Webdiary - Founded and Inspired by Margo Kingston

Specialist in Pacific media and journalism and their contexts, Dr Mark Hayes, is a very close Region and Fiji watcher, as well as often a traveller Out There. Back in January, 2006, Mark peered into his tanoa (kava bowl) to help predicted the outcome of the 2006 Fiji election. (WebDiarists would be advised to read Mark's two earlier posts on Fiji before returning to this Redux Edition of "Coup Looming in Coup Coup Land".) Mark's earlier contributions to the Webdiary have been What's Going on in Tonga, which discussed, with first-hand observations, a revolution still underway in Tonga, and the original posting of The Sinking of Tuvalu.

Dr Hayes does a weekly Pacific News Wrap - 'Mo oe mai i le Pasifika (For you, from the Pacific)' - on Mondays for the subscriber-only alert and digest service, The Daily Briefing. Here's the Fiji section of the Wrap from Monday, November 6, 2006, slightly edited and UpDated to early Tuesday, November 7, and compiled while fighting off a raging attack of Deja Vu.

Ni sa Bula Vinaka.

by Dr Mark Hayes

Just when we thought things had calmed down a bit in the Barmy Balmy Isles, the military calls a late Sunday afternoon media conference and throws this grenade into the Tanoa: 'Australian mercenaries sent to Fiji, says army' reports the SMH's Joel Gibson and 'Fiji accuses Aust of breaching sovereignty' reports the ABC's Peter Cave, both in Suva. Mr Cave's AM report on Monday morning added to the story, with a back announce from Tony Eastley citing Australian Defence sources that the arrivals with the significant excess baggage - 400kgs in flight cases! - were Defence Force personnel routinely sent to the Australian High Commission in times of extra tension. Fijilive.com has several stories from late Sunday afternoon's military press conference worth a look too. We await more reports from Fiji about this with anticipation, though Monday's FT and Fiji Sun don't add to the story as reported overnight (above), and it's certain there's another really interesting week ahead in Fiji. (Fans of Australian Fiji Police Commissioner, Andrew 'James Bond' Hughes should download the Monday Fiji Sun's PDF format front page. 'Gin and Fiji Water, shaken not stirred'. Yeah sure.)

RNZI, sourcing the pro-government Fiji Daily Post, reported that the government was investigating "...high profile figures who are alleged to have plotted and colluded with the military during the crisis in recent days...".

The Australian's Michael McKenna in Suva, and Patrick Walters, reported on Tuesday, November 7, that 'Fiji fears entry of our elite soldiers', pointing out that "Fears of a coup rose after Commodore Frank Bainimarama, who narrowly escaped death during the 1987 coup...". No he did not. Commodore Frank narrowly escaped being killed during the deadly military mutiny on Thursday afternoon, November 2, 2000. I was in Suva teaching journalism at USP that awful day.

The mutiny has returned to hurt Fiji again, like hitting an unhealed bruise or peeling back an illhealed scab to see what next oozes out, with the court case starting involving Sitiveni Rabuka who's on serious charges over his alleged involvement in the November, 2000, mutiny. It's significant that the prosecution are bringing back the former Third Infantry Regiment commander, Lieutenant-Colonel Viliame Seruvakula, from Afghanistan to testify in Rabuka's trial, as the Third Infantry Regiment were regarded as the most loyal to the constitution, and returned to the barracks from a training march just in time to brutally put the mutiny down, as well as rescue Commodore Frank.

Meanwhile...

Fiji PM 'Smiling' Laisenia Qarase's announcement on Saturday that he's pulling the controversial 'amnesty for coup plotters' clauses from the Reconciliation, Tolerance, and Unity Bill, on the grounds that they're unconstitutional, takes much of the heat out the military's stand-off with the government. Far be it for almost everybody else to proclaim, 'We Told You So', but a lot of the grief this Bill's caused could have been avoided if the government had listened to many sources telling them the 'amnesty for coup plotters' clauses were unconstitutional, as well as politcally maladroit and only giving succour to coup plotters and their extreme nationalist associates, when it was first proposed. WikiPedia has a comprehensive portal on The Bill, as everybody in Fiji calls it.

(We call the Fiji PM 'Smiling' because he rarely does, and when he does, it's not a pretty sight.)

