| Webdiary - Independent, Ethical, Accountable and Transparent | ||||||||
|
||||||||
|
||||||||
What if ...? Solving the Iran stand-offby Craig Rowley I have been mulling over a question or two. Make that a whole series of questions. They are '"What if ..." questions. They are not messy and futile backward looking "What if ..." questions of the "toothpaste back into the tube" type. They are future focused, solution focused questions that ask what if we could do something, what if we did this or something like it or something else. What if we could work through a problem together? The Iranian regime has a nuclear program. It includes several research sites, a uranium mine, a nuclear reactor, and uranium processing facilities that include a uranium enrichment plant. Iran claims it is using the technology for peaceful purposes. The United States, however, makes the allegation that the program is part of a drive to develop nuclear weapons. A nuclear program for peaceful purposes, even one involving the enrichment of uranium, is allowed under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), whilst a nuclear weapons development program is not. And therein lies the nub of the problem. In the last weeks of last year the UN Security Council approved economic sanctions on Iran. If Tehran fails to comply with resolution 1737 by the end of a 60-day deadline that the UN imposed, the Security Council will consider new measures. What if the Iranian regime fails to comply? In a few weeks time the 35 members of the Board of Governors of the United Nation's nuclear monitoring body, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), will meet in Vienna and review the reports compiled by their inspection teams. They need to decide whether Iran has taken the steps required by their resolution GOV/2006/14, steps "which are essential to build confidence in the exclusively peaceful purpose of its nuclear programme." The IAEA will then make its report to the UN Security Council on Iran’s nuclear activities. What if the IAEA reports that Iran failed to comply with their resolution and thereby Security Council resolution 1737? What then? What is the next move for the Security Council? Coercive diplomacy seems to have been the strategy so far. That was reflected in the first Security Council resolution on Iran in response to its nuclear programme. In June 2006, acting under Article 40 of Chapter VII of the United Nations in order to make mandatory the IAEA requirement that Iran suspend its uranium enrichment activities, the Security Council issued resolution 1696 threatening Iran with economic sanctions in case of non-compliance. Resolution 1696 avoided any implication that use of force may be warranted. Exercise of that option, the use of force, was premature. Resolution 1737 did not include a clear statement that use of force would be warranted in case of non-compliance. With Resolution 1737 the Security Council affirmed only that it shall review Iran’s actions in the light of the IAEA’s report and:
The Security Council could continue with the current sanctions and set a new deadline with an explicit threat attached. What if it does so? What is likely to happen after that? The Security Council could authorise additional and more punitive sanctions. What if it did this? What is likely to happen in this scenario? And though unlikely at this stage, the Security Council could ultimately authorise action more punitive, more violent, than the use of sanctions. What if it does? As we enter dialogue and together consider these questions, and in all likelihood the assumptions on which each of us base our answers to these questions, I hope we can look to the possibility of a positive outcome. As we’ve been discussing the issues in Ceasefire and I’ve been keeping myself informed, learning what I can about the issues raised and considering everything constructive that I’ve come across during that time, I chanced upon some old Persian wisdom: “Epigrams succeed where epics fail.” So what if we keep this in mind: People make peace. What if a way could be found, with the help of any people who want to find a way, a way without war, a firm and fair way to have Iran take those steps needed for it to be taken off America's state-sponsors-of-terrorism list without anyone being wiped of any map? What if we considered what Albert Einstein said about the menace of mass destruction?
- Albert Einstein, 'The Menace of Mass Destruction', in Out of My Later Years. What if we did compare our situation to one of a menacing epidemic? What if conscientious and expert, intelligent, objective and humane thinking persons were brought together to work out an intelligent plan to solve this problem? I’ve been mulling over these questions. Most of all I’ve have in mind a couple prompted by a quote by John Ralston Saul that Margo Kingston used to open the final chapter of Not Happy, John! That quote is: “If we believe in democracy you have to believe in the power of the citizen – there is no such thing as abstract democracy.” And the questions I mostly think about now are these: What if we, as the citizens of free democracies and the peoples seeking a democratic future, believed in our power? What if we exercised our real power, did not unthinkingly leave these problems entirely to the powers that be, and could work through our problems together?
[ category: ]
|
||||||||
|
||||||||
|
||||||||
We must abolish all nuclear weapons.
While members of the UN Security Council are in violation of the NPT what hope do we have of preventing the spread of nuclear weapons?
Australia has not gone down the nuclear path. We need to put as much pressure as possible on all members of the UN to comply with the NPT.
"What, me worry?"
Still not getting with the program: Putin on Iran.
The Caspian summit.
Juan Cole - The Iran hawks.
The power of faith - to create a disaster. Tom Engelhardt presents Mark Danner - The Moment Has Come to Get Rid of Saddam.
"Reality? Try our version."
Conn Hallinan on casualties
On Turkey entering Iraq.
All that blood and slaughter and some salivating at the prospect of a bigger and "better" adventure ... So what do you think about the tax cuts?
