casualties among civilians, then it would have to be an operation to take out Saddam (eg and his cronies, by simultaneous night air strikes on all his palaces), ie a coup from outside the country. But casualties are always unknowable in advance.

3. Would it be acceptable if the US decided to intervene in the oil-driven conflict in the Sudanese province of Darfur (with the inevitable opposition of Sudan's biggest oil customer, China, in the UN Security Council)? A: Yes. Those who would answer 'no' to (1) and (2) above, against intervention in Iraq, have no business answering 'yes' to this.

4. Or should the world and the people of Darfur wait for the UN, however long that takes? Would the inevitable deaths of Janjaweed militiamen, and any others of whatever nationality in the following hostilities, be the fault of the intervention? A: No and no. However, I fail to see how these could be the answers of those who were in principle opposed to Gulf War 1, Gulf War 2, or the UN sanctions against Iraq. (eg the aforesaid John Pilger wrote : "The UN estimates that 100,000 Iraqis are fleeing the country every month. The refugee crisis has now overtaken that of Darfur as the most catastrophic on earth." That is about as much on Darfur by the said Pilger as I have been able to find on the web. A touchy topic, perhaps, as Muslims there are fighting Muslims. His answers to question 4 would have to be: Yes and yes, for consistency.

Perhaps, if the federal principles that gave rise to the EU continue through the world, we will one day have a global federation of states, and a global intervention force with the authority to pick out lice like Saddam Hussein and the present Sudanese junta. But that, as I see it, is a long time off.

I opposed the war

Ian MacDougall, I have been trying to reconstruct my motives in opposing the Iraq war, excluding as far as possible the benefits of hindsight.

First was a deep mistrust of American motives. This no doubt counts as being "anti-American", but I maintain it is simply a rational response to America's long history of foreign policy adventures.

Second, we were clearly being fed a pack of lies. It was obvious at the time that there was no significant connection between Saddam Hussein and al-Qaeda. It was equally obvious that Iraq's WMD (if any) were no threat. UNSCOM left behind accounting discrepancies, and UNMOVIC was not finding anything, even with the best US intelligence. Blair's "45 minutes" was clearly a battlefield estimate, sexed up to look like a threat to the home counties. The aluminium tubes and the Niger deal had already been debunked. Powell simply looked foolish with his vial of "anthrax" (probably castor sugar). If you want me to support you in a war, you would do better to convince me you are telling me the truth.

Third, and hardest to retrieve without hindsight, is the evaluation of the probable consequences of the invasion.

It was probable that the focus of the American Rules of Engagement would be on the preservation of American lives at any cost - basically a shoot first, second and third policy, and don't bother about the questions. Air strikes would be called in on suspicion - it's just like a video game, but with bigger bangs. There would be rape and pillage, just like any war. Whatever the military victory (which was inevitable), that would mean that the CoW had killed a hell of a lot of more or less innocent Iraqis. Not a good thing, either in terms of the immediate casualties or in the alienation of the civilian population.

It was improbable that ousting Saddam Hussein would result in any significant improvement, long term, in the governance of Iraq. To the extent that Americans had a plan it was rose petals and Chalabi, but that was never going to work. More likely was either the emergence of another Big Man or an Islamist state - neither very attractive, and either likely to rival Saddam for nastiness. This process is still working itself out, but I am not optimistic.

PS: Ian, can you provide evidence that Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait "to corner more of the world's oil supply"? I haven't seen it argued before, except to the extent that Iraq claimed that Kuwait was drilling Iraq's oil, which is not very far at all. I haven't read it through, but the Wikipedia article on the Invasion of Kuwait seem to provide a much more probable explanation.

No easy choice

Mark Sergeant, you present a good case, but I don’t find it strong enough to adopt for myself. One could not oppose Bush, however much one danced and ducked, without supporting Saddam Hussein: one of the greatest and most deliberate mass-murderers of all human history, and a most dangerous man. However, I have never maintained that the choice was easy.

Your first motive for opposing the war “was a deep mistrust of American motives."

The American motive was straightforward in my view: to secure the US supply (or more exactly, the Halliburton et al supply) of Iraqi oil by removing Saddam Hussein from control of it. This was not the first time in history that bastards have fallen out with each other. The choice for all of us was clear: which one to support?  Important consequences and implications (positive and negative) flowed  from each alternative.

Second, we were clearly being fed a pack of lies. It was obvious at the time that there was no significant connection between Saddam Hussein and al-Qaeda.”

Agreed: not about the  pack of lies, but the (tenuous) al-Qaeda connection. I said so in a Webdiary post at the time.

It was equally obvious that Iraq's WMD (if any) were no threat.”

Was that so? We are not simply talking about the stockpile of WMD (of whatever size), but rather about Saddam’s whole program, and that, while it was on, was open ended. Richard Butler, author of Saddam Defiant, headed UNSCOM. Saddam’s efforts to frustrate the UNSCOM inspectors had convinced Butler that he had WMD and was hiding them. We now know that Saddam had secretly closed down the program, but in an effort to convince the world, the Iraqi military, and the Iraqi population, was doing his very best to give the impression that he still had them. In this, he succeeded, and likely beyond his wildest expectations.

In my view, the most likely consequence of a nuclear arms race in the Middle East will be nuclear war there, sooner or later. Probably sooner, as the Israelis would find pre-emptive first strikes highly tempting, having already made one against Saddam’s Osirak  reactor in 1981. Other WMD ditto.

Third, and hardest to retrieve without hindsight, is the evaluation of the probable consequences of the invasion.”

Not only “hardest to retrieve without hindsight”, but also hard to achieve with foresight. However, all commentators (except of course, John Pilger and Robert Fisk) agreed that the casualties on both sides, by the time of Bush’s ‘Mission Accomplished’ speech had been surprisingly light. The bombs and bullets of the ‘insurgency’ (the latter cheered on by the said Pilger) were what created the bulk of the war’s casualties. The overwhelming majority of the victims of this war have been directly killed or injured by Iraqi ‘insurgent’ action. The argument that the US is ultimately responsible reduces to the proposition that the best and most humane course was to leave Saddam in power. This is what you, Mark, are forced into when you say: “It was improbable that ousting Saddam Hussein would result in any significant improvement, long term, in the governance of Iraq.”
That is one way of looking at it. The paralysis that flows from it can best be understood by substituting the words ‘Mugabe’ and ‘Zimbabwe’ for ‘Saddam Hussein’ and ‘Iraq’.

“Ian, can you provide evidence that Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait ‘to corner more of the world's oil supply’? I haven't seen it argued before, except to the extent that Iraq claimed that Kuwait was drilling Iraq's oil, which is not very far at all. I haven't read it through, but the Wikipedia article on the Invasion of Kuwait seem to provide a much more probable explanation.”