And the Fiji Law Society's warned that the Qoliqoli Bill's also unconstitutional. Islands Business' Duncan Wilson has this good feature on Qoliqoli, and the Bill's implications for tourism and fishing. (Qoliqoli, pronnounced Noli Noli, refers to foreshores, beaches, and littoral zones, and seeks to return ownership and control of them to traditional owners.) Vice President Ratu Joni Madrawiwi's On the Record as having reservations about this Bill too.

We amused ourselves all last week following the more hysterical reports about a military coup looming in Fiji, which we thought we'd clarified by referencing to our Web Diary piece on essentially the same stand-off back in January, 2006, and USP's Dr Steven Ratuva's excellent piece in the Fiji Times for Friday, October 27, which Crikey.com reproduced on Thursday last week, off Steve's blog on Fijilive.com. (A couple of Crikey respondents to Steve's piece on Friday just don't get it!) And Yellow Bucket's take on Commodore Frank's vituperations back on October 23, deserves a revisit too. The Bucket - who's identity we know but won't reveal - also has their spies very widely and deeply placed where it matters in the Barmy Balmy Isles, so he/she/it's always worth taking seriously. We eagerly await The Bucket's ruminations on last week's developments, and on the Fiji budget, but they had not been loaded on to Fijivillage.com by Tuesday monring.

Two songs have been playing in our head too - David Crosby's classic 'Deja Vu': "And I feel like I've been here before", and Bob Dylan's 'The Times They Are A'Changin''': "But don't speak too soon 'cos the wheel's still in spin". We had a few private wagers with colleagues that Fiji wouldn't have a coup and it's looking very much like we was right, again. We, and everybody else, fervently hope so.

Sean Leahy's cartoon in The Courier-Mail for Thursday, November 2, was one of the more extreme examples of silliness we noticed (we can't find a link back to it, unfortunately. It showed tourists checking in at 'Fiji Airport - Suva' - Suva doesn't have an airport; Nadi and Nausori are the two major airports on Viti Levu - with three clocks showing departures, arrivals, and next coup at 11.00am. 'Nuff said. I sent Dr Ratuva this piece of nonsense for his collection.) And Dominic Knight's pathetic attempt at humour in the Friday, November 3, SMH Radar was about as helpful as a bad case of tropical crotch rot.

Declaring an interest, Dr Steven Ratuva and I have been mates and occasional drinking buddies for over six years, striking up and lubricating our friendship at the USP Staff Club when I was lecturing in journalism there - at USP, not in the Staff Club - from late 2000. We're also both PhD qualified sociologists with academic interests in conflict, media, sociological theory, and Pacific issues. When the deadly military mutiny erupted at the Fiji military HQ in northern Suva on November 2, 2000, it was Steve who immediately understood what was really going on, thanks to his deep knowledge of and contacts in the Fiji military. Plus, of course, he's a fluent Fijian speaker. I always look Steve up when I'm in Suva, if we can connect we always do so, and conduct deeply informed discourses over several Fiji Bitters. This guy really does know his stuff.

The ABC 7.30 Report's Matt Peacock interviewed Dr Ratuva on Monday night.

Last Friday, Dr Ratuva published another insightful piece in the FT which Web Diaraists should closely read:

"In a normal parliamentary democracy, the line of demarcation between the civil state and the military is very clear.

"The military as an arm of the state is ultimately responsible to civilian rule.

"Unfortunately, our history has denied us the luxury of this clear distinction.

"The coups of 1987 and 2000 destroyed this line in a violent way and our attempts to redraw them have been particularly difficult. This has made our democracy even more fragile and unstable.

"Since the coups have made the lines blurred, it is important to re-draw them through the broader process of consultation and consciousness-raising rather than using the mechanical legalistic method which we have tried but unfortunately has led to further tension.

"This is part of the challenge in making the state and military engage in deep and long term good relationship," Dr Ratuva wrote.

Much as this analysis offends constitutional purists, governance mavens, and policy wonks, it's a fact of life in contemporary Fiji, and not to deeply understand this is to make a fatal error in one's understanding of the place, and thence one's policy responses to the current situation.