Interested in avoiding World War III?
We've got leaders in the US and Australia who have destroyed Iraq. Now they are threatening to destroy Iran. If we really are interested in avoiding World War III we must get rid of Bush and Howard.
Other places ...
An interview with Gabriel Kolko on the US/Iran issue.
Putin puts out a warning.
Muhammad Sahimi - Norman Podhoretz's War Prayer.
Paul Craig Roberts on goose and gander genocide resolution.
Or a titfer .. if the cap fits ...
12 former US army captains on getting out.
Pepe Escobar - It's the resistance, stupid.
Norman Solomon on Blackwater as a distraction.
James Madison revisited.
The Israeli right has a peace plan ....
Meanwhile, out in the lobby ...
An interview with M & W.
Glenn Greenwald on coddled tough guys.
Plenty to read for those not preoccupied with pimples and posteriors.
Lies and liars, blood and slaughter and have it on the rocks
Scott Ritter - No Legitimate Justification for War with Iran.
Not that questions of legitimacy concern them. As to justifications, well, they can always make stuff up. They have form. Advice - be careful about taking the word of known liars at face value.
Gary Leupp - Response to an Angry Marine.
More talking Turkey:
Khody Akhavi.
From DemocracyNow!.
Also from DemocracyNow!, an interview with Dahr Jamail.
US/Iraq negotiate Blackwater expulsion.
Next for the US expulsion?
On private contractors - The LA Times asks: What is their status?
Expelled and off to Gitmo?
Dave Lindorff - The slaughter of the Innocents.
A lament.
More concerning known liars - Justin Raimondo on The Dar El Zor Hoax.
Read on.
And how has the Iraq war impacted on the GWOT?
Back in the land of Oz our chief warmonger offers tax cuts as the frenzy begins over what colour deckchairs are preferred and how they should be arranged. Iceberg? What iceberg?
Syria's president fesses up Israeli strike hit military target
Syria's hereditary life president has admitted the object of the recent Israeli air strike was indeed a military target. The two countries have been at war for 30 years.
"In his only public comment on the raid, Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, acknowledged this month that Israeli jets dropped bombs on a building that he said was “related to the military” but which he insisted was “not used."
Despite vehement denials from the usual cast of lickspittles, it turns out the target was indeed a North Korean designed nuclear plant in the early stages of construction. And as President Assad II admits, it was a military site.
"Nuclear experts say that North Korea’s main reactor, while small by international standards, is big enough to produce roughly one bomb’s worth of plutonium a year."
The irony.
John Pratt says:
In my humble opinion, the leaders of political movements or nations that support regime change or destruction of a nation by illegal invasion, or any other violent means, should be denounced.
So, would that apply to Hamas and the current regimes in Iran and Syria, say? Speaking of genocide, as we were?
Talking Turkey, go home and lots more in store.
Turkish general warns US over Armenian genocide resolution.
And Mushroom Cloud urges Turkey to show restraint over Iraq.
Oh, the irony.
Yankees go home.
Uri Avnery - The Mother of all Pretexts.
Chris Floyd - War Without End.
Greed, arrogance and hubris ... how much blood? How long will urgent challenges go largely unmet?
Terrorism or a war not sanctioned by the UN is illegal.
Eliot, you ask: "So, what, then John is your opinion of a political movement that sets among its principal objectives the destruction of a member state of the United Nations?
Or of the regimes which fund its activities, support it politically in international forums and call for the destruction of a UN member state?
Would you say they and their apologists should be denounced unequivocally?"
In my humble opinion, the leaders of political movements or nations that support regime change or destruction of a nation by illegal invasion, or any other violent means, should be denounced. The leaders of such organisations or nations should be brought before the International Criminal Courts and charged with terrorism or murder. No nation should invade another nation without sanction from the United Nations.
Destroying 'Unjustified' neighbour states
John Pratt says:
"Eliot, I don't know where you get the idea I support any political regime. I support the United Nations, and hope that one day the place to resolve international disputes will be the UN not the battlefield."
So, what, then John is your opinion of a political movement that sets among its principal objectives the destruction of a member state of the United Nations?
Or of the regimes which fund its activities, support it politically in international forums and call for the destruction of a UN member state?
Would you say they and their apologists should be denounced unequivocally?
If you're looking for historical precedents for this sort of thing, how about the behaviour of those former League of Nations member states which only a few decades ago called for, and acted in order to facilitate the destruction of fellow League member states?
A big issue at the time was ceaseless uncompromising demands of entitlement to alienated 'historical homelands'.
For example, the Sudetanland, which was an ethnic enclave within the otherwise predominantly Slavic-speaking republic of Czechoslovakia?
Or Poland, which was 'stolen' from Russia and anyway had 'no right to exist' according to one viewpoint at the time?
Lessons, pieces and empires.
Gordon Prather - Lessons Learned - Or Not.
A reminder:
But then Iran got rod of the Shah ...
An interview with P W Singer - Privatizing Terror, Outsourcing Diplomacy.