Mark, if you do read that Wikipedia  article right through, you will find a hell of a lot more evidence than you found at first glance.

A Pack of lies

You don't think it was a pack of lies, Ian?

You have agreed about the al-Qaeda connection.

What about the 45 minutes claim? If Saddam had chemical munitions then they may have been usable on the battlefield in 45 minutes (probably not, but maybe). That's not what was represented, though. It was an attack on British soil, which would mean an ICBM, or bombardment from the channel. Neither a suitcase bomb or an air bombing would meet the 45 minutes criterion. Was it a lie? It would have been laughable, if not so serious.

What about the aluminium tubes? As best we know there was conflicting advice, with the ones most likely to know saying roughly that the tubes could, at a stretch, be converted to centrifuges, but the probable use was in artillery shells. That's not what was represented. If the administration has that sort of advice, and says "the tubes are for centrifuges", is that a lie?

The Niger uranium deal had already been debunked, too. The USA had dodgy intelligence that Niger was supplying Uranium, and expert advice that the intelligence had no foundation. It chose to go with the discredited "intelligence". Was that a lie?

Strictly speaking, maybe none of them qualify as a "lie", but I think it's reasonable to consider them, collectively, as a pack of lies.

Zimbabwe: Just a Bit Pertinent

Mark, we can take it as read then. When Saddam Hussein was attacked by Bush, with support from Blair and Howard, you weighed up the issues and supported Saddam Hussein.

Fair enough, and understandable. For reasons I hope that you might find equally understandable, I chose not to.

Of relevance here is a piece from the South African writer Justice Malala in The Times (Johannesburg) of 31/03/2008, via Jeff Weintraub

When our children learn the history of post-colonial Africa, they will be confronted with a case history: Zimbabwe.

They will learn how the bread basket of Africa descended into chaos, with the highest inflation rate in the world.

They will learn that about four million Zimbabweans fled hunger and political persecution.

They will learn about a kleptocracy that lined its pockets while the poor died.

This will not be a history lesson. It will be a dissection of a massacre.

By the elections of March 29 2008, our children will read, the average life expectancy of a Zimbabwean woman was 34 years and that of a man 37…

Our children will learn that during the previous election the South African observers were beaten up by police. And that those bandaged heroes declared as free and fair an election universally condemned as rigged…

They will learn that, only a year before these elections, the same police officers destroyed the homes of thousands in President Robert Mugabe’s inhumane “Operation Murambatsvina”.

Our children will learn that these same police beat opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai to within an inch of his life only a year earlier, forcing him to seek medical treatment in South Africa.

At this point our children will ask the teacher (perhaps a Zimbabwean who is a naturalised South African): “But what did our parents do? What did South Africa say when all this was happening?”

And our children will learn that for nine years the president of South Africa pursued a senseless, immoral policy of “quiet diplomacy”.

In essence, the policy meant that South Africa chose to be friends with Mugabe, aiding and abetting the dictator while desperate Zimbabweans fled torture and imprisonment.

They will learn that Nelson Mandela, the iconic first president of the new and democratic South Africa, spoke out about leaders who clung to power at the expense of their people and was told to shut up; that Archbishop emeritus Desmond Tutu spoke up and was vilified by the dictator Mugabe, the South African presidency and its acolytes.

And they will learn that most South Africans expressed neither outrage nor shame at what was happening just across their border; that they went about their business without a care…

By the time our children ask what South Africans did about this outrage, Zimbabwe will be just another African country paying off massive debt to the World Bank when it could have been a beacon of peace, prosperity and hope.

Grand Strategy

Ian, we can take it as read then, that when Bush invaded Iraq, you weighed up the issues and supported the killing of an unknown (but probably large) number of civilians, the probability of a continuing period of instability (with, probably, a large number of casualties), and the long-term probability of a regime marginally, if at all, better than Saddam. And, incidentally, strengthening the polar opposites of Islamic fundamentalism: al-Qaeda and the Iranian mullahs.

I don't think you supported those things any more than I supported Saddam. But to the extent that I supported Saddam, that is what you supported.

Your reasons I find confusing. There is an impression that you are arguing for the welfare of the Iraqi people, and that, ultimately, the price will be worth it. Whatever the motives, which you have been scathing about, attacking Saddam was right. But on reflection, most of your posts seem to be arguing the Grand Strategy. It's all about oil has been prominent, and the WMD, and that it was justifiable on those grounds.

To the extent that your reasons where the welfare of the Iraqi people, they are understandable, though, I think, misguided. The Grand Strategy I am not happy with at all.

What is it that you advocate regarding Zimbabwe, Ian? I'd call myself an admirer of Nelson Mandela and Desmond Tutu, but I don't see them advocating a military solution. We can agree that South Africa has not been applying sufficient public (and probably private) pressure, but should it have gone further than that? How far?

The enemy of my enemy is inescapably my friend

"Ian, we can take it as read then, that when Bush invaded Iraq, you weighed up the issues and supported the killing of an unknown (but probably large) number of civilians, the probability of a continuing period of instability (with, probably, a large number of casualties), and the long-term probability of a regime marginally, if at all, better than Saddam. And, incidentally, strengthening the polar opposites of Islamic fundamentalism: al-Qaeda and the Iranian mullahs.

I don't think you supported those things any more than I supported Saddam. But to the extent that I supported Saddam, that is what you supported."

No, Mark. I'm afraid that (on the basis of the old dictum 'the enemy of my enemy is my friend', as it no doubt came at the time from the mouth of Saddam Hussein) if your choice was to oppose Bush, it was automatically to support Saddam, regardless of whatever verbalisations you may have come up with at the time to the contrary. You had the advantage (?) of a known tyrant with a known record of disposition to slaughter, both domestically and in foreign wars of his own making. You were betting that what would come after Saddam would be a regime "marginally, if at all, better than Saddam," (ie not worth the trouble). I was betting that what would come after could scarcely be worse, and had a good chance of being a hell of a lot better, given the known sizes of the likely support bases of the Baathists vs their Shia and Kurdish opponents. But I and those on the left who thought along the same lines - eg Norman Geras, Pamela Bone, Christopher Hitchens - had no record to go by, as no open organised opposition to Saddam was permitted in Iraq.