By no means is this to gloss or excuse corruption, abuses of power, and worse in the Islands, as almost all locals are as adamantly opposed to and critical of these expressions of domination as we are, because these abuses obviously hurt the people governments and even traditional power structures allegedly exist to serve. It's more a call on all observers to really do our homework, and keep doing it, when trying to make serious sense of the Islands.

Most analysis and reportage I've read has also been mostly thankfully free of any nonsense about Fiji's travails being racially driven - Indo-Fijians versus Indigenous Fijians - though a few passing mentions of this have slipped through. A test your knowledgeable Dr Markia (my Fijian name) always applies to Vulagi reportage about Fiji is whether or not a reporter mentions race as a major dynamic there. If they do, they're not worth taking seriously. Like everything else, any alleged tensions between Indo and Indigenous Fijians must always be very carefully analysed and, with respect to race, largely dismissed. Most Indos, like most Fijians generally, want the quiet life, a better future for their kids, and many have, and are, leaving, which sadly contributes to Fiji's continuing brain drain.

Another journalist and commentator who really understands the Fiji situation is Radio Australia's diplomatic correspondent, Graeme Dobell, who covered the Rabuka coups in 1987, and the coups in 2000. His Correspondent's Report piece on Sunday nuanced the current situation perfectly. Vinaka, Mr Dobell.

I'm not entirely critical of the Howard government sending two warships to stand off Fiji in case things come seriously unglued, only mostly so. Sending the gunboats to stand station off a Pacific paradise teetering on the brink of the abyss, in case terrorised Australians need urgent rescue from the clutches of the crazed coup-riven natives, sure makes for good local copy though. The Acting Military Commander, (Navy) Captain Esala Teleni's reported comments last Friday about the Australian military on the ships being most welcome to come, enjoy Fiji's hospitality, and spend lots of money like the tourists, were hillariously and extremely well made.

What's a bit more serious were calls made, and not for the first time, from some landowners around Nadi for their part of Fiji to have a separate government. With tourism booming in the West, the last thing Westerners need are the crazy Easterners in Suva doing anything to scare investors and tourists away. Always remember that almost any noise coming from Fiji eminates from Suva, and Suva certainly isn't completely representative of Fiji as a whole.

At a more mundane level, Joel Gibson in Saturday's SMH added that "Fiji's cold war is personal, but not always exactly as it sounds". Quite so, and well observed. Mr Dobell also discusses this personal animosity as a factor in the stand-off. Of course, the personal animosity between PM, 'Smiling' Laisenia Qarase, and Commodore Frank complicates matters considerably, if only because personalised conflicts are always the hardest to resolve. After Fiji's second coup in late May, 2000, the 'Get Mara' one, Commodore Frank all but installed 'Smiling' Laisenia Qarase, a banker and, from 1999, a BLV-appointed Senator, on July 4, 2000, as interim prime minister.

In his servicable feature on the situation last Thursday, The Australian's Cameron Stewart noticed that Commodore Frank's a Bauan and 'Smiling' Laisenia Qarase's a Lauan. While too much can be made of the Vanua affiliations of the major players in matters Fijian, they should never be overlooked and neglected when trying to make sense of Fiji (or, indeed, when trying to really understand any Islander. Their affiliations to their family, clan, home island, and land, often described by reference to world-views such as Vanua (Fiji) or Te Fenua (Tuvalu) are often decisive to defining their identity. Prod a Fijian like Dr Ratuva, and he'll affirm, "My God, my country, my land, and Waisale Serevi!") The late Robert Keith-Reid wrote a good summary of land, Vanua, and how land, and abuse of land, figures in modern Fiji over a year ago, and serious students of Fiji must read Rev Dr Tuwere's brilliant book 'Vanua - Towards a Fijian Theology of Place' to really start understanding Vanua.

Peering into our Tanoa (kava bowl) and stirring the grog around, we'll risk a prediction or two, which, into the new week, still seem to stand up.

For certain, there'll be quite a few parachute journalists (and we don't include the ABC's Sean Dorney and Peter Cave, the NZ Herald's Mike Field, or TV NZ's Pacific Reporter Barbara Dreaver in that crew) sitting around in Suva extremely annoyed that they came all this way at considerable expense to report on a coup. And nothing much has happened. Poor bastards. Same deal back in January, 2006, in case you didn't notice. I can think of far worse places to be frustrated than out back of Suva's Holiday Inn on Victoria Parade with its miserable views over the harbour to Jack's Peak, and its terribly attentive waiters. Awful situation. But they've got 'The International Man of Mischief', Peter Foster, to chase, so that'll keep them busy and productive.