Stephen Zunes on partitioning Iraq.
A review of James Petras' Rulers and Ruled in the US Empire.
Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya - Challenging America's Ambitions in Eurasia.
Down On The Corner, Out In The Street
Angela Ryan
Given I do not hold a belief in nationality; certainly not in the current idea of nation's, there is certainly not anything about this particular subject that should make you feel a personal apology is necessary. How others feel about this matter is something you would have to ask them.
This will always be the problem with making hasty generalisations, based on personal traits, such as nationality. There will always be the exception to the rule - not even taking in to consideration; the rule in this case, is based upon a slippery slope argument.
My perception is that both your perception, and statement, on this issue are highly doubtful. I do not currently have any data to share about this subject: and I don't feel there is a need for me to find any. My own perception is though, that a racist or sexist could be found on every busy American street. Equally a racist or sexist could be found on every busy street in the world. It is your role to prove that Americans are an exception (as to warrant stand alone post) to this generally accepted rule. That is of course if you are interested in making your perception anything more than a personal perception being shared.
Anyhow; my post had more to do with easily stated, and offensive, flimsy evidence based generalisations, more than anything else. The data I supplied was in fact a chart grading the world's top 500 Universities. This was for the aid of another poster who had made one particular claim (amongst others) about all Americans standard of education. Obviously the chart proves that particular generalisation to be completely baseless. As such the generalisation if stated again without evidence contradicting that chart (rebuttal) would no longer be a basic generalisation: it would be a race orientated slur.
Weekend reading.
On incompetence - Gen. Sanchez takes aim at political leadership.
No revelation to many.
US/Russia missile defence talks fail.
Religion and foreign policy.
Pepe Escobar - General Petraeus in his labyrinth.
Another goose and gander piece.
Glenn Greenwald on what's left.
Part 2 Deregulation: Global war on Labor of Henry C K Liu - Super Capitalism, Super Imperialism.
And now for a bit of fun:
What if the US discovers diplomacy?
And on Al Gore sharing the Nobel Peace Prize.
Enjoy the reading, enjoy the weekend.
to commit genocide?
John Pratt says:
Eliot Ramsey, yes, I believe when nations get into border disputes, the proper place to determine borders, is the United Nations.
Then is it appropriate in your view to support a political movement which calls for the 'obliteration' of a UN member state, or to call for deliberate extermination of a UN member state's people according to their religious and cultural identity?
You brought up the U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee resolution acknowledging the historical reality of the Armenian Holocaust and I refered you to Raphael Lemkin who drafted the UN resolution on Genocide.
His actually coined the term 'genocide' in response to the Armenian Holocaust.
Would it be morally credible for anyone supporting the UN, and calling on its member states to abide by UN resolutions, to then support either a regime or a political movement openly expressing its intention to 'obliterate' a UN member state or to commit genocide?
Dispute resolution in United Nations not on the battlefield.
Direct appeal?
Joe Conason looks at Wes Clark's new memoir ... and reminds us of a document that was waved at Clark all those years ago:
A change in a main contender?
The question has been posed - Will the military say to to an Iran attack? Why not a direct appeal?
Some examples of military objections:
One can hope they succeed and nail the lid of the box down very firmly.
More on Turkey and the Kurds:
The Independent.
The Asia Times.
Has the Commander been talking about bringing stability to the region? Bushspeak from a planet far, far from reality.
Margo, I'll keep putting material up for consideration. And I note your Howardspeak elsewhere. I agree with your analysis. As to Bushspeak - we can but try to guess what the Commander has merged with.
With friends like these ...
Achieving the impossible?
Adding to the strain.
On the matter of the genocide - some coverage from the period. Once helped each other out, but now ...
William S Lind - The Iraq Mirage.
Blackwater to be sued - DemocracyNow! covers the issue and more.
Tom Engelhardt presents Nick Turse Slum Wars - a long future of warfare ahead.
Henry C K Liu - Super Capitalism, Super Imperialism, Part 1: A Structural Link.
Part 2 when available.
Margo: Thanks Bob!
Obliterate
"Alan Curran, I can't see where I have changed my mind. I have called for the withdrawal of Australian Forces from the Middle East and for Israel to accept the borders as determined by the United Nations."
Should Hamas and Iran accept the borders for Israel as determined by the United Nations?
The United Nations is the proper place to determine borders.
No longer can we tolerate the demands of Israel.
But it's okay to tolerate the demands of Hamas?
These, according to the Hamas Charter, include the "obliteration" of Israel and a call to muslims to kill jews wherever they find them (Article 7)?
Now, what was it you were saying about 'genocide', John?
The killing fields. Charity starts at home
In fact, it was the Armenian killings which resulted in the word 'genocide' being coined in the first place.
Law professor Raphael Lemkin, who coined the term "genocide" in 1943.
Forty of the US States have adopted formal resolutions acknowledging the Armenian Genocide as a bona fide historical event.