I will however, admit to having made one assumption that turned out to be wrong. I assumed that the Bush Administration would act to advance its own and its American supporters' long-term best interests, and would plan the occupation as least as well as it did the invasion. The expectations of Iraqi democrats and trade unionists were also high re this, and there was great optimism as the transitional Bremer regime began. The euphoria around the subsequent elections masked the economic mismanagement (eg the oil exports were secured, but not the incomes of the 300,000 men of the Iraqi Army - surely elementary if they were not to turn their skills over to the militias) that played a great part in sending the whole thing into its present drawn out, and possibly terminal, crisis. This, I emphasise again, was not predictable at the beginning, because one would reasonably assume that the US would have the collective nous to act in its own best interests.

Condemn the stand I took, and you have to also condemn all of the Kurds, all the trade unionists, all of the liberals and democrats, most of the Shias, and even a fair few of the Sunnis. Understandably, since the rise of the 'insurgency' many of the above who could make it are now in exile. Many others, true to the logic of feudalism, have sought the blessing of a patron such as el-Sadr.

"...The killing of an unknown (but probably large) number of civilians, the probability of a continuing period of instability (with, probably, a large number of casualties), and the long-term probability of a regime marginally, if at all, better than Saddam..." you say with the benefit of hindsight. I suggest that in 2003 there were some predicting that scenario, just as there were some predicting the Second Coming. No probability on a scale 0-10 could be assigned, and of course, none made the attempt.

My reading of history tells me that the overthrow of tyrants has always been for the good. (I cannot think of a single exception.) My political choice came straight out of that. Saddam Hussein was one of the all-time worst tyrants in recorded history.

We are all friends!

Saddam is my enemy.

Saddam and bin Laden are enemies.

Therefore bin Laden is my friend.

bin Laden is my enemy.

Saddam and bin Laden are enemies.

Therefore Saddam is my friend.

We are all friends!

Chickenhawks and vultures

This [American mismanagement of the "peace"], I emphasise again, was not predictable at the beginning, because one would reasonably assume that the US would have the collective nous to act in its own best interests.
You had rather more faith in the competence and good will of the Americans than many of us, Ian. At the time it was clear that the main inputs to strategy (including for the "peace") were coming from PNAC, Halliburton (via Cheney) and parts (mainly civilian) of DoD. State was mainly on the sidelines. Chickenhawks and vultures - the prospects were never good.

I said earlier in this thread that the plan was "rose petals and Chalabi", quoting myself from The United States-v-David Hicks (at August 1, 2005 09:02 PM). That doesn't disprove hindsight, but my recollection is that Chalabi's history was well known at the time, and that the American theory seemed to be that after the war, everything would be rosy. Overthrow Saddam, and democracy would flower by itself. It sounds like bullshit now, and it sounded like bullshit then.

The old dictum

"I'm afraid that (on the basis of the old dictum 'the enemy of my enemy is my friend', as it no doubt came at the time from the mouth of Saddam Hussein) if your choice was to oppose Bush, it was automatically to support Saddam, regardless of whatever verbalisations you may have come up with at the time to the contrary."

That old dictum is not a sound basis.  It is not sound logic. 

The enemy of my enemy is my enemy's enemy. No more. No less.

UNSCOM

Others have commented on UNMOVIC and Blix, I'll stick to UNSCOM. When it left Iraq, UNSCOM had accounted for 95% of Iraq's known WMD. What was unaccounted for was well within the range of natural shrinkage. From memory, some of it was biological growth media already well past its use-by date. The possibility of unknown WMD programs had been pretty well scrutinised, too. Butler, despite being a great Australian, was being self-serving. He needed to counter accusations that he had been serving the USA rather than the UN, so he did. He may well have believed it, as well. In fact, he had extraordinary access, and was unable to find what wasn't there.

That's pretty much what Scott Ritter was saying in the lead up to Iraq2, and it was evident at the time when UNSCOM withdrew from Iraq.

Saddam wasn't trying to corner the market

Ian MacDougall, I've now read The Wikipedia article (Invasion of Kuwait) and think it supports my position rather more than yours. What you originally implied was that Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait "to corner more of the world's oil supply", unqualified. There may have been other motives, but the main one was to get hold of the oil. Actually, rather more than that - to gain strategic control over more of the world's oil.

Wikipedia has a list of six causes of the conflict. The nearest to relevant is 1.3 - Iraq's lucrative economy which says (today, anyway):

After the Iran-Iraq War, the Iraqi economy was struggling to recover. Iraq's civil and military debt was higher than its state budget. On the other hand, with its vast oil reserves, Kuwait was regarded as one of the world's wealthiest and most economically stable countries. The Iraqi government clearly realized that by seizing Kuwait, it would be able to solve its financial problems and consolidate its regional authority. Due to its relatively small size, Kuwait was seen by Baghdad as an easy target.
But even this is not about cornering the world's oil supply. It's about a grab for financial and economic resources.

Here is my reading of the Kuwait invasion: Saddam thought (and had reason to believe) that he was waging war against Iran not just for his own benefit, but in defence of Arabs, Sunnis and the West against militant Shia Islam. When the war was over and his economy in ruins he was really pissed off that no-one was saying what a great hero he was. Not only that, but they were asking to be paid, and screwing the oil market so he couldn't pay even if he'd been prepared to. Add to that the slant-drilling and a historical belief that Kuwait was part of Iraq, and he was rearing to go. A little mis-reading of US diplomacy, and he went.

Perhaps Saddam got it wrong

Mark: "But even this [Saddam's invasion of Kuwait] is not about cornering the world's oil supply. It's about a grab for financial and economic resources."

If you read what I wrote you will find that I never said Saddam sought to "corner the world's oil supply."

Perhaps when Saddam invaded Kuwait, he expected to find something more than 10% of the world's oil reserves, and an economy which is oil and not much else. Perhaps he expected to find bank vaults stuffed full of gold and petrodollars from past oil sales. Maybe he thought the sheiks of Kuwait would never have heard of real estate in London, New York etc like normal sheiks know only too well about, and kept their cash under the mattress.

Kuwait's 2.7 million barrels a day added to Iraq's 2 million, made a daily production just a tad over Iran's 4.1 million - which he had already made a (failed) grab for.

Now if, say, he had a second go at Iran and won, it would put him in the 9 million barrels a day league, second only to Russia and Saudi Arabia. And shaky old Saudi (10.7 million) happens to be next door. But I'm no mind reader, and can't say that these were his actual intentions. But then again, strategic thinking is mainly in terms of capabilities and possibilities, and very little about intentions.

Dreams

Ian MacDougall, the conversation has moved on, but there a few things I need to respond to. Here is the first:

It's true that you didn't say "corner the world's oil supply". What you said was "corner more of the world's oil supply", and that's what I quoted. But since cornering the market is all about gaining strategic control of a resource in order to manipulate the market I felt at liberty to leave out your qualification in the discussion.

