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Pride and Prejudice: is the third Sino-Japanese war inevitable?

P F Journey's first piece for Webdiary was The Aceh conflict: past, present and Quo Vadis?. He has kindly agreed to be a Webdiary columnist, focusing on Asia.

by PF Journey

On 10th February 2005, North Korea (DPRK) issued a statement that has sent a number of countries into a diplomatic tail-spin. It stated bluntly that:

* We don’t like Bush. "The second-term Bush administration's intention to antagonize the DPRK and isolate and stifle it at any cost has become quite clear. As we have clarified more than once, we justly urged the US to renounce its hostile policy toward the DPRK whose aim was to seek the latter's ‘regime change’ and switch its policy to that of peaceful co-existence between the two countries."

* We don’t like Condi as well. "On the contrary, they have declared it as their final goal to terminate the tyranny, defined the DPRK, too, as an ‘outpost of tyranny’ and blustered that they would not rule out the use of force when necessary."

* We got Nukes. "The US disclosed its attempt to topple the political system in the DPRK at any cost, threatening it with a nuclear stick. This compels us to take a measure to bolster our nuclear weapons arsenal in order to protect the ideology, system, freedom and democracy chosen by its people, and have manufactured nukes for self-defence to cope with the Bush administration's undisguised policy to isolate and stifle the DPRK."

* We are not talking anymore. "We have wanted the six-party talks, but we feel compelled to suspend our participation in the talks for an indefinite period till we have recognized that there is justification for us to attend the talks, and there are ample conditions and atmosphere to expect positive results from the talks."

* We don’t like the Japanese either. "Japan is now persistently pursuing its hostile policy toward the DPRK, toeing the US line. Moreover, it fabricated the issue of false remains over the 'abduction issue' that had already been settled, in a bid to nullify the DPRK-Japan Pyongyang Declaration and stop any process to normalize diplomatic relations with the DPRK."

Although North Korea is grabbing all the headlines, it is only a red herring. The real issue is the little reported rising tensions between the two super powers of East Asia, namely China and Japan.

The Chinese and Japanese people have many things in common: ethnicity, custom, culture and language. They have more things in common than differences. One can almost say they are family. However, like any family, when family members squabble, it can turn really nasty. They have a “love hate” relationship that has been running for thousand of years.

THE SUPERIOR MAN?

The Chinese classic “I Ching” or “The Book of Changes” has influenced Chinese and Japanese thinking through the ages. The book attempts to define the traits of a “Superior Man”. At the core of the contest between China and Japan is the superiority contest between the middle kingdom, the centre of the universe and the land of the rising sun, the children of the sun goddess.

The Chinese perspective

The Chinese like to tell of a story of the first Emperor to unite China, Emperor Qin. He was the emperor who gave us the Great Wall of China and the Warrior Tomb of Xian. In his latter years, he was so worried about his own mortality that in 219 BC he sent his masters of alchemy plus 3000 virgin boys and girls to the Eastern Sea, looking for the elixir of life that would give him immortality. As the legend goes, the search party knew it was an impossible task. With the knowledge they would face execution if they return empty-handed, the party sailed east, never to return and settled on the islands that is now called Japan. So the Chinese like to say that the Japanese are their runaway children.

The powerful early Chinese dynasties considered the states in Korea and Japan as their vassals. The early Japanese rulers paid tribute to the Chinese and even consulted the Chinese court for confirmation of royal titles.

The Japanese upper classes patterned themselves after the Chinese. The Soga, a Japanese court family that rose to prominence with the accession of the Emperor Kimmei about A.D. 531, favoured the adoption of Buddhism and of governmental and cultural models based on Chinese Confucianism. In the 1600s, the famous Tokugawa shogunate established an elaborate bureaucracy modelled after the Chinese imperial bureaucracy.

Kanji, one of the three scripts used in the Japanese language, are in fact Chinese characters. Kanji was adopted around 300AD.

Buddhism was introduced to Japan from China, probably around 538 A.D. The Japanese teaching of Zen was a fusion of Buddhism and the Chinese Taoism. In China it was called the “Ch'an School of Buddhism”. It spread to Japan from China around the 13th century and was called the Zen Buddhism.