I agree completely that every reasonable effort should be made to document the Armenian genocide and educated the world about it, and also to pressure the Turkish government into acknowledging it.
I'm not so sure that that's an appropriate role for the US Congress, however, though it should be noted that it was the American government of Woodrow Wilson's time which did much to bring the Armenian genocide to the attention of the world.
The first film about the Armenian Genocide appeared in 1919, a Hollywood production entitled Ravished Armenia.
Several eyewitness accounts of the events were published, notably those of Swedish missionary Alma Johansson and U.S. Ambassador Henry Morgenthau, Sr.
In any case, it is worth noting that Turkey is seeking entry to the EU.
Is there any move on the part of the EU to demand that Turkey acknowledge the Armenian genocide before gaining admission as a EU member?
Should Congress also require Australia to acknowledge the systematic murder of tens of thousands of Aborigines as genocide?
Should the Turkish parliament pass a resolution condemning Australian, Canadian and American policy regarding the massacre of our Indigenous population?
Also, should Cuba formally acknowledge the genocide of the Carib and Tainos peoples of that country?
Anyone got a view?
"It was the best of times ..."
To paraphrase - "It was the end of times."
Read on and ponder the question "Are they crazy enough?"
Meanwhile, Putin's view on Iran's nuclear program.
Might make sense to those not in a rush to meet their Maker.
Jimmy Carter and US torture - and a question that by now surely does not need to be asked. Transcript and short video.
Here's the question:
"Self-defining". Not presidential to say "He's lying his tits off."
Col. Douglas MacGregor (Ret.) - Circling the Wagons.
Glenn Greenwald has a piece on those who claim "We are winning".
Stephen Zunes on the fifth anniversary of the Iraq war resolution.
Enough to get one down. So a change of pace - Al Gore is favourite for the Nobel Peace Prize. There is no truth in the rumour that the Commander has threatened to bomb Stockholm of they don't give it to him instead.
World's richest country???
Here is a list of the 10 richest countries in the world per capita, from Nationmaster.com. You can see that the USA comes in at no. 7, not no. 1.
Sometimes the truth is more important than relationships.
If the killing of over a million, men, women and children is not genocide I don't know what is. Would we deny the Jewish genocide ,if it was to effect our relationship with Germany?
EVERYONE wants to see
As the wars in the Middle East continue to kill and maim it is time for the West to support the peace process with vigour. No longer can we tolerate the demands of Israel. Too many people have suffered already we must resolve this issue.
Caught in the crossfire.
While the Taliban gets support from Pakistan and Iran, we cannot win the wars in Iraq or Afghanistan. The longer we have troops in the danger zones, we will likely suffer more casualties, and we risk war with Iran and Pakistan. It is time we had a serious rethink of our Middle East policies, it may be wiser to withdraw and let the forces in the Middle East resolve the issues in their own way.
Caught in the crossfire
John Pratt, It seems as though it has taken you just over an hour to change your mind. First you say
Then you say
You would make a great Labor Foreign Minister, as it looks as though McClelland has lost the job you could apply as a star recruit. Just let Israel solve the problem in their own way, as you have seen it is not possible to talk to the Palestinians. As we have seen they cannot even talk amongst themselves, especially with sound of their suicide bombs ringing in their ears. I suggest you worry about the big issues that will face this country should Rudd win the next election. How are you going to explain to your grandchildren that there are no jobs for them, unless they are a Union Official. As their house is repossesed because of the huge jump in interest rates, which will happen under Rudd, you could explain to them "yes but we got rid of Howard so that you could have these things".
Alan Curran, I can't see
Alan Curran, I can't see where I have changed my mind. I have called for the withdrawal of Australian Forces from the Middle East and for Israel to accept the borders as determined by the United Nations. Seems logical to me. I am not sure why we take sides in these very complex issues.
Speaking of my grandchildren, I am not sure how I would be able to explain to them, that I sat on my butt and let Howard and his mates ignore the effects of climate change. The future is under more threat from climate change and international conflicts than it is from unions, can you imagine the world if there had been no unions? I am trying to keep housing affordability possible for my grandchildren. The first step is to get rid of the Howard Government.
Can't see
A worthy piece.
Andrew, it is good to see you drop by and with such a worthy piece to offer. The great game, the world as a chess board ... but when a main player seems to have trouble telling one piece from another and the game keeps changing and empires come and go. New players enter the game and there are new approaches yet some hold tightly to the old - the final paragraph of the article captures this so well.
"The sheer venality...", yes indeed. And was that spoof I linked that far wrong? There's a worrying mentality at work and there is a need for new approaches to meet the challenges we face.
Time's a wasting.
Wow, she might be a Muslim Female
...and your points are?
Bob, I just read an excellent article in Le Monde Diplomatique arguing that the Iraq adventure was a step too far in the great game that the US (and Britain to a far lesser extent) have been playing for the past 60 years. I've always felt that the sheer venality of the Bush/Cheney cabal would be their undoing and it seems that some fairly important players are now worried about the same thing.