Here are the top three definitions provided by the usual search engine: Wikipedia; The Free Dictionary and Investopedia. All are about the strategic control of a resource for market manipulation, not about a grab for cash.

There was rather more to the Iran-Iraq war than a grab for oil, too: A 500 year border dispute; Arabs v Persians; Sunni v Shia; secular v militant Islam. Saddam probably thought it would be popular with the Americans.The Jewish Virtual Library does not mention oil as a motive at all.

Very likely Saddam used to occasionally dream of controlling the world's oil market, but I don't believe it was a significant motivating factor in his adventures, and I haven't seen anything to cause me to doubt that belief. Controlling some more of the worlds oil, though, for the immediate and future revenue, was no doubt a significant motive - but one among many.

A dispute whose age is hardly relevant

Mark: Whether Saddam announced it as his intention or not, the fact of the matter was that the oilfields of the Iranian province of Khuzestan were both a battlefield in the 1980–1988 war and a matter of territorial contention historically going back more than 500 years, vide this Wikipedia entry:

"Although the Iran-Iraq war from 1980–1988 was a war for dominance of the Persian Gulf region, the roots of the war go back many centuries. There has been rivalry between kingdoms of Mesopotamia (the Tigris-Euphrates valley, modern Iraq) and the rugged highlands to the East (Persia or modern Iran) since the beginning of recorded history in Sumer.

"Of strategic importance was the question of sovereignty over the resource-rich province of Khuzestan. Before the Ottoman empire 1299-1922, Iraq was part of Persia. The rising power of the Ottomans put an end to this when Suleyman I annexed Arabian Iraq. The Turkish Sultan and general, Murad IV recaptured Baghdad from the Safavids of Persia in 1638 via the Treaty of Zuhab (Peace of Qasr-e-Shirin). The border disputes between Persia and the Ottomans never ended. Between 1555 and 1918, Persia and the Ottoman empire signed no fewer than 18 treaties delineating their disputed borders. Today's border comes from the Treaty of Zuhab. Modern Iraq was created from the British Mandate of Mesopotamia, formed after the final collapse of the Ottoman empire following the First World War, thereby inheriting all the disputes with Persia."

How far back the dispute went is hardly relevant to the fact that a total victory for Iraq in that war would have given Saddam Hussein control over Iran's oil, and a strategic win at least the greater part of it.

Apropos of my last post, a victory for the 'insurgency' in Iraq and the installation of (say) Muqtada al-Sadr as a the Shia tribes preferred dictator could well make Abu Ghraib prison figure in Iraq's future as it did in the past under Saddam. The probability of that is open to debate, but I suggest it is greater than zero.

Black and white

"One could not oppose Bush, however much one danced and ducked, without supporting Saddam Hussein."

Not so.  One could oppose them both, as one could oppose Saddam Hussein and advocate a means to deal with that despot that was different to the means Bush would authorise.

It was obvious

On 7 March 2003, Mohamed ElBaradei, Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, formally reported to the Security Council that:

"After three months of intrusive inspections, we have to date found no evidence or plausible indication of the revival of a nuclear weapon program in Iraq."

That it wasn't urgent

George Bush and Tony Blair were explicit that the decision to invade Iraq rested on what Bush called a "single question" and as the answer to that single question in early 2003, as provided by Mohamed ElBaradei and Hans Blix, was that there was no evidence or plausible indication of the revival of a WMD program in Iraq, there was no evidence that made military action against Iraq an urgent necessity in March 2003.

A tad defensive?

But clearly my views are not welcome here as I can see you are all getting uptight, and a tad personal.

Clearly I have a different view for I can see little - outside of the fact that replies might be directed to you Jenny - that is personal. I think that is just a tad defensive.

What I hear here is people saying, because these people over there will only mass murder each other if we take out the dictator holding them together through terror, then we should always just leave them to their fate.  We cannot expect them to act with humanity toward each other, (because history tells us they can't) so don't risk upsetting the apple cart for fear of what it might unleash.

Not in my case Jenny, not in mine. Please don't take this personally but I believe you've missed my point. Yes, historically, these groups have always been a thought away from running each other through - or shooting each other nowadays - on the basis of their interpretation of Islam if not for any deeper ethnic reason. The Kurds are a case in point: independant - many times bloodily - of many powers over their long history as often as they were subjects of those powers.

The point is if one is going to invade and remake another country, then you need not to do it in a half-arsed fashion. The information those aggrandising individuals in Washington needed was there before the invasion: they chose - consciously - to ignore it. The invaded would pay the war cost and it would be all over in weeks. New country. Just like that. The British experience stood as motorway barrier proclaiming "Go Back: Wrong Way". No matter, that's history.

It was botched from the start by people who well knew better. They were going to turn the corner store into Myer City on a Black and Gold budget and approach. Where are those people?

Going over the reasons for the war - the justification - is fatuous. The case was rank with malfeasance and distortion. Sedulously compliant politicians in Britain and elsewhere signed on for their own reasons: to still play a part redolent of empire days or for gain: be it access or commercial.

I have written here and elsewhere that the US action is not terribly hard to understand: it is doing what all others in its position have done before it. No more and very little less. No moral comment, just the observation. Right and wrong will eventually be judged by history but, in the meantime, the US continues to set about guaranteeing its access to resources - access, not of necessity ownership.

Now to apply your statement to the reason for American action: should it allow those regimes over there to continue - on a whim - to control, parcel out or deny access to an overwhelmingly important resource - for history tells us they do - or should we go restructure the apple cart in a way that affords us secure access?

'Round and around we go

Yes, Jenny Hume, "the security of this country depends on the US" and "it is a fact." That we in Australia have got ourselves in a position where we are beholden to an imperial power whose leadership is unaccountable to the Australian people, and whose moral rationale tends toward the opaque, is one of the great quandaries of our time with which we all must grapple, in our own way.

The world order is a 'work in progress' and most of us get some of it somewhat wrong some of the time while waiting for the dice to fall. Most of us, however, do not get things so wrong, wrong, WRONG! as the architects of the Iraq conquest have done.

That this, arguably criminal, incompetence and dereliction has contributed to the most catastrophic foreign policy failure of at least the last forty years would probably explain why it's become such a talking point, for better or worse, and will continue to be for the forseeable future.

Sadly, it's inevitable that any discussion of the minutiae and dimensions of this disaster will reflect poorly on those architects. As the latter also happen to be American, the railing of some against perceived 'anti-Americanism' will inevitably also be a feature of 'debate'.