Japanese architecture, arts, foods and landscaping has also been heavily influenced by and borrowed from China. For example, the Imperial court at NARA (710 - 794) was modelled upon Chang-an in China during the famous Tang Dynasty. The drinking of tea became popular in China during the 8th century and spread to Japan in the early ninth century

The Japanese perspective

The Japanese like to claim that they are the descendants of the sun goddess Amaterasu, born from the left eye of the creator god Izanagi. According to the legends, Amaterasu sent her grandson Ninigi to Earth, to wed an earthly deity on the island of Kyushu. Ninigi's great-grandson Jimmu, aided by a dazzling sacred bird that rendered his enemies helpless, became the first emperor of Japan in 660 B.C.

Japan has the longest, uninterrupted royal bloodline in the world. The Japanese used to consider their emperor to be divine and because of this fact, they are more than willingly to die for their Emperor, eg: the Kamikaze pilots. It was only after the defeat in the second World Wae that Emperor Hirohito proclaimed that he was not of divine descent.

Japan is the one of the most homogenous countries in the world. They want to believe in the purity and uniqueness of their race, custom, culture and language.

The Japanese are very proud of the 1868 Meiji Restoration, where Japan modernised itself to meet the challenges of the Western powers. During the Meiji Restoration it established a highly centralised, bureaucratic government; a constitution establishing an elected parliament; a well-developed transport and communication system; a highly educated population free of feudal class restrictions; an established and rapidly growing industrial sector based on the latest technology and a powerful army and navy. For a long time, Japan was the only developed country in Asia and the only power that could match the western powers.

The Japanese are very proud of the Russo-Japanese War (1904-05), in which a victorious Japan forced Russia to abandon its expansionist policy in the Far East and became the first Asian power in modern times to defeat a European power.

During the Second War World in Asia, Japan saw itself as a liberator, and was welcomed as one in the beginning. Japan was kicking out the colonialists and was offering Asians a chance to be independent. For example, in July 1943, Japanese Prime Minister Tojo promised the Indonesians self-government in a speech in Jakarta. Later in the year, Sukarno and his deputy (Hatta) were flown to Tokyo to be decorated by the Emperor of Japan.

After the war, the economic miracle of Japan restored Japan’s position as the pre-eminent super power in Asia. This time, it flexed its economic muscle rather than military.

The Early conflicts

The Korean peninsula has been a theatre of conflict between China and Japan over the centuries. Japan has always regarded Korea as their front porch and believe that whoever occupies Korea has a "dagger pointed at the heart of Japan”. However the early conflicts never escalated into any major war.

The first major military conflict

The first direct major military conflict between China and Japan occurred during the Yuan (Mongols) Dynasty. The Yuan forces under Kublai Khan attempted to invade Japan after it conquered Korea. The first advance in 1274 was repulsed by a typhoon. A second massive invasion landed in 1281 and was defeated by another typhoon (known in Japanese as kamikaze - ‘Wind of god’) that struck the islands, destroying half the Yuan force, which was estimated around 15,000 sailors and 900 vessels.

The first Sino-Japanese War, 1894–95

This war was primarily fought over the control of the Korea peninsula. In 1894, due to internal conflict in Korea, both China and Japan intervened in Korea. Japan prevailed in this war and China was forced to turn over the sovereignty of Taiwan, the Penghu Islands (the Pescadores), and the vassalage of Korea. This war sowed the seeds of distrust and suspicion, with the Chinese viewing Japan as both an imperialist threat and an exemplar of modernisation.

The second Sino-Japanese War (1931-1945) – Lest us forget and forgive

The second Sino-Japanese war was not a war in the classical sense; it was more of a resistance war against an invader and occupier. It lasted almost 14 years, making it one of the longest resistance wars in history. Most historians agree that during this period, the Japanese committed against the Chinese people some of the worst atrocities and war crimes in modern recorded history.

The most notorious of these atrocities was “The Rape of Nanking”. The following is an excerpt from one of the many history websites: “Refers to the widespread atrocities conducted against Chinese civilians in and around Nanking after its fall to Japanese troops on December 13, 1937. The number cited in the popular book ‘The Rape of Nanking’ was 260,000... some reports stated that many thousands of the city's women were raped by Japanese soldiers, often repeatedly, before being killed. Dramatic reports by American journalists of Japanese brutality against Chinese civilians helped turn American public opinion against Japan and in part, led to a series of events which culminated in the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor.”

China was weak and in chaos after the collapse of the Qing Dynasty in early 1900s; it was ruled by various regional warlords without a strong central government. The Nationalist government of Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek was the nominal central government but it was riddled with corruption and devoid of any vision for the country. Japanese was a rising power, especially after its victory in the Russo-Japanese war of 1904-1905. Militarism and imperialism was the dominant policy. Japan needed new territories and land that have abundance of natural resources.