From the opening:
building along the sidelines
Hi Eliot, didn't you read the article you linked? Irrefutable evidence was the direct quote from that. Wasn't that the argument you were supporting by linking it?
I sure hope you are right about the attack upon Iran. Did you correctly predict the Iraq attack by the US?
After full analysis at the time suggesting/showing clearly that the peace would be a problem, occupation would be a disaster, the Sunni influence would be replaced by Shhite/Iran , the risk of destabilisation of the region would be increased, massive civilian suffering as a result, uncertain neighbour and ally responses, increase of Sunni alqaida terrorism, Kurdish region unrest with issues in Turkey and Syria and Iran, direct risk to Israel ...and oil prices. What were they before the Iraq invasion, just remind me? Worry that the price might reach $25 a barrel?
I just didn't think such would make it worth it in the total equation, but then, we have that now to factor into the Iran attack equation. That what is good for the US people or the region is not necessarily what will happen.
As always with any crime - who benefits, who had opportunity, who had means? In such one has to also add who pays the cost? As it is the US people financially and local Iraqi people there is not much problem for the MIC etal.
And as Andrew has linked that excellent article, as so often the non US-sphere are, there has been no accounting for the Iraq invasion,the illegality of it, the deception and deliberate fraud and the conspiracy for it. All are major crimes. Add to this the torture scandal and use of excessive force /inhumane weapons which guarantees to make the mission of peaceful subjugation impossible, one wonders what the real aim is, as does Putin.
His press conferences are not well reported in our "disciplined media"- see
http://www.president.kremlin.ru/eng/speeches/2007/09/14/1801_type82917type84779_144106.shtml
85 percent proof
When have I ever purported to offer “irrefutable evidence" of anything?
It's not like I'm pretending to be 85 per cent certain, even. Is it?
Margo: Eliot, you're forgetting your colons again.
Fools rush in
No.
This is interesting though....
"Last week, Turkish officials traveled to Damascus to present the Syrian government with the Israeli dossier on what was believed to be a Syrian nuclear program, according to a Middle East security analyst in Washington. The analyst said that Syrian officials vigorously denied the intelligence and said that what the Israelis hit was a storage depot for strategic missiles."
A perfectly legitimate target given the two countries have been at war for over thirty years.
The American Mosque
"On that chart people may have noticed the number one University world-wide is Harvard. Yep, you guessed it the Harvard President is female."
She's not a Muslim by any chance, is she? I mean, there's a greater chance than ever that she is:
The Society Of Hate
Eliot Ramsey, Ah yes, gross generalizations...........
On that chart people may have noticed the number one University world-wide is Harvard. Yep, you guessed it the Harvard President is female.
Methodology
And come to think of it, Paul, another thing the pan-German, ultra-right was prone to do was 'explain' contemporary events with reference to long lists of historical 'wrongs' done to them going back decades and centuries.
These formed a vast repertory of paranoid 'hurts' which were held in reserve and trundled out when needed to justify whichever current outrage they were planning.
Root causes and a mind set.
Scott Ritter has a good article on the root causes of friction between the US and Iran.
Yet more members of the crazy gang.
Jason Miller on the mind set of Bush supporters.
Paul W Schroeder on ending the Iraq war.
That might not suit some, including those who seem intent on starting another war.
The Oliver North syndrome
Paul Morrella, hi.
The political significance of hysterical ethnic generalisations continually directed at a single people are best understood in terms of an observation made by a prominent mid-century statesman, as follows:
Trevor Kerr asks:
Seeing as the largest ex-pat Persian population in the world is in Los Angeles, they'd probably know almost as soon as, if not sooner than, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad himself.
That was the real significane of Irangate
The Dumb American
Angela Ryan
You really gotta to love a comment such as this. Nearly as good as the fella calling all American's; obese, dumb, slothful idiots. http://www.arwu.org/rank/2005/ARWU2005_Top100.htm.
apologise Paul
Hi Paul, I humbly apologise.
Naturally persons like you and Jay and Mike would be particularly offended by my comment but I had not meant it personally but more as a collective tendency.
I should have carefully preambled such but am busy with deadlines and holidays so it came out how I did not mean it to.You are no more racist and sexist and homophobic than Aussies.
Perhaps I am wrong in my statement , it was merely a perception. Might you have some wonderful data to prove Americans are not racist, sexist and anti gay generally I would appreciate it. For the record I think most societies are tribal in nature and unite when under threat. Thus in times of relaxing plenty there is little to stop trust developing and skin colour or religion to become unimportant in issues of support, loyalty and friendship. But I suspect in the coming economic crash and wars without end these are not the times. Unless we get that hurricane I mentioned a while ago.
It's good to share knowledge, isn't it?
Yes, of course.
Here's an item reported by UPI quoting Professor Seth G. Jones, an adjunct professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University.
His observations relate to signs that Iran may have shipped some arms and other materials to the Taliban via the Quds Force.