Commodore Frank returned from overseas on Saturday, may make a few more dark noises, and will take deep counsel with his advisors. My bet is they'll strongly suggest that, this time, he's over played his hand. But I don't think he'll resign, or be sacked by the President, as was unsuccessfully attempted last week. I doubt he'll be gloating much about the withdrawal of the amnesty clauses in The Bill either.

By the way, the Fijian President, Ratu Josefa Iloilo, while Head of State and Commander in Chief of the Fiji Military Forces, is sadly not a direct player in much of all this because he's gravely ill with Parkinson's disease.

Commodore Frank's High Chief, the Roko Tui Bau, Fiji's Vice-President, Ratu Joni Madrawiwi, will also, for certain, repeat his strong advice to Commodore Frank, given back in January, to pull his head in, shut up, keep out of politics, and make his objections to the government's contentious legislation known through the appropriate channels. When I asked a certain senior Ratu about Commodore Frank back in July, this Ratu sighed loudly, and said that Frank needed to put the events of 2000 behind him, get some personal closure, stick to running the military, and perhaps consider his retirement plans with his place in Fijian history assured, rather than ending his career on a very sour note like that other usurper of democratic rule with strong military connections.

There's an awful picture of Ratu Joni accompanying a Saturday Fiji Times report of his views on the week's events in Fiji.

The Bose Levu Vakaturaga is going to meet later this week to try to assist in resolving the situation. From Commodore Frank's perspective, several chiefs should be in jail for their roles in the the 2000 - 2001 crisis, and some other chiefs should be back in jail after early release for coup convictions. Ratu Joni reckons the BLV has a very important role to play. One very useful role the BLV can play here is to monitor and respond to any extremist noises from some of the crazier Taukei nationalists from whom, thankfully so far and we hope this continues, we've heard nothing. 'Smiling' Laisenia Qarase's dumping of the amnesty clauses in The Bill, and possibly revision of Qoliqoli as well, might provoke some of these dangerous types into something or other, so they deserve watching. That's the task for the police, but the military's also got its own sources.

At least Talanoa - check the Link for an explanation of this extremely important Islander process of serious dialogue and conflict resolution - has been reopened between the government and the military thanks to the good offices of the Acting Military Commander. Always much better for parties to a conflict to be talking with, perhaps shouting or glaring and absolutely not shooting at, each other.

The police, led by Australian, Andrew 'James Bond' Hughes (that's what he's called in Fiji 'cos he looks like Pierce Brosnan) will closely monitor law and order and crack down hard on any opportunistic crime, take their time seriously investigating alleged seditious comments by Commodore Frank, and the the military's early Wednesday morning taking of a routine re-supply shipment of ammunition from Suva's wharf, and chart a 'steady as we go' path through it all. Pretty dramatic stuff on the surface, that 'raid' on the docks, but my reading of it did not cause me serious concerns. Seems to have been something of a stuff-up all round, unfortunately occurring when it did with everybody's paranoia pushing well into the red. Commissioner Hughes told the Fiji media on Monday that he felt it was too dangerous for his men to recover the ammunition the military lifted from the docks.

Methinks most major players will have spent the weekend, variously, getting over jet lag, reviewing the past week's events, regretting a few more extreme statements, and probably arranging for a few discrete meetings around the Tanoa to Talanoa about matters of mutual interest, lubricated by many bilu of yangona. That's the way they usually sort things out in the Balmy Barmy Isles.

And Fiji will return to its usually Balmy Barmy self, replete with summer humidity and torrential rain like many in Australia can hardly remember, a creaky and failing water supply in Suva and surrounds, an increase in VAT to 15% in last week's budget, recriminations, allegations, counter-accusations, and rumours, lots of rumours, the place runs on rumours, and a detectable, but not severe, undercurrent of watchful waryness and unresolved real and perceived greivances.

I'm already planning my next trip back there.

Moce mada and Vinaka.