Webdiary - Founded and Inspired by Margo Kingston

From the end of February 2007, Webdiary will no longer be publishing articles sourced from Project Syndicate, including those from Joseph S Nye. Subsequent articles in Professor Nye's Of Might and Right series can be accessed via the Project Syndicate site here.

Faced with uncertainty about the future of liberal democracy in Russia, how should western countries respond? This question is particularly difficult for the Bush administration, which is torn between the president’s early endorsement of Putin and his pro-democracy agenda.

"When the Soviet Union collapsed, many predicted the end of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Yet a few weeks ago, NATO held its summit meeting in the Latvian capital of Riga, formerly part of the USSR.": Joseph S Nye

"With Congress lost to the Democrats and exit polls showing six in ten voters opposed to the Iraq war, Bush finally fired Donald Rumsfeld, his disastrous secretary of defense. But while Americans gave the Bush low marks on the war in Iraq, polls show that they still support him on the struggle against terrorism. Unfortunately, America is not winning the "war on terrorism." An official National Intelligence Estimate confirmed that more jihadist terrorists are being recruited than the US is killing.": Joseph S Nye

"Fortunately, there are signs that both China and Japan are seeking to back away from the impasse of recent years. While Abe has maintained his position on Yasukuni, his summit with Chinese President Hu Jintao was a promising step forward. Some Chinese analysts, for their part, recognize the danger in stimulating too much nationalism toward Japan. The US should quietly try to nudge these steps forward. The US-Japan alliance remains crucial to stability in East Asia, but it takes three sides to make a triangle. " Joseph S Nye

"US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld once said that the measure of success in this war is whether the number of terrorists we are killing and deterring is larger than the number that the terrorists are recruiting. By this standard, we are doing badly. In November 2003, the official number of terrorist insurgents in Iraq was given as 5,000. This year, it was reported to be 20,000. As Brigadier General Robert Caslen, the Pentagon’s deputy director for the war on terrorism, put it, “We are not killing them faster than they are being created.”" Joseph S Nye

"A progressive realist foreign policy would start with an understanding of the strength and limits of American power. The US is the only superpower, but preponderance is not empire or hegemony. America can influence but not control other parts of the world. Progressive realism requires America to prepare for the future by defining its national interest in a way that benefits all." Joseph S Nye

"The fires of the Middle East must not be allowed to distract the world’s attention from the threat posed by North Korea’s nuclear ambitions, which it demonstrated by its recent test of a long-range missile. Yet that is what appears to be happening." Joseph S Nye

"Globalization has two driving forces: technology and policy. Thus far, policy has reinforced the flattening effects of technology. As the world’s largest economy, the US has taken the lead in promoting policies that reduce barriers. But events could reverse such policies. Some critics of globalization might welcome such an outcome. But the result, as we saw after 1914, would be the worst of both worlds – reversal of the economic globalization that spreads technology and power, but reinforcement of negative dimensions of military and ecological globalization, such as war, terror, climate change, and the spread of infectious diseases. In that case, the flat world could become a desert." Joseph S Nye

"President George W Bush has said that Iran’s development of nuclear weapons is unacceptable, and recent press accounts suggest that his administration is exploring preventive military options. In Iran, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has defied the diplomatic efforts of the European Union and others, using the nuclear issue to stir rally domestic support. Is it too late to prevent a showdown?" Joseph S Nye

"Rumsfeld’s mistrust of the European approach contains a grain of truth. Europe has used the attractiveness of its Union to obtain outcomes it wants, just as the US has acted as though its military pre-eminence could solve all problems. But it is a mistake to count too much on hard or soft power alone. The ability to combine them effectively is 'smart power'." Joseph S Nye

"Earlier this month, Mikhail Gorbachev celebrated his 75th birthday with a concert and conference at his foundation in Moscow. Unfortunately, he is not popular with the Russian people, who blame him for the loss of Soviet power. But, as Gorbachev has replied to those who shout abuse at him, 'Remember, I am the one who gave you the right to shout'." Joseph S Nye