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is a former member of, and is closely politically allied to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps resulting in them becoming one of the most powerful political forces inside Iran.
Now, do you have any evidence of an 85 per cent probability of an Israeli or US "attack" on Iran within the next six months? Or is it just a hunch?
And what scale or form would the attack take, do you think?
on Crystal balls, propaganda to wage war on Iran,and warwhores
Eliot’s “irrefutable evidence “ (now where have i heard that from before?) that Iran government is supplying weaponry to Taliban.
Firstly Eliot, do you have a prediction as to whether Iran will be attacked? I have given you mine and reasons for other things you have discussed and will further add a bit more about our discussions but I do notice that you have not given a prediction.
Do you not wish to? Perfectly fine. All the same I would be interested as I do respect your opinion as a well read and educated person. The world is full of many different ideas of how the world should be and should be run and it is through civilized discussion that such ideas can be shared and developed. You do not have to agree with me, nor I with your persuasion.
As to the statements you made about the alleged IED event that resulted in the horrible killing and wounding of two Aussies 6km out returning from “reconnaissance” in an unstable area, to a rather strange surreal place in Afghanistan, a former Taliban centre, a town of 10000, 2000 of whom are apparently Arabs.
You will notice there is presently a major offensive in Afghanistan on the Pakistan/Afghanistan border due to a Taliban – Pakistan peace negotiated earlier being wrecked. There are also repeated sorties and bombings right where our lads are, building the rather ridiculous hospital, although it is good for oil workers in the future.
If it was an IED, and even here at this first point there are a number of possibilities, it is reassuring to see the military are not as Propagandist as our leadership in spinning the death of a soldier for their aims to start another war. It would be interesting to know where the ABC reports, the bylines came from, who wrote and authorised them. Are we already on war footing editorial? Truth such an early victim. So sad, RIP ABC credibility, along with the BBC.
Just today in the SMH:
And actually that is exactly the kind of analysis that most come to about the source of armaments the Taliban/druglords are using. Here is an article from June 2007 about a wee (David C: don’t know what happened here Angela – this sentence ended in space).
But in every News radio broadcast about his death that morning and the senior members of our government were already talking of Iranian weaponry and Eliot was sure it was from the Iranian military.
After all, rand corporation Dr Seth Jones said so. Or did he? Is the Rand corporation a good source for reliable unbiased information? Perhaps one would be a little careful in their selection of articles to publish considering the persons on their board/advisory and funding.
Now what did Dr Jones write?
What was his full message? He quotes a small number of persons who claim Iran is supplying weaponry, including Gates, Burns and General Dan McNeil. Admittedly it is a commentary from July 4 so one must not be too hard about sources and following up the comments. However as Eliot has linked this as his evidence, one must see what evidence there is in the commentary. Are the claims proven? Does he himself consider them not only proven but significant? Are there counter claims of credibility?
He claims that on June 14th, Burns and Gates both made the claims, in the following way: ” U. S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said on June 14 that the flow of weapons from Iran to the Taliban has reached such large quantities that it is difficult to believe it is taking place without the Iranian government's knowledge. U. S. Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns went even further, saying that there is "irrefutable evidence" that the shipments were "coming from the government of Iran."
“Irrefutable evidence”. One of those great propaganda lines well used in the Iraq war lies by the government propagandists then. Perhaps that was a clue.
The Huffington post, undependent news until just last week when it changed ownership, ran a rebuttal article that rather crushed Mr Burns’ comments, just two days after them on June 16th.. Did Dr Jones, that esteemed commentator, not see it? Or does he pick and chose his quotes as needed? .
The huffington post article begins:
It continues as it describes the Psychops and propaganda that has continued with compliant meida and commentators help:.
However he also has noticed the change in message as the nuke issue fails.
Yeah, pity about that. Still mistakes printed rea never front page withdrawn are they? In the psychi of the masses. Especially when that psychi is already so full of fertilizer. And people like Eliot just didn’t read all that so his is still in the dark with the players. But this gem of a writer goes on slam dunking the lies about Iran‘s weapons:
But what of the alleged claims of Gates and Gen dan McNeill? Here is the dooosey for the Seth Jones article and clearly one has difficulty with the facts or there was a change in data or spin pressure between June 4th and June 14th. Only ten days and a complete revolution of these two guys’ opinions. Or someone misquoted them.
Yet just 10 days later while all gathered in Paris we have:.
Quite a difference.
Or was it, as the Huffington post article suggests, the influence of the Dick Cheney war cabal? Was that why Burns used such terms?
Actually I think the end of the article has the most amusing interview.
Was there some new evidence that change the analysis or was the spin changed? Are we being lied to again? Perhaps people should consider that carefully and what it means if the Commander of Nato and a non-Cheney stooge like Burns and Gates himself are following the CheneyCabal (?) line.
Here is what the reply was when reporters asked about the new evidence. But WAIT, they were ASKED ABOUT THIS PROOF! Fantastic, now we can all see it……. ENJOY:
Ain’t war spin great? And so easy to debunk, yet why so hard for some here at Webdiary? This single well researched article made the Rand Corporation’s hitboy Seth ‘s article out for what it was, just like the Canada piece, a propaganda warwhore action.