Those 'assessments' you've alluded to, of the 'immaturity' of 'the left', are apposite so far as they go, albeit quite often as one-eyed and immature as those they intend to criticise. I didn't see much evidence of 'maturity' in the conduct of so-called debate in the lead-up to the invasion, while the conduct of the leadership of 'the West' has tended to inscrutable on the basis of stated rationales.

But please, yes, let's slag off at 'the Left' and pathologise their behaviours. 'The Left', meanwhile, will please refrain from likewise pathologising 'the Right's' uncritical, complacent, filial fixation on Big Strong Daddy USA, who as an article of faith will protect and provide, if only those 'anti-Americans' will let Him just get on with it without hindrance. Free thought is one thing, but if only 'the Left' would just get with the program and think correct thoughts like 'the Right'.

The purported 'inconsistency' of 'the Left' you've identified in relation to Tibet and Burma is, with respect, a red herring. Many on 'the Left' are active on those issues, as undoubtedly are many on 'the Right'. It's inconceivable, of course, that some of us might invest as much energy against the evils of China and Burma as we do in criticising our own. (While tapping this out, I see Fiona has posted some remarks in relation to this point.)

Personally I'll be happy to discontinue my 'anti-American' rants just as soon as Webdiary stops posting Iraq-related threads. Travelling 'round in circles is really such a monumentally futile waste of time.

As for the Iraqis "killing their own", you should know as well as anyone that, by definition, those "they" kill are not "their own". The tribal and sectarian fissures within the Iraqi 'nation' have been comprehensively discussed here and elsewhere. Post-invasion 'planning' failed to address this potential problem. The arrogance and hubris of turning an entire country into a free-fire zone, and then expecting it to stop being so at one's whim, further contributed to this failure. The introduction into Iraq, consequent upon the invasion, of 'nihilistic' Islamist terror — as distinct from the more familiar state terror, as perfected by Saddam — is yet another consequence of those failures.

As much as internecine slaughter among Iraqis cannot be excused, neither can such failures as these and others. Occupying powers have clear obligations under customary international law to protect subject civilian populations from harm and violence.

Wagging one's finger and tut-tutting about the carnage is fine if that's what cranks one's gear, but doesn't address the complexity of the problems faced by the unfortunate Iraqis.

When all you have is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail. When in a hole, keep digging.

Drolleries, I know, but somehow those expressions continue to leap to mind in relation to this topic.

Criminal arrogance

The arrogance and hubris of turning an entire country into a free-fire zone, and then expecting it to stop being so at one's whim, further contributed to this failure. The introduction into Iraq, consequent upon the invasion, of 'nihilistic' Islamist terror — as distinct from the more familiar state terror, as perfected by Saddam — is yet another consequence of those failures.

And, as you correctly point out Jacob, it wasn't as if the results of removing the lid on sectarian and tribal enmities wasn't pointed out to the oh so eager "planners" of this invasion and occupation. There were many ignored voices prior to the invasion which pointed out exactly what would happen as a consequence of Rumsfeld's invasion "lite". Those who pointed out that the planning and, even more importantly, the numbers involved in that planning were far too low were dismissed. Sometimes literally.

What was even more cogent was the example - plain to see and well known - of botched and bloody British experience early last century and its results. That this was repeated, damn near flawlessly, is a monumental indictment of the perspicacity and abilities of the individuals involved. Criminal is the correct word.

It is a fact that the type of "Islamic-terror" being visited upon Iraqis in the aftermath of this war was not present before it. There is no excuse for this disgusting murder of innocents under Islam as the cloak of convenience. This and the religious or "sectarian" war -  underway between adherents to sects whose wedding trains of bloody enmity extend back near millenia - was a certainty predicted given the vacuum induced by the absolutely inept post war planning. And it was apparent prior to the invasion.

What might be even more criminal was the utter arrogant intransigence of an administration caught impotent in the  eye of the perfect storm of its own making. The numbers were right and there was no need for further troop deployments; we need just to chase down recidivist Ba'athists; once we destroy the terrorists in Falluja all will be fine. Years of pathetic pronouncements aimed squarely at defending the "invasion lite" theory. Then, finally, a desperate appeal to support the new initiative: the surge. The antithesis of the administration's years of argument.

Tibet and the "left"

Jenny Hume: "If the left were consistent then it would be just as concerned about the slaughter in other parts of the world such as Tibet and Burma. But these places do not allow for the anti US paradigm to be pushed so they are largely ignored by the left  when it comes to WD at least. That speaks volumes."

Here's what that old, unreconstructed leftie Mungo MacCallum had to say in today's edition of Crikey:

The almost universal view from the west is that the Chinese occupation of Tibet is a crime. Tibet was, and should be still, an independent and peaceful nation minding its own business and threatening no-one. The Chinese takeover was an act of naked aggression which could not be legitimised by spurious appeals to history and geography, as Beijing has attempted for at least fifty years.

Since then there has been widespread repression and violation of human rights and attacks on people and property aimed at destroying the entire Tibetan culture. While the Chinese remain, things can only get worse. Morally, there is no alternative to a free Tibet. The international community should use every legitimate means to bring this about, starting with a boycott of the Beijing Olympics.

If only it was so simple. For starters, an Olympic boycott would almost certainly do no good at all; the patchy boycott of the Moscow Olympics in 1980 did nothing to get the Russians out of Afghanistan. Indeed, given the paranoid state of Chinese politics, a boycott could be seriously counterproductive, leading to still tighter control from the Communist Party. Anyway, the Dalai Lama himself has advised against a boycott.

So it seems only sensible to rule this out. But that leaves ... what? Trade bans involving the world’s largest importer of raw materials and largest exporter of consumer goods are obviously impractical; they might eventually hurt China, but they would wreck the rest of the world economy in the process. And again, there is no reason to believe that this kind of punitive action would benefit the Tibetans.

All that is left is persuasion and diplomacy, and these have not been too successful in the past either. The core fact that must be recognised is that, to Beijing, China’s territorial claim to Tibet is incontestable and non-negotiable.

In practice this has been the political reality for many years: Chinese sovereignty over Tibet is bipartisan policy in Australia, as it is in most of the world. Again, even the Dalai Lama accepts that Tibet will not regain full independence. The best that can be hoped for is a fair degree of autonomy, free of the constant authoritarian presence of the Chinese military. But this would involve an end to the protests in Lhasa, which are generally regarded by the rest of the world as entirely justified.

To Beijing, of course, they are acts of open rebellion, a threat to national security, and must be treated as such. The mainstream view in China is that the arrival of the People’s Army signalled not an invasion but a liberation (sound familiar?) by which the peasants were freed from a cruel and intolerant theocracy run by bloated monks who stole the wealth of the people to create an obscenely opulent lifestyle for themselves and whose leader fled to India to plot for his return to resume his oppressive regime.