China’s Manchuria was an area with abundance of natural resources. It is also located next door. Japan started infiltrating Manchuria as soon as the defeat of Russia in 1905. In September 18 1931, following a Japan fabricated bombing incident at Mukden against Japanese railway, the Japanese army occupied Manchuria and established the puppet state of Manchukuo (February 1932) with the last Manchu Emperor, Pu Yi, as its puppet figurehead. Following another manufactured “incident” at Lugou Bridge (north of Beijing) in 1937, the Japanese began the invasion and occupation of China in earnest with approximately 200,000+ troops. Within 6 months, Japan had captured and occupied most of northern and south-eastern China, including the major cities of Beijing, Shanghai and Nanking.

The forces of Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek only put up a token resistance, because it was more interested in fighting Mao’s communist forces than the Japanese. This led to two famous events in modern Chinese history. First, the famous Long March of 1934. Second, in 1935, a fiercely anti-Communist warlord called Chang Hsueh-liang kidnapped the Generalissimo Chiang and at gun point, forced him to join forces with the Communists to fight against the Japanese invaders.

It has been widely reported and accepted that about 20 million Chinese lost their lives during the Japanese invasion and occupation between 1931-1945. It has left long lasting marks on the Chinese psyche. These are:

Firstly, the Chinese people have not forgotten or forgiven the Japanese for what they did. Especially the Japanese have never officially accepted the blames or apologise for what they did.

Second, the Chinese people are grateful to Mao and his regime for standing up to the Japanese.

The rise of new Japanese patriotism & militarism?

After its total defeat and unconditional surrender in 1945, Japan has been completely emasculated by the USA, politically and militarily. Japan was reduced to more or less just an economic existence and this enabled them to focus on becoming an economic superpower.

In the last decade or so, Japan has slowly been re-building its military capability, although still under the guise of “self defence”. Blatant nationalism and patriotism is also making a come back after six decades of dormancy. Last year, Tokyo voters overwhelmingly re-elected as their governor one of Japan's best-known nationalists, Shintaro Ishihara, co-author of the pugnacious 1989 bestseller ‘The Japan That Can Say No’.

The actions of the current Japanese PM has been very provocative to its neighbours. PM Junichiro Koizumi has visited the highly controversial Yasukuni Shrine four times. Asian Times reported in June 6 2004 that: “More alarming, the visit seemed to indicate that a broader prime-ministerial strategy was at work aimed at reinterpreting the country's wartime past. To Japan's neighbours, the Yasukuni Shrine represents some of the worst aspects of the country's past. During Japan's colonial rule in Asia, its military rulers made the shrine a rallying point for ultra-nationalist sentiment. Today most Japanese primarily view the shrine as a monument to the country's war dead.

However, it also honours several class A war criminals, including wartime prime minister General Hideki Tojo. In recent years, the site has frequently been the focus of international controversy. Both Beijing and Seoul regard a prime-ministerial outing to the shrine as a sign that Japan does not wish to atone for its wartime aggression. Many ordinary Chinese and Koreans find a high-level visit offensive, believing it demonstrates that Japan is unrepentant for the suffering its troops inflicted on the region”.

The rise of new Chinese Dynasty?

Students of Chinese history will tell you that China has had a continuous government for almost 3000 years. These are the Chinese dynasties. The Chinese dynasties are the best example of social Darwinism. The survival of the fittest. Each dynasty was always founded by a strong and charismatic leader, and usually came from a common stock, often the peasant stock. This is a complete antitheses to the Japanese Divine Royal Family.

This leader would go on to become the first Emperor of the dynasty. The average Chinese dynasty would last about 200 years. The chronology of a dynasty generally followed the same pattern. About fifty years of chaos and consolidation, followed by 100 years of peace and prosperity, the zenith of the dynasty, then followed by another fifty years of slow decay and death. The Chinese have a saying that the dynasties are like the tides, they come and go but the people stay. In fact, the Chinese word for dynasty and tide sound exactly the same.

The most famous and powerful Chinese dynasties were the Tang – 618 to 907ad; Song – 960 to 1279, Yuan-1279 to 1368; Ming-1368 to 1644; Qing-1644 to 1911. These Dynasties were influential beyond the Chinese shore. In particular, during the Ming dynasty, between 1405 to 1433, Admiral Cheng Ho made seven voyages to the southern seas. Historical records have shown that he sailed to Southeast Asia, India, Africa and the Arab Peninsula. Some claim that he sailed as far as the New World and Australia. His master vessel was seven times the size of Columbus’s ship to the New World.