To be fair to Dr Jones, when one CAREFULLY reads his article there is more a skeptical flavor, never actually spoken, about the Iran weapons claims, and one cannot check his data as there appears to be no references - well it was only a commentary, and his analysis is perfectly sound at the end - it sounds to me like a reluctant deed - clearly says:.
“While Iranian support for the Taliban would be disturbing, there is a serious danger of overreaction in the United States. The Taliban receive a negligible amount of support from Iran. Inflating the Iranian role risks the further destabilization of Afghanistan and could jettison a potential avenue for U. S. -Iranian dialogue…” After he quoted Gates et al as stating the opposite and never reconciles this properly.
In fact to be fair to Dr Jones, the emphasis of the article, when one takes out that which is not his area of expertise, is more for the US to seek rapprochement with Iran and that they are not the problem.
“..Iran is a minor player in this broad network of support. The danger with the recent hype of a Taliban-Iranian axis is that U. S. policymakers may neglect pressuring the real sources of Taliban support in Pakistan and the broader Muslim world.
Perhaps more importantly, American officials may overlook a possible area of dialogue with Iran. Iran and the United States worked closely together to create an interim Afghan government after the fall of the Taliban in 2001. Today, Iran and Afghanistan share a number of common interests. They have participated in joint trade, energy, investment, cultural, and scientific projects.
Iran provides significant economic assistance to Afghanistan, and political support to the Hamid Karzai government. The Iranians have also cooperated to crack down on the rising Afghan drug trade by building border posts to catch or deter narcotics smugglers.
A strong Sunni Taliban will never be in Iran's long-term interest. And an Afghanistan that further deteriorates into lawlessness could trigger a range of spill-over effects — from increased narcotics trafficking to terrorism — that would negatively impact all countries in the region, including Iran. ..”
When one reads the whole article and excludes the imposed Hype areas that are not data points, one sees he is actually saying IRAN IS NOT THE PROBLEM.
Thanks for that link Eliot.
Antiwar also has a rebuff of the claims regarding Iran.
As does ABC USA.
There is plenty out there at the moment for obvious reasons. The PR battle for war is being fought. Let us watch who the stooges are, the warwhores. We have a number here in our leadership already.
Blaming Iran for the debacle Iraq and Afghanistan has turned is the current raison d’etre for attacking Iran.
The language used is carefully crafted so as not to alarm the population and bring gout those scary protests again. Terms such as “surgical strikes”, using such propaganda terms to pretend a short sharp conflict rather than the broadly predicted huge mess attacking a fully armed nation like Iran would cause to so many in the region. Watch who uses these terms.
Well, I guess we have Iraq and the conspirators who brought us that to trust in all this don’t we?
RIP Trapper and be damned all who dare use a death for propaganda to wage another war.
Cheers.
And just while we are mentioning Afghanistan, perhaps remembering the US sought international support for the Afghanistan invasion, planned for October, in the June. Facilitated by Iran and India and agreed to by Russia.
How did they predict that one? Maybe we should borrow their crystal ball, seems amazing. I reckon they didn't see everything coming, those fogs just make ya miss things. Imagine all those Madams rubbing their hands.
And We Will Have Peace In Our Time Not
Richard Tonkin
Rather than save governments any such attack would only hasten their demise. Seriously, how popular is the current Iraq war? Another reason is it would seriously damage all economies, and the object of starting a war is winning something from any such war. The chances of that happening in Iran are slime to none, and slime just died on the operating table.
The idea of people talking up such an attack is to put fear into the average voter. Vote for us or your kids will be in a war zone, that sort of thing. The next US election by the way will be fought on economics, economics, and more economics. That is my prediction. If there is a large world-wide 2008 correction the Middle East will be the least of people's concerns eyeing off their funds. The guy or gal strongest on economics, and all that money stuff will be the next President of the United States.
Delivering the Quds
Eliot, I don't want to twist. I'm just getting sick of senior government figures so blatantly twisting defence, intelligence and policing issues to show themselves as electably strong leaders. It denigrates the people doing the work, especially the ones dying.
Well, take Cicero chest thumping over Carthage, for example.
Just on the Persian Empire, though, it is interesting to note that the main suspect for shipments to the Taliban from Iran is the Quds Force, a paramilitary arm of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps.
These would be Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's main boys, no? So, they are players for sure.
iran ? Evidence? Eliot? Opinion?
Hi Eliot, I am still interested in your opinion as before. By the way, you said the following as facts – I was just wondering where that is documented:
Would you have a credible link to these assertions? And Eliot, do you think there will be an attack upon Iran by Israel/US, when if so? Just an opinion is fine. I notice you are well read on the topic usually.
Cheers
Evidence
Angela - I don't think the argument is about supplying verifiable evidence regarding the intentions of some sections in the Iranian establishment.