In the years since then the material well-being of all Tibetans has increased immeasurably, particularly in the fields of health, housing and secular education. Society has been reformed and modernised, giving people from all backgrounds more choice of careers and lifestyles. The younger generation in particular now have opportunities of which their parents could not even dream. And this has been made possible by the sacrifices of their fellow Chinese, who have worked in a severe and alien environment to bring the benefits of civilisation to their benighted fellows; not many Han Chinese actually enjoy life on the plateau.

Under the circumstances, those demonstrating for a return to the bad old days must be seen as criminal reactionaries, enemies of the people. But of course they are not; they are the people, or at least the more militant representatives of the people. What the Chinese view overlooks is that the Tibetans’ hunger for independence can override any feelings of gratitude for increased material well-being, and that indeed the extra prosperity and education they have acquired will in themselves generate a desire for more control over their own lives.

This should not be surprising; the Tibetans are hardly unique. In recent times we have seen the same drive in East Timor, in former Soviet states and in the Balkans. And perhaps we are still seeing it in Iraq. The Chinese themselves have gone through similar periods in their long history. Nationalism is a force which, once unleashed, is very hard to stop. But in the case of Tibet, Beijing is determined to show that it can be done, and nothing the rest of the world says is going to change its mind – at least in the foreseeable future.

I'm left of centre, this is Webdiary, and Tibet is most definitely a topic for discussion. However, like so many international problems, there is no easy solution.

What a World

 Fiona, If you want to know why we live in the best country in the world have a look at this website. It is a map of all the trouble spots in real time. It is frightening and a bit scary.

Fiona: Thank you, Alan. Interesting indeed. I'm somewhat surprised that South America seems almost unaffected (given little things like the drug cartels in Colombia etc), but not at all by the absense of trouble spots in Canada and Russia. Now, why might that be so??

Tibet and the Olympics

Fiona, I cannot agree with Mungo, the Chinese have spent countless millions on this Olympics and if nobody went and there was no television coverage I think they would get the message. Of course it will not happen, because what is a few Tibetan lives worth as opposed to some drug taking athlete winning a gold medal? Maybe 007 will have something to say when he gets there, I doubt it.

Ultimately

Ultimately the left should recognise that the security of this country depends on the US. That may stick in the collective throat but it is a fact.

One assessment I read of the left's view concerning Islamic terrorism and complexities of the situation in the ME was that it was immature. I would go along with that, but it is also more than that. It is deliberately biased in so far as comment must at all times reflect the anti US paradigm. That makes it intellectually moribund in my opionion.  

Meanwhile, I see the Iraqis continue to murder their own innocent men women and children trying to go about their daily lives. For that there can be no excuse. No excuse whatsoever.

If the left were consistent then it would be just as concerned about the slaughter in other parts of the world such as Tibet and Burma. But these places do not allow for the anti US paradigm to be pushed so they are largely ignored by the left  when it comes to WD at least. That speaks volumes.

If you have a moral code then you practice and preach it across the board, and I would include in that one's conduct toward each other in this society. Frankly the comments I read on the blogosphere, put there by Australians toward other Australians on unmoderated sites, reflect an appalling lack of concern for the feelings of their fellow human beings. I see the very worst of human nature on those sites.

Narrow moralism

Sometime war-booster Andrew Sullivan reflects on "What I Got Wrong About Iraq", under the sub-heading "Narrow moralism".

I recall very clearly one night before the war began. I made myself write down the reasons for and against the war and realized that if there were question marks on both sides, the deciding factor for me in the end was that I could never be ashamed of removing someone as evil as Saddam from power. I became enamored of my own morality and this single moral act. And he was a monster, as we discovered. But what I failed to grasp is that war is also a monster, and that unless one weighs all the possibly evil consequences of an abstractly moral act, one hasn't really engaged in anything much but self-righteousness. I saw war's unknowable consequences far too glibly.

The rest is worth a read, too. (Via Antony Loewenstein.)

No excuse

There did come a time when it was said by those opposing the invasion of Iraq that there can be no excuse for the deliberate killings of Iraqis by other Iraqis.  That time was before the invasion, during the invasion, and during the occupation. Indeed, I've seen not one opponent of the invasion ever "excuse" the killing. 

And it must be said, irrespective of where you stood in relation to the invasion of Iraq, that there comes a time when it has to be admitted by those supporting the invasion that there can be no excuse for refusing to understand and acknowledge all factors causing the circumstances in which there has been deliberate killings of Iraqis by other Iraqis.  

How to Disintergrate a City - Part 1

Before April 2003, about half of the city's neighborhoods had no particular ethnic character. Over the course of five years, Baghdad has been reduced to half-destroyed buildings and next to no public services, dotted by partially deserted, mutually hostile mini-ghettos that used to be neighborhoods, surrounded by cement barriers reminiscent of medieval fortifications.

In late 2004, thousands of Sunnis, driven out of Falluja began arriving in Baghdad. In increasingly crowded neighborhoods, ethnic friction rose. Sunni militias, originally organised to deal with local crime (after the Iraqi police force was dismantled) began to turn on Shia residents in some of Baghdad's hundreds of mixed neighbourhoods.

During 2005, the first stream of displaced Shia began arriving in Baghdad's vast, already overcrowded Shia slum of Sadr City. Then in January 2006, the bombing of the revered Shia shrine, the Golden Dome mosque in Samarra, triggered sweeping Shia reprisals against Sunni communities. In Baghdad, a struggle for the dominance of mixed neighbourhoods began.

And we're to believe the US invasion and occupation played no part in creating this situation?

Something of value

Thanks Craig, this chap has well beaten me to the punch.

Irrespective of where you stood

Irrespective of where you stood in relation to the invasion of Iraq, there comes a time when it has to be admitted by those opposing the invasion that there can be no excuse for the deliberate killings of Iraqis by other Iraqis.  

One can only wonder just how they justify their mass killing of innocent people.  I could understand them targeting US troops, but these people are deliberately targeting men women and children in markets and such places, knowing what the result will be.

It demonstrates an appalling lack of empathy with human suffering and a total disregard for the lives of their fellow citizens and Muslims.  It is a terrible indictment of the faith they claim to hold. There is no excuse for such acts. If you want to fight an invader then you target the troops, not families out shopping.

I think it is time to stop apologising for these killers as patriotic fighters trying to evict an invader, and see them for what they really are. Mass murderers with a whole lot of agendas of their own that can have little to do with the US.  

Would we make excuses for people in Australia if we had been occupied by the Japanese and they went about blowing up hundreds of their fellow Australians in the shopping malls during that occupation?