For 3000 years the Chinese have lived through many dynasties. Each one was a dictatorship and an authoritarian regime. The Emperor was an absolute ruler. The Chinese have known no other systems. This is the reality. The first presidential election in Taiwan in 2000 was truly historic. Because it was the first time the Chinese people were allowed to elect their own head of state, well some of them anyway.

The Chinese people look at the current regime in Beijing just as another dynasty after the last one (Qing). The founder and the first Emperor was Mao Ze Dong. They believe the 21st century will belong to China just as the 20th century belongs the US and the 19th century belongs to Brittania. They look at the current communistic system as the mean to an end. It just a transient system. It will be sinonised. After all, for those who know the Chinese, they were and are the greatest capitalist in the World.

For those who say that the military might of the US will put a check on the Chinese, it is best to remember the “paper tiger” episode. In the late fifties during the Eisenhower Administration, Mao called the US nuclear bomb arsenal as “paper tiger”. Mao was fond of stating that how many nuclear attacks the US would like to launch against Chinese cities? How many hundreds of millions of Chinese would the US like to kill? But given the size of the Chinese population and time, it would breed and grow, eventually overwhelming the enemy. At that time, China was weak, poor, backward and insular.

Rivalry for Asia’s leadership

Robert Sutter’s China and Japan: Trouble Ahead? in The Washington Quarterly, Autumn 2002, wrote:

"A negative trend in the Sino-Japanese relationship has prompted warnings of intensified rivalry for leadership in Asia. The rise of China’s power and influence in Asian affairs in the 1990s and China’s military assertiveness over Taiwan and the South China Sea coincided with a protracted period of lacklustre Japanese economic performance and weak political leadership. The past disparity of the economic relationship between the two powers adds to ongoing differences over territorial, strategic, historical, and economic issues and has strengthened mutual wariness and antipathy.

"Japanese opinion-makers have targeted China’s increasing power as Japan’s key long-term security concern. Many Japanese view China’s size and remarkable economic growth as undercutting their country’s leading economic role in Asia. Rising Japanese nationalism, generational change in Japanese leadership, and Beijing’s loss of moral standing in the eyes of the Japanese have also contributed to this sentiment and diminished Japan’s willingness to accommodate Chinese demands on historical and other issues.

"On the other side, long-standing Chinese concerns about Japan’s impressive military capabilities have increased since 1996 as a result of U.S.-Japanese agreements broadening Japan’s strategic role in Asia to include recent Japanese naval deployments in the Indian Ocean. Recent plans for a Japanese- U.S.-Australian strategic dialogue have elicited repeated expressions of concern from China.

"Chinese leaders have appealed to nationalism and the sensibility that foreign aggressors have victimized China in the past. These feelings have largely focused on Japan, by far the most despised foreign aggressor in modern Chinese history, and have exacerbated Chinese antipathy toward Japan."

Current Hotspot

The current hot spot of dispute between China and Japan is Diaoyu islands (called "Senkaku" in Japanese), a a group of eight uninhabited islands on the continental shelf separated from the Liu Chiu islands by a deep underwater trench. These eight uninhabited islands and barren rocks have a land area of only 6.3 square kilometres. The islands are approximately 120 nm northeast of Taiwan, 200 nm east of the Chinese mainland, and 200 nm southeast of Okinawa. Just to complicate the issue, Taiwan is also claiming Sovereignty of the Senkaku Islands in dispute.

It has a rich fishing ground and claimed to be rich in oil and gas. Whether this is real or not is yet to be confirmed. However, there is no dispute over its strategic location. It sits right in the middle of busy shipping lane.

The Japanese has been very aggressive in the last couple of years “protecting” these disputed islands. On January 15, 2004 patrol boats from the Japanese Maritime Self Defense Forces allegedly attacked two Chinese fishing vessels in waters near the disputed. As well as, last November, Japanese destroyers chased a Chinese submarine from around the islands.

The Japan Times: May 15, 2004 reported that: "It is the first time internal agency documents have been found to assume that China might attack Japanese territory. The agency's Ground Staff Office believes China might invade the remote islands in Okinawa Prefecture to block joint support operations for Taiwan by Japan and the United States, according to the documents obtained Thursday".