No, it's much more about deciding whether or not the ADF should be helping to rebuild Afghanistan. There, the issue is how far the Taliban will go to protect its turf.
I do not doubt the possibility that aforesaid Iranians are capable of supplying Taliban, or any other group throughout that part of the world, with tools of the trade. Roadside bombs are very effective. So, it's important to find out how the know-how is being disseminated. If they are being churned out of a thousand tinpot workshops, that's a very different matter to there being a handful of centres dedicated to advancing and promoting the technology.
ADF will be studying, very intently, that latest incident, despite Nelson's parrotting of the Bush playbook. They need to know whether the bomb was, in fact an EFP that was triggered by wire. The importance of the findings will extend to future operations, and even cause some thoughts about how far the bombs can be dispersed for use in the field.
Let's suppose there is a well equipped workshop, EFP Central, beneath about a milk factory somewhere in Iran. The makings are boxed in kits, and now with the instructions translated faithfully from the Irish or English into Arabic, Urdu and Bahasa, as well as Farsi. The transport of crates of a dozen or so kits leave the factory after dark, hidden amongst the bags of milk powder, bound for all points and under the implicit supervision and protection of well-placed units of para-military. Now, if foreign intelligence agents get onto this factory, what will they do with the information? I guess it depends, firstly, on how many units they produce per week, and whether or not this workshop is part of a network. Let's say, for fun, the Kurds are the ones who have this information. Do they pass it on to the Americans, the Israelis, or someone else? Are the Russians and Chinese concerned about the ability of extremist elements in Iran to upset the balance? We may wish the USAF is sent along to liquidate the milk factory with laser-guided missiles and bombs. But how would they know if, in fact, there ever was a workshop making EFPs, after all the evidence has been destroyed?
Getting back to the point, the essence of good workmanship is the good old quality circle. On that basis, I expect the video of the EFP knocking out the ASLAV is being viewed in a few dozen recruiting chat-rooms right now. It's a bloody business, alright. Expect it to move right along, and maybe come closer to home. Success breeds success, as Ayn Rand (or was it Dan Ryan?) used to say.
Nitty Gritty
Angela Ryan says:
"Do you really find an interest in whether I personally predict a US invasion of Iran?"
Yes, I do.
Angela Ryan says: "Currently there is an 85% chance of attack from US/Israel in the next 6 months, and this has slightly fallen after this week's activities."
You seem to be stating, with a certain degree of confidence, a pretty high probability, then. Even adjusting and fine tuning a bit.
What sort of 'attack' are you suggesting?
I mean, take Syria, whose 'sovreignty' was 'breached' recently 'without provocation' by a country it has been at war with for over thirty years.
Something of that order? Commando raid on a weapons research facility? Air attack on a nuclear facility?
Or something bigger? Invasion and occupation? What do you think?
I mean, if you can specify to a percentage and time-frame, obviously you must be in touch with the facts.
Also, recently Iran's President appeared at a military parade with a huge banner saying 'Death to America' and his views on Israel are a matter of public record (despite attempts at erasing them).
Have those sorts of things been factored into your estimate of the 85 per cent probability of an attack? Within six months? Give or take a couple points here and there?
And on what scale?
Let's do the twist
Actually, Richard, if you read the statement Nelson made, he doesn't blame Iran. He says this:
Which is stating the bleeding obvious. There are growing signs that Iran may have shipped some arms and other materials to the Taliban.
However, it should be stated that the Taliban and Tehran haven't had a good relationship, whereas the government in Kabul does have quite a good relationship with Tehran.
Weapons have gone through Iran to Afghanistan, but the connection between Iran and the Taliban is nothing of the order of the relationship between Iran and, say, Hezbolla, which it practically owns.
Playing It Straight
I was quoting Nelson not from written text but from the 10am ABC Radio news. As soon as I find some verification I'll put it up, but I'm sure of what I heard.
Eliot, I don't want to twist. I'm just getting sick of senior government figures so blatantly twisting defence, intelligence and policing issues to show themselves as electably strong leaders. It denigrates the people doing the work, especially the ones dying.
I can foresee this death being used as Aussie vindication for support of the attack on Iran that you and Paul Morella don't think will occur, but without which the governing parties of the US, UK and Australia are unlikely to survive elections. The Wag The Dog script appears to have returned to the autocue.
Games people play.
Paul Morrella, you have accused accused me of being selective with the following:
Yesterday I reposted Mike Lyver's post in its entirety. So your claim in that regard is wrong. I suggest you apply your own standards, as expressed above, to yourself. Perhaps you could better spend your time reading the material I provide.
David, Trevor's second link has this:
And this:
The repeating of unproven allegations is far too common in the MSM. I recently took issue with the ABC over an example in one of its news reports. You might recall the comment from a UK government adviser from a post of mine yesterday:
The attempt to implicate Iran in both Iraq and Afghanistan has been well documented here. The lack of a sense of irony from the main perpetrators has regularly remarked upon.