I say it is time the slaughter carried out by Iraqi insurgents was seen for what it is and that the left stop trying to use it as just another reason to condemn the US. Making the US the fall guy for the sake of it, as appears here to be most often the case, achieves nothing. 

Any perception that the killing will stop if the US pulls out is totally naive.  That view also reflects a shallow inderstanding of the complexity of the problems that are currently plaguing the Muslim world, particularly in the ME and parts of Asia.

Remember the IRA.

Jenny, you say of the war in Iraq: 

"It demonstrates an appalling lack of empathy with human suffering and a total disregard for the lives of their fellow citizens and Muslims.  It is a terrible indictment of the faith they claim to hold. There is no excuse for such acts. If you want to fight an invader then you target the troops, not families out shopping.

I think it is time to stop apologising for these killers as patriotic fighters trying to evict an invader, and see them for what they really are. Mass murderers with a whole lot of agendas of their own that can have little to do with the US."

Have you forgotten the terrible civil war in the US or the many civil wars in the UK, not to mention the atrocities carried out by Christians during the crusades and hundreds of wars since? It is not the Muslim faith that is on trial here; it is the human race. We are all capable of murder, especially when motivated by religion. Remember the IRA.

Faith on trial

John, I would disagree and I would think the world has come quite a distance since the Crusades and the various civil wars, though certain Christian people in the Balkans still seem to be a bit slow off the mark when it comes to respecting other faiths and ethnic populations in their midst. But by and large the western Christian world is not into deliberate mass murder these days.

Adherence to the Muslim faith in Muslim countries is a vital part of the spiritual life of its followers, ie by millions of people in those countries. The suicide bombers exalt the name of their God, Allah as they carry out their mass murder. If that is not doing it in the name of Islam, then I don't know what is. Their faith is what binds them first and foremost. It is always through their faith that they seek to justify their actions, such as beheading of captives and bombing of markets.  Yet all they really do is bring discredit to that faith.

I say it again. The left cannot keep excusing the mass murder of Iraqis by Iraqis in the way it does. It may not do it directly, but rather by default in its overwhelming desire to be faithful to the anti US paradigm, thus largely ignoring the true reality on the ground in Iraq today.

I note 55% of Iraqis now say their lives are better than under Saddam, (something that the left ignores)  and I doubt you would find many Iraqis that would wish him back. The problem the population faces is not the US, it is those amongst its own who seek to indiscrimanently murder in busy markets. 

To be accidentally killed by a US soldier fighting those bent on mass murder is one thing. To be murdered by your neighbour is quite another.

BTW I note the Iraqi death toll overall is now being quoted as being far far less than the left would have us believe. And even it is what they say, the greater number were killed by their own countrymen. As I said, no excuse whatsoever.  

And just in case you think otherwise I did not support the invasion of Iraq. Some of us are capable of looking at the complexties of the ME situation from more than one perspective and are not bound by any anti US or pro COW paradigm.

Now talking of religion it was wonderful to see so many filling the churches this Easter. Who said God was dead in this country?

Two points

Jenny, you would be aware of my belief in ascertaining the psychology of suicide bombers as a step in the direction of nullifying them. If all I have read so far on the subject is true, religious belief is only a rationale for the act. As I understand it there is nothing in the Islamic faith that either condones or promotes such acts. (I’ve never read the Koran and have no intention of doing so any more than the Bible.)

 

“God is not dead”. This reminded me of a very humanistic and whimsical cartoon, now long gone with the death of it’s creator, Walt Kelly, (well worth a visit for those unfamiliar). It was called “Pogo”, famous for the line “We have met the enemy and he is us.” That struck me at the time but so did another aphorism; “God is not dead, he is merely unemployed”.

You Are Still Weaving

I don't get the connections, Eliot: Personally I don't recall any news stories about the death of Stuart Cameron, which doesn't mean there weren’t, but that in itself doesn't justify an invasion. What the deaths of people like Rachel Corrie arguably by a 'shredding machine', a bull dozer-would that justify the invasion of Israel? Not in this case because it's a firm ally of the US but at another time it would be used as propaganda.

As to Habib – no connection to Iraq – his incarceration at Gitmo was illegal and as everyone there seems to have been ill-treated or tortured before they got there I don't see why he would have avoided it. But how would you prove that in a court? Virtually impossible as you and Piers Ackermann well know.

Judges don't always get it right do they? That's why they have appeals courts where I have had two cases overturned. But certainly not a libel case – the most horrendously expensive of all legal matters in the first instance and I've won one in the UK but only because I was mistaken for someone else by the charming News Of The World who caved in on day one and coughed up expenses and damages – in those days enough to buy a new little mini car. If it had gone beyond that as they hoped, I would have had to bail out.

But you seem to be arguing that the invasion of Iraq was the correct thing and picking up a few small points to justify it – like those in your posts. If so they occur everywhere and the Americans do it every day. They help brutal South American right wing dictators remove democratically elected governments for business reasons (it's never really ideology despite their claims) and if that's your way of thinking no-one can change that – but others think differently.

But on a day when 54 more Iraqis are killed, the US Baghdad embassy is attacked, and the US toll has nearly reached 4000 – for the Bush and his team to be claiming Iraq is now a shining light of democracy is lurching into the realms of fantasy. It isn't going to get better either. I have a feeling this is the one time the US isn't going to get its hands on the spoils – ie, oil.

Omissions

Eliot: "Can anyone recall so much as a word of protest back here in Australia ..."

Now you mention it, I don't recall at the time any protest from any quarter, including the then-Labor government.

And again, when the former prime minister was setting out his case for the 2003 invasion, there was no mention of the killing of an Aussie. Human shredding machines, yes. Assassinated aid workers, no.

Perhaps Mr Howard felt that the case pertaining to Cameron wasn't as strong as the one about the shredders. I guess, now that the shredders haven't turned up, Mr Howard's case for war is vindicated by these revelations about the Cameron slaying.

Not as strong a case?

Perhaps Mr Howard felt that the case pertaining to Cameron wasn't as strong as the one about the shredders.

Nicely put that.

The first thing one notes about the linked article is the headline: Saddam 'had Aussie aid worker killed'. The presence of inverted commas is the editor's way of saying "it is alleged" or "it has been claimed". And, indeed, that is what the article amounts to.

Perhaps what is more illuminating is Mr.Indyk's comment:

Mr Indyk, who was born in Britain but attended school and university in Australia, was unaware of the letter or the plot until contacted by The Weekend Australian on Friday. Shown a copy, he said the letter was written on the day he left Israel as ambassador, adding: "If they wanted to bump me off, they were a bit slow."