January 18, 2005 , The China People Daily reported: “Japan cannot add Chinese territory into its military plan – The latest release of a set of Japan's detailed emergency military programmes against China on the issue of the Diaoyu Islands has put Tokyo's sincerity in doubt, having said on many occasions how much it values peace and friendship with China and having vowed not to go to war with its neighbours again. The plan, which was first released in November, calls for steps such as the dispatch of navy destroyers, submarines and fighter planes as well as the deployment of a 55,000-personnel special and rapid response unit when there are signs that foreign troops are launching attacks against the remote islands off Kyushu and Okinawa.

Pride and Prejudice

It was Napoleon who said, “If China awakens, the world will tremble.” Well, China is awaking and soon will be walking and running. Japan was driven by its pride and prejudice during the second world war, in particular its invasion and treatment of China. Pride because it was the only super power in Asia and its desire to conquer. Prejudice because it saw the Chinese not as equal, but as sub-human, like the Nazi did with the Jews. Like the Jews, the Chinese have said to themselves: “Never Again.”

Currently, the prejudice might have gone underground but Japan is still very much driven by its pride. It is the Japanese’s legendary pride of “not to lose face at any cost” that has prevented them for more openly accepting blames and responsibility for their misdeeds. Bob Dylan wrote in his song “With God on our side” that “the history books tell it, they tell it so well”. If only the Japanese history books are allowed to tell the real stories.

When, not if, China becomes the real global super power in the world in the next few decades, she can be forgiven for wanting to deal the Japanese pride with her own prejudice.

The China-Australia-Japan Triangle

China displaced the United States last year as Japan's biggest single trading partner. How long before it becomes Australia’s biggest trading partner? At the moment, China is already Australia’s third largest trading partner, after the United States and Japan.

Like China, Australia too has its own bad memories of Japan’s misdeeds during the second world war, like Changi and the Burma railway. Japan was the only country that have directly and physically attacked Australia mainland. Again, like in China, the anti Japanese feeling in Australia is also just below the surface.

The Chinese and Australians have enjoyed a longer association, stretching back to the 15th century where the Chinese Admiral Cheng Ho was reported to have first visited Australia northwest coast. Between 1852 and 1889, there were 40,721 arrivals from China to work on the goldfields of Victoria. Didn’t Bob Hawke shed some tears for the Chinese students? To the present day, the Chinese have enjoyed a warmer place in the Australian society. Some even suggest that the Aussie expression of “dinkum” was derived from the Chinese expression of “real gold”.

With these in mind, has Australia been barking up the wrong tree as far as its strategic foreign policies are concerned? In particular, the closeness of relationships between Bush and Howard has caused concerned in Beijing. More importantly, the Howard Government is practising “economically warm, politically hot” doctrine with Bush. With China, Australia seems to be doing the opposite in “economically hot, politically cold”.

The Chinese has also expressed concerned about the US-Australia-Japan Strategic Dialogue. It worries that the Dialogue is US-Australia-Japan ganging up against China on issues like Taiwan and China’s increasing influence in Southeast Asia. It is no accident that Japan and Australia are the most staunch supporter of the US policy in Iraq despite strong domestic opposition.

Australia should use its special relationships with the Chinese to build a solid and lasting partnership, so that “politically hot and economically hot”. A partnership that will allow Australia to play a part to diffuse the danger of a possible war between China and Japan. As scenario as described by Simon Tisdall in The Guardian, 18/1/05, “In other words, as China stands up, so too again may Japan”. I am not sure that the current Howard Government is capable because it appears to let prejudice to stand in its way. It only goes where the Sheriff goes.

The Koreas and Taiwan Wildcards?

The whole issue is further complicated by two long running sores in East Asia, namely the two Koreas and Taiwan. Add to this mixture the strategic interests of the other two giants, namely USA and Russia, and East Asia has the potential to be the place where the Super Powers really do confront each other. This alone deserves a full analysis in future articles.

The Last Words

It should go to Mr. Gyohten (President of the Institute for International Monetary Affairs and a former chairman of Bank of Tokyo):

"'China will become the sole leader in Asia, with Japan as an important subordinate,' Toyoo Gyohten, a Japanese business leader, warned in a speech last fall. Gyohten questioned the wisdom of antagonizing China out of pique over Chinese harping on World War II. 'Many Japanese believe they have already apologized,' he said. 'But I, for one, believe that we should apologize as many times as possible.' (NYT, Feb 7, 2005).
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