Bit slow by half. Given the "millions" of  - apparently incriminating - documents the US holds, they seem positively tardy in releasing what must be reams of material supporting their, as yet, unproven premises and justification for invasion.

Father Park

Those pesky eye-witnesses

Michael de Angelos: "No-one is under the impression Saddam was an angel (although those human shredding machines are yet to turn up) and he certainly had people murdered and wasn't a person to cross - ever."

He certainly was a handful, wasn't he? And tough as an old boot. Take this, for example:

"Saddam Hussein said he was not afraid to die and aggressively took on the court trying him, bullying a witness who described the horrors of his rule, including a meat grinder for human flesh."

Of course, you cannot believe everything 'eye-witnesses' say.

For example:

"I am satisfied that Mr Habib's claims that he was seriously mistreated in the place of detention in Islamabad cannot be accepted," Justice McClellan told the court.

"I can only conclude that this evidence was given in order to enhance his forensic position in the present litigation.

"I have reflected at length on his evidence and and have ultimately concluded that I cannot accept the allegations of mistreatment in the detail which he gave the evidence in this court."

Well, I guess we can believe some eye-witness accounts.

Just getting back to Stuart Cameron's murder again...

"In one letter, Iraqi intelligence boasts about its performance after killing Mr Cameron, a former Australian army major and father of two, and other aid workers. At the same time, however, Saddam's regime was publicly expressing outrage and blaming Mr Cameron's death on Kurds."

Can anyone recall so much as a word of protest back here in Australia over this rather bland and implausible account of the aid workers' deaths by rascally old Saddam? 

Yes Eliot

No-one is under the impression Saddam was an angel (although those human shredding machines are yet to turn up) and he certainly had people murdered and wasn't a person to cross - ever.

Another good reason for the British, the USA and certain European countries not to continually arm him while piously complaining about his record.

But even if he did have an Aussie murdered, that doesn't explain why a sovereign nation should have invaded and hundreds and thousands of its innocent citizens be killed, or 2 million displaced, its infrastructure destroyed and its assets purloined by its invaders.

It draws curious comparisons as well. You knock Bob Brown for drawing attention to China which has an equally appalling record whilst Australia does business deals with it, or Indonesia which is still only has a surface human rights record as demonstrated in Timor(even worse, we hand our kids over to them), Burma etc.

Care Australia worker murdered on Saddam's orders.

Michael de Angelos: "Everything these blokes say is for home consumption."

Well, they're going to have a fine old time with this, then...

It's been revealed that Saddam Hussein's regime had an Australian aid worker killed as part of a state-sponsored terror program.

The Weekend Australian says top-secret Iraqi documents confirm for the first time that Care Australia worker Stuart Cameron was shot in Iraq in 1993 as part of a government campaign against foreign aid workers helping Kurds in the country's north.

It says a plan to "eliminate" the former US ambassador to Israel, Australian-educated Martin Indyk, was considered as part of the terror program.

Makes an interesting counterpoint to the guff coming from certain 'Human Shields'.

Will try

Will try Jacob, and as I'm on a home office and garage re-arranging (nightmare) exercise it should turn up. It's no more than Howard actually said in office. I've always said that that is another enquiry that should have been held – why did our intelligence services supply us with false information? It can only mean several things – our allies lie to us, the PM lied, or services like ASIO lied. We need to know the truth if we are to have faith in them.

Kathy Farrelly, possibly you are correct about Kim Beazley. Certainly NSW premier Bob Carr was gung ho about invading Iraq and then turned against it when it went pie-eyed – but that's just pure Carr.

It's impossible to draw that conclusion about Kevin Rudd and impossible to draw conclusion about whether his "sorry", petrol prices, grocery prices, could be affected in such a short time. That sounds exactly like the questions from the Liberals in Question Time and for anyone to believe that any change could happen within four months must be expecting miracle.

Nor can Nu Labour and Tony Blair in the UK be compared in any way with the ALP. They have far more in common with Margaret Thatcher (Blair’s political hero) but are indeed, far more extreme. Everything Blair claimed he would do if elected – immediately cease the sell-off of state assets, end the incredible government sleaze – as in British corporations supplying Iraq and Iran with the weapons to attack each other and acting with mock horror – he immediately abandoned and stepped up. Blair has sold off everything not nailed down in the UK at rock bottom prices, hired in million dollar consultants, and the sold off assets are now propped up with government subsidies.

In fact, he made Howard look positively left wing and like, Bush and Cheney, still believes in a messianic mission in Iraq.

You say potato I say potarto! Still a spud though!

Anyone who thinks that we would not have become involved in the Iraq war had Labor been in power at the time is delusional.

Bomber Beazley would have responded to the strong alliance we have with America  in the same way as Howard did! As Blair did!

Liberal, Labor. Nothing much to differentiate between the two. Really! There isn't.

Still isn't, with the lip smackin', paper shuffling, podgy little dudd either.

What difference has "sorry " made to those poor unfortunate abused Aboriginal children's lives? None!

He certainly sucked everyone in there didn't he? The Rudd government has made it plain that there will be no compensation! Comprendez?

And don't get me started on the promised lower petrol and grocery prices promised by Rudd and his merry men. (I'm including Gillard here, she has more balls than Swan will ever have!)

Request

"I still have that carefully prepared leaflet sent and signed by John Howard..."

For those like me who were out of the loop, Michael, are you able to scan or transcribe that historical document, perchance for publication here on Webdiary?

I'm a nostalgia buff.

Living In A Dreamworld

Everything these blokes say is for home consumption. Just as Dick Cheney announced Iraq had been a major success and a bomb killed 30 in a market the same day, John McCain helicoptered into a market last year clad in bullet-proof vest surrounded by a 100 strong body guard for a "walk-about" saying, "see – no problems !!"

The very next a bomb went off in the very same market killing dozens.

But throughout the USA millions of Americans really do believe that Saddam and Osama are one and the same and flew those planes into the World Trade Centre or were both involved in the plot. After all – they’re both from the Middle East so what's the difference?

Robert Fisk tells of speaking tours to promote his book Great War for Civilisation throughout middle American and women rushing up after in tears and saying "but how can we protect ourselves – they're coming after us to kill us !" They really do genuinely believe all this rubbish and that their kids are over their fighting to save them from hoards of Afghans or Iraqis descending upon them.

But yes – politicians sickeningly exploit it merely for their own ends. And yes – I still have that carefully prepared leaflet sent and signed by John Howard to electors in Bennelong detailing in exact numbers the WMDs in Iraq and also giving a promise that he would never join an invasion for the sakes of regime change – something Lord Downer has forgotten recently.

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